The declaration of a national energy emergency with an executive order by American President Trump and the “drill baby drill” slogan incorporated in his inaugural speech outline the parameters of maximizing the development of American energy resources in the United States and other geographic regions. The East Mediterranean constitutes an area of geopolitical significance to Washington where energy and defense arrangements with regional countries ensure that the United States retains its superiority over rival powers, such as China.
In a changing world, the East Mediterranean serves as a geopolitical platform where the strategic choices of the US embrace blends of neoclassical realism and neoliberalism to advance American strategic interests, particularly those pertaining to energy and freedom of navigation to sea lanes, and choke points.
Neoliberalism is identified with the trilateral and quadripartite partnerships, the miniatures of multilateralism, that are expected to dominate American grand strategy in the East Mediterranean constituting the structural components of President Trump’s energy and defense policies. The miniatures of multilateralism have been notably sealed during the American President’s first term with the signing into law of the Eastern Mediterranean Security and Energy Partnership Act of 2019 that lies on three pillars. First, trilateral coordination and dialogue between Greece, Israel and Cyprus on energy cooperation and security of infrastructure owned or operated by American companies. Second, natural gas exploration and development as a means for economic gains and energy security for the region and Europe supporting the latter’s efforts to diversify away from Russian energy. Third, maintenance of a robust American naval presence in the region that projects power at the heart of the East Mediterranean.
Neoclassical realism enshrines military capabilities to maintain or increase power affecting energy partnerships in search of mutual economic gains. It is in this context that the United States actively supports Greece, Israel, Cyprus and Egypt in their conduct of regular air, ground and naval exercises to cement multilateral energy cooperation serving as a backbone for the maintenance of East Mediterranean stability. Most representative is the annual naval exercise code-named «Noble Dina» that is conducted between Greece, Cyprus and Israel with the participation of American forces involving naval vessels and helicopters that practice search and rescue exercises and anti-submarine warfare in a collective effort to enhance stability over the Mediterranean Sea. “Eagle Defender” is yet another naval exercise conducted between the United States and Egypt that aims to ensure maritime security in the Red Sea and protect maritime energy infrastructure against conventional and asymmetric threats.
Lessons of War: American LNG and Europe’s quest for energy security
The Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars have brought to the forefront the validity of President Trump’s grand strategy in that conflict is more costly than peace, thereby states should prioritize energy cooperation to reduce reliance on Russian energy while creating interdependencies in the form of energy supply agreements that can deliver dividends of peace. The export of gas from Israel to Jordan and Egypt falls in this category. Egypt receives natural gas from the Leviathan project in accordance with an agreement signed between the Israeli field’s partners and Egyptian company Blue Ocean Energy, formerly known as Dolphinus Holdings, while Jordan started receiving gas from the Leviathan field in January 2020 via a 50-kilometer pipeline in accordance with a 15-year company-to-company agreement. The Israel-Hamas war has surfaced regional interdependencies in terms of shared interests and vulnerabilities as evidenced in the Tamar field’s five-week halt of operations that led to interruption of supply to Egypt, though not to Jordan, thereby having temporarily deepened Cairo’s energy shortages and lengthened its rolling blackouts.
For its part, the war on Ukraine enhanced Europe’s ability to counter Russia’s energy leverage, a key element of the American grand strategy for Europe and the East Mediterranean, by diversifying energy sources and banning Russian oil imports. Initiatives like the REPowerEU plan enabled the diversification of energy supplies, having safeguarded European citizens and businesses from energy shortages. Imports of pipeline gas from Russia have drastically diminished, and volumes of LNG imports from reliable partners, like the United States and Norway, have been on the increase.
The diversification of energy supply routes and American LNG imports to Europe was accelerated through countries, like Greece. In practice, the Greek port city of Alexandroupolis located in northeast Greece and the Revithoussa LNG onshore terminal located southwest of Athens have enhanced shared transatlantic objectives to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy. Since the start of the war on Ukraine, Greece has received American LNG at the Revithoussa LNG terminal, which has been upgraded twice to manage bigger LNG volumes and maintain increased LNG gasification capacity, thereby reinforcing security of gas supply for Greece and the extended region. Increased LNG shipments received at the Revithoussa terminal also maintained the energy market of Bulgaria when Gazprom deprived in April 2022 the Balkan country by 90 percent of its gas needs.
Additionally, the swift construction of the Offshore Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) in the city of Alexandroupolis for the transfer of LNG to the Balkans and Southeast Europe attracted American and European support. Alexandropoulis FSRU facilitates the offloading and transfer of 5.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to the Balkans and Southeast Europe. The FSRU received its first American LNG cargo in mid-February 2024 highlighting the role of the US as a critical supplier of LNG to Greece, the Balkans and Southeast Europe. The United States-Europe route is shorter and LNG transportation costs are significantly lower than the Asia route ensuring that increased demand for gas can be met by the US particularly for the Balkans and Eastern Europe, where most countries are landlocked or have short coastlines.
Chevron expands its East Mediterranean footprint
The “drill baby drill” slogan of President Trump is a prime component of his political rhetoric for increased oil and gas production and drilling of new wells by American majors. All this, on the condition that development and exploration costs remain profitable, and that OPEC+ maintains the agreement to withhold production to balance the physical market and, thus, prevent extreme market volatility ensuring that American producers gain stable profits and promoting moderate expansion. American energy majors shift their focus on the East Mediterranean responding to profitability estimates, political and price signals, and embracing technological advancements, like AI-driven well optimization, that guarantee earnings even at lower prices.
The entry of American energy major Chevron into the Israeli gas sector in early 2021 with the acquisition of American Noble Energy with a deal valued $13 billion that included Noble’s $8 billion in debt, presented a major milestone for Israel’s energy development program. The participation of Chevron in the Israeli gas landscape has not only fortified the position of Israel as a reliable gas producer in the Arab world but has also expanded the energy major’s investment portfolio to the East Mediterranean. As known, Chevron has developed energy assets in Iraqi Kurdistan, the UAE, and the neutral zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Chevron that operates Israeli Leviathan and Tamar fields has guaranteed the redirection of gas pipeline exports to Egypt through the Fajr gas pipeline from the point of entry on the border between Israel and Jordan, to the point of delivery on the border between Jordan and Egypt close to Aqaba. The aim lies in preventing Israeli gas from being kept hostage to geopolitical conflicts or tensions that could halt the flow of gas through the East Mediterranean Gas (EMG) pipeline.
Chevron has extended regionally by cementing its presence in Cyprus’s and Egypt’s energy exploration and development programs, while it has recently expressed interest for two maritime blocks in the south of the Greek island of Crete. Specifically, Chevron leads the consortium for the Cypriot Aphrodite gas field, estimated to contain 4.2 trillion cubic feet of gas, and reached an agreement with the government of Cyprus to proceed with an updated development plan. The development plan foresees connection of the Aphrodite field via a subsea pipeline to Dutch Shell’s underutilized West Delta Deep Marine facilities offshore Egypt and from there to the Idku Egyptian liquefaction facilities. The development plan also provides for the establishment of a Floating Production Unit (FPU) within Cyprus’s Exclusive Economic Zone and for the export of 50 percent of the estimated output, while the remaining 50 percent will be directed to the Cypriot domestic market. To advance the commercialization of the Aphrodite field, Chevron signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Egypt and Cyprus acknowledging that Aphrodite has become an integral part of the American major’s regional network of high-reliability assets.
Concurrently, Chevron advances its drilling operations in concession areas across Egypt’s northwestern coastline and the Red Sea and plans the fast-track development of the Nargis offshore discovery to increase Egypt’s gas production. In enhancing its East Mediterranean portfolio, Chevron has expressed interest in deepwater exploration in the southern Ionian Sea, and most recently, in southwest of Crete that is in the southern part of the Aegean Sea. The American major’s interest is profoundly accelerated by estimates, based on seismic surveys, according to which, energy resources in Greece are close to 2600 billion cubic meters or 91.8 trillion cubic feet. Chevron is expected to undertake the operatorship of four concession areas, namely Block A2, South Peloponnese, South Crete I, and South Crete II, that cover a maritime space of approximately 47 thousand square kilometers. These areas are adjacent to concessions where ExxonMobil, an additional American energy major operates two offshore blocks southwest of Crete, thereby de facto consolidating the East Mediterranean’s energy significance.
As the global energy landscape evolves, President Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency and the “drill baby drill” slogan encourages American energy majors with strong balance sheets and efficient operations to expand across regions, like the East Mediterranean. The end goal lies in generating corporate earnings, stimulating economic growth, and enhancing energy security at regional and international levels.
