The political situation in Central and South Asia is developing quite rapidly. There is a dynamic that allows us to draw some preliminary conclusions. The political and economic dynamics of recent years have formed a certain regional structure of international relations. New influential players and outsiders have appeared in this international structure of the region. Some regional powers have consolidated their status, while others have lost their positions and weakened their influence. The Taliban managed to stabilize the situation and almost come out of diplomatic isolation. Pakistan was unable to maintain its dominant influence on the Taliban and entered into a tough clinch with them and lost a significant part of its influence in Kabul. India has managed to strengthen its economic presence in the Afghan provinces. China has also strengthened its economic and diplomatic presence in the region.
The Taliban has managed to firmly establish its power throughout Afghanistan. The movement has managed to consolidate its monopoly on violence in every Afghan province, in all major cities, and in important settlements. The Taliban’s dependence on their sponsors and mentors is decreasing. The Pakistani military is in a complex and multi-layered conflict with the Taliban. Rank-and-file members of the radical Islamist movement that rules the Afghan state do not trust the Pakistani military. The change in relations between the two countries and political leaders has become very noticeable. At the same time, relatives of some Taliban leaders continue to live in Pakistani cities, which leaves certain mechanisms of influence of Islamabad and Rawalpindi on Kabul and Kandahar. But this influence is declining.
The Taliban’s Afghanistan is becoming more and more independent from the Pakistani military. The economic balance and trade status quo are changing. India has caught up with Pakistan and has become Afghanistan’s largest trading partner. Both countries account for about 40% of the trade balance with Kabul: Pakistan (41%) and India (40%). However, there is a trend that suggests that Delhi will soon overtake Islamabad and may become Afghanistan’s largest trading partner. China’s influence is also growing, both in the economic and political spheres. Chinese diplomats are pursuing an active policy with Afghan partners and leaders of Central Asian countries. The region’s capitals are in agreement and willing to cooperate with Beijing.
The diplomatic and political isolation of the Taliban is gradually weakening. Thus, the head of the political bureau and the movement’s ambassador to Qatar, Suhail Shaheen, said in an interview with Russian media that a possible lifting of the ban on the organization is in the interests of Russia and Afghanistan. “Such a decision is long overdue for strengthening bilateral relations and cooperation,” Shaheen noted. If the movement’s status is revised, this could open up new opportunities for dialogue between Moscow and Kabul, including the fight against terrorism, the Taliban representative noted. The Russian Prosecutor General’s Office recently appealed to the Supreme Court with a request to lift sanctions on the Taliban. It is worth noting that the Taliban is currently banned in Russia and recognized as a terrorist organization. However, in recent years, a dialogue has emerged between the two sides, and the Taliban have demonstrated a certain evolution and modernization of their policy.
The influential president of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, also noted the successes of the Taliban. He said the day before that the stabilization of the situation in Afghanistan under the Taliban had become a reality. According to him, the current authorities have reoriented their efforts to infrastructure projects and the fight against drug production. Among the key achievements are the modernization of airports, the development of railways, and the construction of energy and water supply facilities. Mirziyoyev paid special attention to the sharp reduction in opium poppy cultivation.
contradictions within the leadership of the Taliban movement, which could lead to a serious domestic political crisis in Afghanistan. According to the author, the main line of conflict runs between the traditional Kandahar wing, represented by the Durrani tribes, and the relatively autonomous Haqqani network. The disagreements affect key issues of domestic and foreign policy, including relations with Pakistan.
It is worth noting that the contradictions within the Taliban leadership could lead to a serious domestic political crisis. And if these contradictions are supported by powerful external forces, the likelihood of destabilization increases. The main line of conflict runs between the traditional Kandahar wing, represented by the Durrani tribes, and the relatively autonomous Haqqani network. The disagreements affect key issues of domestic and foreign policy, including relations with Pakistan. It should be said that the historical specificity of the Haqqani network, which, as the article claims, demonstrated a more pragmatic approach, maintaining contacts with Pakistani intelligence services and the military. At the height of the growing discord, during Sirajuddin Haqqani’s absence from Kabul, the Kandahar faction increased its influence in the areas bordering Pakistan, traditionally considered Haqqani’s zone of influence.
The continuation of current contradictions without finding a compromise could lead to serious destabilization. Pakistan increases pressure on Kabul amid the failure of talks with the Taliban. Pakistani authorities, having failed in their attempts to reach an agreement with the Afghan Taliban on containing the activities of the Pakistani wing of the Taliban, have once again resorted to harsh measures against Afghan refugees. Despite initial plans to begin mass deportations in early April, Islamabad unexpectedly announced that it was postponing the operation by 10 days. This year, Pakistani authorities intend to expel up to 3 million Afghans, including tens of thousands of those who fled to the country after the Taliban came to power in 2021.
Particularly noteworthy is the government’s demand that Afghan migrants be banned from the capital region, including Islamabad and Rawalpindi. This decision is particularly worrying given that many of these people hope to resettle in other countries. This is an obvious pressure on the Taliban and Kabul after the failure of diplomatic talks. In the last few days alone, 2,772 people have been detained in Punjab province, of whom more than 1,300 have already been sent back to Afghanistan. About 1,100 Afghans have been deported to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, local officials say. These measures are part of Islamabad’s new immigration policy.
In short, the political and economic dynamics in the Middle East and South and Central Asia are actively developing. The balance of power and influence of regional actors is changing. The Taliban is succeeding in strengthening its position and gradually emerging from diplomatic isolation. Pakistan is losing its influence in the region and is in a difficult political and economic situation. India, China, and some Central Asian states are strengthening their economic position in Afghanistan and Central Asia.
