Tigray, a region with a profound historical legacy and a pivotal role in Ethiopia’s political landscape, is at a moment of extreme peril. After years of devastating genocidal war, deliberate economic collapse, and political turmoil, the region faces an existential crisis that could determine not only its future but also the broader stability of the Horn of Africa. Once a symbol of resilience and resistance, Tigray now stands fractured—its economy shattered, its political institutions in limbo, and its social fabric strained to the breaking point.
The Geopolitical Struggle: How Ethiopia and Eritrea Exploit Tigray
Tigray’s precarious situation is not solely a result of internal struggles; it is also a consequence of deliberate efforts by both Ethiopia and Eritrea to weaken the region and exploit its vulnerabilities. As tensions escalate between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the prospect of renewed war between the two nations looms ominously on the horizon. Such a conflict would not only plunge the region into further chaos but would also force Tigray into the middle of yet another devastating war—either as a battleground or as a compelled supplier of fighters and resources. Given Tigray’s current fragile state, another war could prove catastrophic, spelling disaster for its people and creating a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented scale.
The Ethiopian Federal Government, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has systematically worked to fragment Tigray’s political and military structures, ensuring that the region remains too weak to challenge federal authority.
Ethiopia’s federal constitution grants Tigray autonomy over its internal affairs. Specifically, Article 52 of the Ethiopian constitution states:
“States shall have the following powers and functions:
(a) To establish a State administration that best advances self-government, a democratic order based on the rule of law; to protect and defend the Federal Constitution ;”
However, as outlined in my article, the Ethiopian Federal Government has actively sought to undermine this autonomy through a divide-and-rule strategy designed to weaken Tigray’s political and military capabilities. This has left the region vulnerable, not only to internal fragmentation but also to external manipulation by hostile actors, most notably Eritrea.
At the same time, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki—long a rival of the TPLF—has seized the opportunity to exert influence over Tigray, using it as a pawn in his broader regional ambitions. By keeping Tigray divided and weakened, Eritrea ensures that it remains a buffer zone against both Ethiopia and potential Tigrayan resistance.
The deteriorating relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea further complicates this already volatile situation. As tensions between the two nations escalate, the likelihood of renewed war increases. If such a conflict breaks out, Tigray will once again find itself caught in the middle—forced to either participate in a war not of its own making or suffer the consequences of becoming a battleground for regional powers.
Tigray Interim Regional Council – A Viable Solution
A viable solution in this increasingly dangerous situation is to fully empower the Tigray Interim Regional Council (TIRC)—the transitional council tasked with decision making powers. Through various efforts, the Tigray Interim Regional Council (TIRC) was established. It is a truly inclusive regional body and is vested with decision making powers. If it is able to act, it can nominate and elect leaders of the Tigray Interim Administration.
However, the TIRC has struggled to assert its authority effectively. This is due to military factions aligned with Debretsion Gebremichael actively threatening members of the TIRC, creating internal instability at a time when unity is critical. This threat plays directly into the hands of Ethiopia and Eritrea, both of whom benefit from a divided Tigray. If these internal conflicts persist, Tigray will remain vulnerable, unable to mount an effective defense against external threats or chart a path toward long-term stability.
The Role of the International Community: A Moral AND Strategic Imperative
Given the severity of the crisis, the international community cannot afford to remain passive observers. The United Nations, the African Union, and major world powers must takedecisive action to prevent Tigray from becoming the next major humanitarian and strategic disaster in the Horn of Africa.
For the TIRC to succeed, it must be able to govern effectively. This includes, for one, ensuring that all factions within Tigray recognize its authority as an inclusive and legitimate body with decision making power. Secondly, all financial and logistical support must be channelled through this body, enabling the council to govern effectively. Thirdly, there should be mediation efforts by the international community, among the divided factions, including the military, as outlined in my previous article. In addition, there should be condemnation from international community, African Union and human rights organizations against threats directed towards Tigray Interim Council.
Without these fundamental actions, the interim council will remain a symbolic entity, unable to exercise real power or prevent Tigray from slipping further into instability. And, without this intervention, Tigray will continue to be manipulated by external forces, fuelling Horn of Africa’s conflicts.
Diplomatic Pressure on Ethiopia and Eritrea
The United Nations, African Union, and key international players must also exert diplomatic pressure on both Ethiopia and Eritrea, demanding that they:
• Respect Tigray’s autonomy under the current federalist constitution.
• Cease all attempts to undermine the Tigray Interim Regional Council.
• Refrain from using Tigray as a geopolitical bargaining chip.
If Ethiopia and Eritrea continue to engage in destabilizing activities, they must face tangible consequences, including sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and economic restrictions.
Tigray’s Future: A Test for the Stability of the Horn of Africa
The fate of Tigray is not just a local issue; it is a litmus test for the broader stability of the Horn of Africa. If Tigray collapses into further chaos, the consequences will be felt far beyond its borders. The region’s survival depends on decisive action from the international community to ensure that it does not become yet another failed state in an already fragile region.
The alternative—continued division, external exploitation, and potential war—would be disastrous not just for Tigray, but for all of Horn of Africa.
