Europe faces a complex geopolitical landscape. Tensions have risen in transatlantic relations with the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Meanwhile, the deepening Russia-China partnership poses a direct security threat to Europe. In this environment, Europe must adopt a multi-faceted hedging strategy. This will be necessary to safeguard European interests and maintain influence on the global stage.
Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, ongoing since 2022, has upended Europe’s post-Cold War security architecture, with Putin’s regime transitioning to a war economy. This, combined with China’s backing, creates a dual threat that Europe must address, as detailed in a CSIS analysis on deterring Russia.
A strained US-Europe relationship under Trump’s second term, policies that include potential 25% tariffs on allies like Canada and Mexico, and reduced NATO commitment raise concerns about US reliability. However, the Atlantic Council’s report, “Transatlantic Horizons,” emphasizes the need for a collaborative US-EU agenda but acknowledges the challenges posed by Trump’s approach.
This turbulence is particularly notable given historical transatlantic cooperation, with European perception of the US not as an “ally” but a “necessary partner.”. But Europe needs to be prepared for scenarios where US support might be limited or even decline in the current period, especially in security matters.
Compounding this challenge is the strengthening Russia-China partnership, often described as a “no limits” alliance. A Council on Foreign Relations report from January 2025 highlights their cooperation in AI technology, trade, and military support, particularly with China providing an economic lifeline to Russia amidst Western sanctions.
Understanding the Sino-Russian Axis
The Sino-Russian partnership is a transactional arrangement with underlying tensions, including historical grievances and border disputes. China has not forgotten the “unequal” treaty of Peking in 1860, which led to the cession of significant territory in Siberia, and some Chinese maps still show this region with its former Chinese names.
Recent incidents, such as the publication of a map by China’s national resources ministry showing Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island as Chinese territory, highlight the ongoing border disputes between the two nations.
Despite these underlying tensions, it will be challenging for external parties to drive a wedge in the Sino-Russian relationship, as both countries are currently focused on perceived threats from the West.
The China-Russia relationship is currently at its strongest since the end of the Cold War, while the US and Russia have long-standing mutual grievances. The two Eurasian powers are seized with their perceived immediate and acute threats from the West, and they have a keen awareness of their vulnerabilities if each stands alone to face Western pressures against their perceived vital interests.
As a result, a sudden reconciliation between the US and Russia is unlikely, especially given the complexity of their historical relationship and the lack of a clear catalyst for change. Overall, the idea of a US-Russia alliance to counter China is improbable due to the complex web of economic, historical, and geopolitical factors at play.
Additionally, the notion of a US-Russia alliance to counter China—as the US and China did to counter the USSR in the 1970s—appears unlikely due to several factors. The economic structures of China and Russia are highly complementary, with close economic ties between the two nations.
In contrast, the US and Russia are competitors in key economic sectors, such as energy. This fundamental difference in their economic relationships makes it challenging for the US and Russia to find common ground for a potential alliance.
Managing the USA
To hedge against these uncertainties, Europe must adopt a multi-pronged strategy, balancing self-reliance with international cooperation. The first priority is enhancing its defense capabilities, given the immediate threat from Russia and the potential for reduced US support.
According to a Bruegel report, “Defending Europe without the US,” Europe may need to significantly increase its military capabilities to deter Russian aggression if the US withdraws support. The report estimates this could require:
· 300,000 additional troops
· At least €250 billion in annual defense spending increases
To achieve this, Europe should invest in advanced military technologies, increase ammunition production, and improve interoperability among EU member states. But achieving this level of defense integration and capability enhancement will face significant political and logistical challenges. Member states need to overcome historical reluctance to cede sovereignty in security matters to coordinating defense procurement, joint training exercises, and the development of shared military capabilities will be crucial. However, foreign policy among EU member states towards China is fragmented and inconsistent, making this a key obstacle.
Despite the turbulence, pragmatically speaking, Europe should continue to engage with the US to maintain some level of cooperation. Participating in NATO and other transatlantic frameworks, a partnership to counter the China-Russia axis works in Europe’s interests.
To sustain US engagement, Europe should consider offering economic incentives and support on global issues. However, Europe must also acknowledge the likelihood of waning US support as the US pivots to focus on strategic competition with China.
In parallel, Europe must hedge against the possibility of a volatile trade battle with the US. This will require a multi-pronged approach to safeguard European interests and maintain influence on the global stage.
Maintaining this delicate balance will require deft diplomacy and a clear-eyed assessment of the potential trajectories of US-Europe relations. A collaborative US-Europe agenda is needed, but the path forward is uncertain.
Brussels must be prepared to adapt its approach as the situation evolves, potentially shifting the focus of engagement with the US from security to economic and technological cooperation, or vice versa, depending on the priorities of the White House administration.
Dealing with China
Europe’s relationship with China requires an evolved approach as it becomes increasingly complex. It is marked by both economic interdependence and strategic competition. The relationship has deteriorated significantly since the EU introduced a three-part strategy in 2019 based on partnership, competition, and systemic rivalry.
The relationship has been further undermined by China’s actions:
· Supporting Russia’s aggression in Ukraine
· Pursuing an increasingly anti-Western foreign policy aimed at altering the international rules-based system
China has clearly acted against European interests, including through its support for the Russian economy.
Given these developments, Europe must re-evaluate its approach to China. The previous strategy of partnership, competition, and systemic rivalry is no longer sufficient. A more nuanced and adaptive approach is needed to manage this complex and challenging relationship going forward.
The optimal approach for Europe’s relationship with China is one of co-existence. While cooperation is still needed to address global problems like climate change, in which China plays a key role, the EU cannot accept Chinese cooperation at any price. To reduce China’s leverage, Europe should pursue a strategy of derisking. This involves:
· Forging partnerships with partners like Australia, India, Japan, and ASEAN
· Reducing critical dependencies on China, especially for energy and digital transitions
Derisking has already begun, but more needs to be done to understand how it can continue without creating conflict. This multi-faceted approach of building alternative partnerships and reducing vulnerabilities is key to managing the China challenge while maintaining stability in China-Europe relations.
Conclusion
Europe faces a pivotal moment in 2025, caught between a less reliable US and an emboldened Russia-China axis. This new reality demands a pragmatic hedging strategy that combines enhanced defense capabilities with strategic diplomacy.
European autonomy must progress from rhetoric to reality through the implementation of coordinated military investments and unified foreign policy. It can no longer afford the luxury of assuming American security guarantees will remain intact. Simultaneously, Europe must maintain critical transatlantic bonds that endure past the Trump administration.
With China, Europe must pursue calculated coexistence—cooperating on global issues while systematically reducing critical dependencies. By balancing self-reliance with selective partnerships, Europe can safeguard its interests and maintain relevance in an increasingly fractured global order. The success of this approach will determine whether Europe emerges as a resilient, independent actor or becomes marginalized in the new geopolitical landscape.
