Turkey stands at a critical juncture in history, facing severe domestic and international challenges that threaten its stability and territorial integrity. While Ankara seeks to re-establish an Ottoman Empire based on the historical and religious framework of the Sunni Caliphate in its southern borders and a linguistic-Turkic corridor extending from its eastern borders across Central Asia to China’s Xinjiang, the combination of internal dynamics and external geopolitical realities renders such dreams nothing more than fantasies driven by Turkic-ideological aspirations. Among the most significant destabilizing factors for Turkey is its political Kurdish population and the long-standing crisis with them, coinciding with changes in the policies of global powers, particularly the United States, toward creating a Kurdish state composed of Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. This dual internal-external pressure could culminate in the disintegration of Turkey’s territorial unity.
The Kurdish Issue: An Unresolved Legacy
The Kurdish issue remains an unresolved and persistent problem for Turkey. Kurds, constituting approximately 20% of the country’s population, have historically been marginalized systematically, subjected to cultural suppression, and excluded from political participation. Although Erdogan initially promised democratic reforms and greater openness toward the Kurdish population, Ankara’s approach has largely consisted of military suppression, mass detentions, and the criminalization of Kurdish identity and politics.
The failure to integrate Kurdish citizens into Turkey’s political system has led to deep feelings of alienation. Kurdish-majority regions remain the least developed, disproportionately affected by violence, and among the poorest areas in Turkey. Erdogan’s policies, including the crackdown on the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and military operations against Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq under the guise of combating terrorism, have only widened these divides. This alienation poses significant risks for Turkey’s territorial integrity, especially as regional and international developments have bolstered Kurdish demands for autonomy and, ultimately, independence. The election of Donald Trump in the United States signaled geopolitical shifts that directly exposed Turkey to potential fragmentation.
The U.S. and the Kurdish State Project
Evolving U.S. policies in the Middle East have added another layer of complexity to Turkey’s predicament. Washington’s support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition, has become a critical element in Kurdish state-building efforts following the fall of ISIS. What was initially justified as a necessary tactical partnership has now evolved into a potentially strategic alliance, particularly as the U.S. shields Kurdish allies from Syrian government encroachments. This has emboldened Kurds across the region—including those in Turkey and Iraq—to push for the creation of a semi-autonomous Kurdish zone in northeastern Syria.
The prospect of a unified Kurdish state, comprising parts of Syria, Iraq, and Turkey, as a non-Arab, secular ally of the U.S. in the Middle East, holds considerable strategic value. For the Trump administration, this vision appeared to be of significant importance, presenting direct challenges to Turkey’s territorial cohesion.
Neo-Ottoman Ambitions and Domestic Realities
Turkey’s current leadership under Erdogan has pursued an aggressive foreign policy aimed at reviving Ottoman-era influence in the Middle East and beyond. This “Neo-Ottoman” vision is evident in Turkey’s military interventions in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus, as well as its assertive stance in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, these ambitions are increasingly at odds with the country’s internal vulnerabilities.
The focus on external expansion has come at the cost of addressing domestic issues such as economic instability, increasing authoritarianism, and social polarization. The Kurdish issue, in particular, remains a stark contradiction to Turkey’s Neo-Ottoman aspirations. A state that systematically marginalizes a significant portion of its population cannot credibly project unity or stability on the international stage.
Economic challenges have further weakened Turkey’s fragile foundations. The country is grappling with high inflation, currency devaluation, and growing public debt, which have eroded public trust in the government. Unemployment and poverty are particularly acute in Kurdish-majority regions, exacerbating existing grievances. Erdogan’s divisive rhetoric and policies have further weakened Turkey’s social fabric, fostering an atmosphere of fear and mistrust. This polarization extends beyond ethnic divisions to encompass ideological, religious, generational, and racial divides, undermining the very concept of national unity.
Scenarios for Collapse
The convergence of these factors—the unresolved Kurdish issue, external pressures from U.S. policies, economic instability, and social polarization—creates a volatile environment that could lead to Turkey’s fragmentation. Possible scenarios include:
- Internal Uprising: Escalating tensions in Kurdish-majority regions could trigger widespread unrest, challenging the government’s ability to maintain control. The suppression of Kurdish political movements, coupled with economic hardships, could ignite a broader resistance movement.
- Regional Spillover: Turkey’s military campaigns in Syria and Iraq could backfire, entangling the country in prolonged conflicts with Kurdish groups and their allies. This would strain Turkey’s military and economic resources, exacerbating internal instability.
- International Isolation: Ankara’s aggressive foreign policy and deteriorating relations with NATO allies could lead to diplomatic and economic isolation. Sanctions or punitive measures from Western powers would further weaken Turkey’s economy and its capacity to address domestic challenges.
- Kurdish Independence: A successful Kurdish state project, supported by the U.S. and other international actors, could inspire similar movements within Turkey, directly challenging its territorial integrity.
Turkey’s pursuit of a linguistic-ethnic corridor extending eastward to Xinjiang and its Neo-Ottoman ambitions along its southern borders have obscured its view of internal realities. By disregarding Kurdish identity and rights, Ankara has brought itself to the brink of fragmentation. The case of Turkey illustrates how, without meaningful reforms, a country harboring imperial fantasies and systemic injustices, can implode even as it seeks external expansion.
