Sub-Saharan Africa and the Sahel, as well as the Horn of Africa, are currently experiencing rapid and significant changes that pose challenges at regional, African, and Arab levels. The precursor to this transformation is the current situation in Sudan, which is the result of internal political rivalry that has persisted since its independence in 1956. The country’s geostrategic advantages give it regional and international importance. These advantages, coupled with natural resources, particularly oil and critical minerals, are attracting the interest and covetousness of other states and regional players. Strategic access to the Red Sea gives Sudan a major geostrategic asset, but it can also arouse both the covetousness of international actors and the curses of geopolitical rivalries. Thus, the war-like situation in which the country is mired could become volatile and present a high risk of widespread conflict and lasting instability.
Geopolitically, Sudan is a Nilotic state and is at the meeting point of the Blue Nile and the White Nile. It has a predominantly Arab and Muslim population in the north, a predominantly black African and Arab population in Darfur, and a predominantly Christian and animist population in the south. This ethnic mix has always been a source of contention, making Sudan a geopolitical disaster. Furthermore, the recent history of Sudan has been marked by war since its independence in 1956. The country has not succeeded in making the transition to democracy that its people had hoped for. The crisis in Darfur, West Kordofan, and South Kordofan, combined with the economic and institutional breakdown characterized by structural segregation and political instability, is becoming an explosive cocktail, turning Sudan into a powder keg that is ready to explode.
The divisions along religious and ethnic lines in Sudan compound the already unique geopolitical challenges it faces, further amplifying the threats posed by its perilous surroundings. The current crisis could lead to irreversible conflict dynamics, similar to what has happened in Afghanistan. Sudan’s weakness as a state and its total absence in some remote areas make it a potential candidate for a failed state that could pose a threat to continental and global peace and security. The ongoing conflict between warring factions could lead to a significant jihadist breakthrough in Sudan.
The volatile situation in Sudan exhibits all the hallmarks of a potentially catastrophic civil war, with devastating consequences for the country and the region. As of October 2024, the war has displaced an estimated 10.9 million people internally, including approximately 8.1 million forced to flee their homes since April 2023. Furthermore, around 2.2 million individuals have sought refuge in neighboring countries, exacerbating regional instability. This ongoing conflict has triggered an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) has described it as the “worst humanitarian crisis ever recorded,” with over half of Sudan’s population- approximately 25 million people – desperately in need of humanitarian assistance. The crisis also poses significant risks of regional spillover, particularly affecting vulnerable neighboring states like Chad. Historically, the Darfur region has served as a refuge for opposition forces opposing the Chadian government, as exemplified by the 2003 crisis between the two nations. These historical tensions, although often dormant, can easily be reignited, underscoring the fragile security dynamics of the region.
The hypotheses of potential threats are based on the ethnic rivalries and connections that exist in the triangle of Sudan, Chad, and Libya, as well as in western Niger, involving the Toubous, Dazagada, Beri, Zaghawa, and Bideyat. The discovery of gold in the Sahel and Sahara regions from Sudan to Mauritania, passing through northern Darfur and Toubous territories in Chad, Libya, and Niger, has resulted in a rush for artisanal gold exploitation. This has caused increased friction and fighting between ethnic groups and tribes, leading to the deterioration of the situation and a return to warlords in the region. Sudan became the second-largest gold producer in Africa in 2007, with an annual production of 70 tons, ahead of Mali and Burkina Faso. Inter-communal conflicts will intensify with the discoveries and failed initiatives of the Sudanese government in Tibesti, South or West Kordofan, Darfur, and southern Libya. The situation will further deteriorate with illicit trafficking and smuggling in cross-border circuits between Sudan and Libya, leading to a tenfold increase in conflicts, especially in Darfur. While Sudan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia remain dominant in the northern and eastern states, warring parties control the Kordofan and Blue Nile routes in the border area between Sudan and southern Sudan, including the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), which has an armed wing, the Sudan Liberation Army.
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It must be said that Mohamed Hamdane Dogolo has created a massive paramilitary-industrial complex by forming a pact with the leader of the SPLM, Abdel Wahid al-Nour. According to Global Witness, this complex allows him to control both a powerful military force and a significant portion of gold and oil mines. Dogolo, also known as Himayti, a term given to him by Omar Bashir and meaning “my protector,” has established a robust network of fighters from Arab tribes in Darfur, including the Maaliya, Rezeigat, and Massirya, with the help of the Janjawid. With the approval of former President Omar Bashir, these militias and paramilitary forces played a crucial role in the government’s fear of encircling the oil-rich southwestern region of Abyei.
Various tribes in the region actively contribute to dynamic geopolitics, and among them, the Zaghawa of Darfur played a significant role in the ascent of the Déby family in Chad in 1990. Many members of this tribe currently hold strategic positions in the Chadian army. This unique characteristic, combined with the ethnopolitical features of the Central African Republic, should be handled with care and not provoke any unnecessary tensions.
Given the tribal affiliations and vested interests with the Rapid Support Forces or the regular army led by Al Burhan, it is highly likely that certain ethnic groups in Chad, Niger, and Central Africa will actively respond to these events rather than remaining passive. Their involvement in the conflict is merely a question of time. Additionally, this war provides an opportune moment for several regional rebel movements and terrorist groups to settle old scores and establish their dominance, even at the national level.
The view that the ongoing conflict in Sudan is a mere power struggle is oversimplified and fails to capture its true nature. The roots of the Darfur crisis can be traced back to a long-standing context of social and territorial injustices, leading to frequent secessionist movements and rebellions. The military, as a state institution, has also been a victim of ideological and political disputes. Therefore, the current conflict is not an isolated event but rather a continuation of these underlying issues.
The situation in Sudan is complex and challenging, and it has shattered hopes for democracy and reconciliation in the country.
Amidst the current state of chaos, it is crucial for the international community to not abandon Sudan. The ongoing conflict between former allies in Sudan is likely to persist for many months, and if the international community delays serious intervention, it may result in a prolonged crisis without a viable resolution. Although Sudan’s geopolitical and geostrategic significance may not be comparable to Ukraine’s, it has always had a substantial impact on its neighbors during both wartime and peacetime. Destabilization in Sudan could lead to further chaos in the Sahel region and embolden terrorist groups in the Sahel-Saharan belt. This could result in catastrophic consequences for both humanitarian and security efforts, given the fragile economic and social state of the local population. The scenario could resemble that of Afghanistan, with the emergence of terrorist groups, organized crime, human trafficking, and potentially millions of displaced individuals. The collapse of Sudan would be catastrophic for the entire region, and as such, the international community should prioritize intervention to prevent such a disastrous outcome.
The potential consequences of neglecting African and Arab issues could have significant implications for the future of the global alliance system. In the midst of a region experiencing unprecedented transformation, Sudan has the potential to be a crucial turning point in the balance of power and strategic alliances. Its geopolitical impact extends beyond its borders, potentially affecting a range of countries in Africa and along the Red Sea. Sudan shares borders with several countries, including Chad, the Central African Republic, Kenya, Egypt, South Sudan, and Eritrea, making it a major player in maintaining security and stability throughout the African continent.
The involvement of external actors in the conflict is undoubtedly a disruptive factor that could prolong the conflict and turn it into a situation similar to Libya. The geopolitical levers of Sudan also have an impact on other conflicts in the region, such as the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the tensions in the Central African Republic, the Libyan equation, and Yemen.
To avoid reaching a point of no return, the international community must implement a strategy with a collective effort. The situation is manageable for now as long as the parameters of the equation are visible and open to debate. However, the scenario could be catastrophic if the situation escalates into a civil war. The Secretary General of the United Nations has called for action to prevent Sudan from falling into chaos, recognizing the multidimensional danger of this war. The decimation of all chances of democracy and stability in Sudan and the surrounding area is a real possibility, as seen in the recent evacuation of nationals and diplomats from Afghanistan. Therefore, a sustainable solution to the crisis requires a comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of the conflict and involves all relevant stakeholders.
By any yardstick, Sudan’s strategic importance to the United States is due to several factors. Its location as a gateway for commerce and transportation between northern and southern Africa is critical. However, the country’s long history of conflict and instability has made it a breeding ground for extremist groups (Al-Qaeda, etc.), which poses a potential threat to American interests. Sudan’s natural resources, including oil, minerals, and fertile land, make it an essential economic partner for the United States. Additionally, Sudan has played a crucial role in peace negotiations between Israel and several Arab countries, which is of significant interest to the US in maintaining stability in the Middle East. For Washington, this crisis would be an opportunity to achieve a strategic balance between South Asia and the Middle East. It is important to note that in this region, which borders both the Arab world and the African continent, significant historical events have had a profound impact on alliances and the global order.
