In 2025, India will chair two significant regional forums—the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA)—and will host the Quad Leaders’ Summit for the first time. It would enable India to direct the further development of maritime rules and governance, in accordance with its overarching objective of promoting a free and secure Indo-Pacific. Free and Secure Indo-Pacific is particularly crucial as India’s energy security increasingly depends on secure and stable maritime routes for the transport of essential energy resources.
Since the 1990s, particularly following liberalisation, India’s economy has led to a significant increase in energy consumption, intensifying the country’s demand for energy imports. The International Energy Agency’s “India Energy Outlook 2021” forecasts that India’s oil demand will double, and its natural gas demand will triple by 2040. India aims for a $5 trillion GDP by 2025 and $10 trillion by 2030, with energy security seen as the foremost challenge for its continued expansion. India’s energy imports are predominantly conveyed through susceptible sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and chokepoints. Approximately 85 percent of India’s crude oil, and 55 percent of its natural gas are imported via these vital maritime routes. However, the rise of an assertive China, terrorist organisations and Piracy issues around these SLOCs and Chokepoints have raised the risk of energy supply disruption.
Growing Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean region
A primary issue for India’s energy security is China’s growing maritime presence in the Indian Ocean region. It is viewed to serve the twin objectives of China- Geoeconomic (energy security) and Geostrategic (containing India). China’s expanding relationships with India’s regional neighbours, especially via its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), have generated concerns for India. Numerous states, such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, are significantly indebted to China, which has utilised this leverage to develop important ports around the area. Chinese-controlled ports, including Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, and Chittagong in Bangladesh, are strategically positioned near vital Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs). India perceives these moves as components of China’s overarching aim to enhance its regional influence and constrain India. Furthermore, the presence of Chinese warships and submarines at these ports, especially in Hambantota, has intensified apprehensions regarding the potential militarisation of these locations and its ramifications for India’s maritime security.
Rise of Terror groups along sea Lines of Communications
India’s oil supply lines encounter considerable threats from terrorism, especially from terrorist groups active near critical chokepoints like the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the Mozambique Channel. The Mozambique Channel is an essential corridor for the transit of energy resources from Africa and the Americas to India. Also, India has made about USD 10 billion investment in the Rovuma basin of Mozambique for exploration and production of liquified natural gas. However, the growing presence of insurgent factions and terrorist groups like ISIS Mozambique around the Rovuma basin has threatened both India’s energy transportation as well as exploration. Likewise, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a critical Chokepoint for energy transportation, has experienced increasing assaults by terrorist factions, especially the Houthis in Yemen. These disruptions have compelled ships to alter their routes, resulting in considerable delays in transportation, hence escalating freight prices and insurance rates.
The Menace of Piracy
Piracy, especially along the Somali coast, is a considerable danger to India’s energy security. The Gulf of Aden, a vital maritime route for international commerce, has been infamous for piracy since the early 2000s. Somali pirates have seized vessels, taken sailors captive, and extorted ransoms, resulting in significant financial and logistical disturbances. Despite the collaborative endeavors of the Indian Navy and various international maritime forces, pirate incidences have diminished but remain unabated. The current return of piracy, exemplified by the seizure of cargo Ship MV Abdullah in 2023, emphasises the persistent threat faced by this issue. The redirection of naval forces from the United States, United Kingdom, and France to the Red Sea, in response to the Houthi threat, has resulted in diminished patrols in the Western Indian Ocean, hence exacerbating the rise in piracy.
Strategic Measures
India’s dependence on energy imports and the security challenges posed by China’s maritime strategy and terrorism have prompted the government to undertake several initiatives to secure its energy supply routes. One of the key initiatives is the development of the Chabahar port in Iran, which provides India with an alternative route for the transportation of energy supplies from Central Asia and the Middle East. It also provides India with strategic footprints near one of the crucial Chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz. In Oman, India has access to Duqm port for military use and logistical support which will further solidify India’s foothold in the Western Indian Ocean. The development of Sittwe port and Sabang port in Indonesia will strengthen India’s presence in Southeast Asia and another important Chokepoint, Malaca Strait. On the Agalega Island of Mauritius, India is developing port facilities and military infrastructure which will help it strengthen the monitoring capabilities in the Southern Indian Ocean region. This development of infrastructure will enable India to secure its energy transport lines and mitigate China’s increasing influence in these regions.
India is a rising power and a net security provider in the region. Its aspiration to bolster its role as a security provider in the region in the face of rising Chinese presence is trying to create a regional architecture based on the principles of shared prosperity and shared security. It is actively engaged in multiple multilateral initiatives to strengthen security, economic ties and regional cooperation. However, these multilateral institutions haven’t achieved the desired results due to insufficient institutional capacity, lack of a unified vision and divergent economic interests among other reasons. To make these initiatives more effective India needs to address these challenges as a priority.
Way Forward
India must implement a holistic strategy to enhance its maritime security architecture. India’s leadership must transition from a conventional territorial perspective to one that acknowledges the vital significance of protecting SLOCs and chokepoints crucial to its economic prosperity. Enhancing India’s naval strength is essential. To maintain competitiveness with other regional naval powers, especially China, India must substantially augment its defence budget and invest in modernising its fleet with advanced technologies. The nation’s naval growth, along with the formulation of a comprehensive maritime strategy, would ensure that India maintains a preeminent position in safeguarding its energy supply lines.
India’s strategic alignment with significant nations like the United States, Japan, and Australia offers a vital edge in mitigating China’s influence in the area. In contrast to China, which depends on smaller, less influential allies like Pakistan and Sri Lanka, India’s partnerships with significant democratic states bolster its status as a regional leader in maritime security. By leveraging multilateral frameworks such as the Quad, India can enhance its naval capabilities, safeguard international maritime routes, and serve as a counterweight to China’s assertive expansion in the Indo-Pacific region.
India’s sustained goodwill with its maritime neighbours, bolstered by historical connections and effective diplomacy, constitutes another foundation of its maritime policy. India’s position as a primary responder in crises, notably during natural catastrophes such as the 2004 tsunami and following aid during cyclones, terrorist incidents, and the COVID-19 epidemic, has garnered considerable influence and confidence throughout the region. To reinforce its standing, India must persist in its humanitarian aid and soft power initiatives to sustain and enhance its role as a regional leader.
