In the complex geopolitical landscape of South Asia, Afghanistan remains inextricably linked to Pakistan, particularly following the rise of the Taliban to power in Kabul. Pro-Taliban elements, especially on social platforms like X, often fail to recognize the extent of their dependency on Pakistan, particularly in economic, diplomatic, military, and humanitarian terms. While their tribal jingoism might sound defiant, it becomes clear that the Taliban’s hold on Afghanistan could be precariously fragile if Pakistan chose to apply strategic pressure. This relationship reveals the deep vulnerabilities of Afghanistan, which, despite its nominal sovereignty, remains highly reliant on its eastern neighbor.
Afghanistan’s economic survival hinges significantly on Pakistan, a factor often overlooked by the Taliban and their supporters. A large proportion of the goods entering Afghanistan—from food and medical supplies to fuel—must pass through Pakistan’s borders. This dependency on Pakistani supply routes makes Afghanistan vulnerable to disruptions, which Pakistan can enforce with minimal effort, especially during times of political tension or conflict. In essence, the Afghan economy could be crippled by even a temporary closure of these vital trade routes.
Pakistan also plays a critical role in the provision of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. Much of the international assistance, whether it be food aid, medical supplies, or foreign donations, is routed through Pakistan, making Afghanistan highly vulnerable to any shifts in Pakistan’s stance. In the event of sanctions or trade blockages, Afghanistan faces not just an economic collapse, but a full-blown humanitarian crisis, as the country is unable to secure the necessary resources independently. This makes Afghanistan’s strategic dependence on Pakistan not just an inconvenience but a fundamental issue that could push the nation into dire conditions should Islamabad decide to withdraw or alter its cooperation.
On the diplomatic front, Afghanistan under the Taliban regime finds itself in an increasingly isolated position. The international community, particularly Western countries, has largely refused to recognize the Taliban’s government due to concerns over its human rights record, particularly the oppression of women and minorities, as well as its regressive policies disguised as religious edicts. Afghanistan’s isolation is compounded by the reluctance of most countries to engage with the Taliban directly.
Here, Pakistan plays an ambiguous yet crucial role. Despite widespread international condemnation, Pakistan continues to engage with the Taliban diplomatically, providing them with an avenue for limited recognition. This engagement allows the Taliban a semblance of international legitimacy that they would otherwise lack. By maintaining its relationship with the Taliban, Pakistan has positioned itself as Afghanistan’s primary diplomatic interlocutor, offering the regime a fragile foothold in the global community. Without this relationship, the Taliban would find themselves completely marginalized, leaving Afghanistan even more vulnerable to external pressures.
While Pakistan has refrained from direct military intervention in Afghanistan since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, it retains significant military leverage. The Pakistani military is one of the most capable in the region, with extensive training, resources, and operational capacity. Should Islamabad deem it necessary, Pakistan could target Taliban factions or insurgent groups operating inside Afghanistan, particularly those that threaten its national security, such as groups linked to anti-Pakistan terrorism.
In addition, Pakistan’s military maintains a strategic advantage through its proximity to the Afghan border, as well as its intelligence capabilities. Should a situation arise where Taliban factions become too destabilizing for Pakistan’s interests, Islamabad could launch targeted strikes against these elements. While this option has not been exercised, the mere existence of this potential influence serves as a strategic deterrent to the Taliban and other groups operating within Afghanistan’s borders.
One of the most sensitive issues in the Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship is the refugee question. For decades, Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees who fled their country due to war, poverty, and instability. Despite the immense financial, social, and political strains that hosting such a large refugee population has placed on Pakistan, the country has not taken drastic steps to repatriate these refugees, as some other nations have done.
This policy serves a dual purpose. First, it provides Afghanistan with a buffer against immediate humanitarian disaster. If Pakistan were to force a mass repatriation of refugees, Afghanistan would likely face a new wave of instability, exacerbating its already fragile internal conditions. The refugee issue thus becomes an unspoken lever that Pakistan holds over Afghanistan. By maintaining its relatively open border policy, Islamabad provides a degree of stability to Afghanistan, even as the Taliban struggles to consolidate power.
Intelligence Operations: A Covert Influence
Pakistan also exerts a subtle yet powerful influence over Afghanistan through its intelligence operations. The Pakistani military and intelligence agencies maintain extensive networks within Afghanistan and the Afghan diaspora, which they can leverage to support resistance movements opposed to the Taliban. Groups such as the National Resistance Front (NRF), which challenge the Taliban’s authority in various parts of the country, often look to Pakistan for support in their efforts.
Though Pakistan officially supports the idea of talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government to resolve outstanding issues amicably, it also provides covert assistance to these resistance factions. This creates a delicate balancing act for Pakistan, as it aims to maintain its regional stability while supporting anti-Taliban elements that share its concerns over security and governance. Pakistan’s intelligence infrastructure within Afghanistan enables it to discreetly influence the political landscape, ensuring that its interests are safeguarded regardless of the Taliban’s policies.
The Taliban’s control over Afghanistan may seem solid from the perspective of its supporters, but the realities of the country’s geopolitical and economic dependencies suggest a much more precarious situation. Pakistan’s strategic leverage—through economic influence, diplomatic engagement, military potential, refugee policies, and intelligence networks—gives Islamabad significant control over Afghanistan’s fate. While Pakistan has largely refrained from using this leverage aggressively, the Taliban’s reliance on Pakistan is undeniable. Any significant shift in Pakistan’s policies could tip the balance, leaving Afghanistan vulnerable to both internal collapse and external pressures. For all the bravado of its supporters, the Taliban’s rule is intricately tied to the whims of Pakistan’s strategic decisions, and the pinpoints of Afghanistan underscore its enduring dependence on its eastern neighbor.
