The Syrian civil war, which began 13 years ago during the Arab Spring, escalated into a devastating conflict involving local factions, extremists groups and international players. The war has claimed the lives of over 500,000 Syrians and displaced millions from their homes. In a surprising turn of events, the Syrian rebels’ coalition led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has achieved a significant breakthrough in after an eight-year break in Syrian civil war. Rebels advancing from city of Idlib located in North-Western Syria have successfully captured cities of Aleppo (November 30), Hama (December 05), and Daraa (December 07), and are currently fighting for strategic city of Homs. As Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian Arab Army (SAA) continues to retreat, it was feared that the rebels will be fighting a bloody battle with SAA for control over Syrian capital Damascus. However, due to another co-ordinated uprising in Derra Region located in Southern Syria the fall of Damascus has taken place far quicker than previously predicted. The rebels have now entered the capital Damascus and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has reportedly left the country. With Assad regime toppled, Syrian Prime Minister has called for free elections. This rapid advance has surprised observers, as not even during the peak of the civil war had rebels achieved such progress.
Despite two-dace long intense civil war, Bashar al-Assad successfully retained its power as president of Syria. One of primary reason was continuous support by his allies including Russia and Iran. But in past few years, regional power dynamics have changed dramatically. When recent uprising took place, Assad was left alone as none of his allay was in position to reliably support him. Russia has suffered significant losses in Russia-Ukraine war and Iran has also lost its key assets against Israel in, both at homeland and in Lebanon.
To truly understand the dynamics of conflict in Syria, it is vital to consider diverse perspectives. The Syrian conflict has long been a stage for international actors pursuing their own agendas. Russia, Iran, Turkey, Israel, and the United States each play pivotal roles, shaping the battlefield and its broader implications.
Although Russia attempted to undermine the momentum of rebels’ offense by conducting targeted strikes against rebel position. However, due to limited availability of military resources amid war in Ukraine, Russian forces no longer possessed the capability to assist SAA for repelling offense of that magnitude. The fall of Assad regime marks a major blow to Moscow’s status as great power. By keeping Assad in power, Putin had consolidated Russia’s image as reliable power. Beside reputation, Russia has been using Syrian mainland for power projection in Mediterranean and Middle East. Two major Russian military bases – an air-base in Hmeimim and a naval base in Tartus, have been pivotal in this regard. Hmeimim air-base is crucial for supporting regional military operations and also serves as logistical hub for Africa borne aerial missions. Tartus naval base, with missile frigates, conventional submarines, and replenishment vessels, is important for sustaining Russia’s naval presence in Mediterranean Sea. With rebels moving towards center, these bases, located in North-West Syria along the coast, has been cut-off from rest of country and is now facing threat from rebels. So far, silence has been observed from Russian officials as far as its military bases as well as future of Assad are concerned.
Iran has been central to the Syrian conflict for over a decade, not only supporting Assad but also using Syria to establish a land corridor to its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah. This “land bridge” is essential for transporting supplies and personnel, augmenting Iran’s regional influence. However, Israeli airstrikes have significantly weakened Iran’s logistical networks which used to power Tehran orchestrated “Axis of Resistance.” On the onset of new rebel offense, Iran attempted to fulfill its commitment by dispatching thousands of Iraqi fighters to aid bolstering of Assad’s regime. However, these Iranian-backed formations have been suffering heavy losses against targeted bombings by the United States, which aims to weaken Iran’s influence in Syria while safeguarding Israel’s strategic interests. As a result, Tehran’s support also fell short of sustaining Assad regime. With Assad gone, the crucial connectivity with Leonean no longer exists which will significantly weaken Iran’s Axis of Resistance.
Turkey, which shares long border with Syria, has borne the brunt of the refugee crisis, with more than two millions of Syrian refugees seeking shelter within its borders. This has led to significant political and social tensions within Turkey. Ankara’s initial optimism in normalizing relations with Assad suffered set back when Assad refused to accept returning refugees and demanded the withdrawal of Turkish forces from northern Syria. Beside refugees, Ankara is also concerned about the rise Syrian-Kurdish militia called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria which currently enjoys military collaboration with United States. Thus, Turkey faces complex challenges. A regime collapse could trigger chaos and new refugee waves, adding to domestic political pressures from past migrations. Alternatively, a protracted stalemate may ensue, with regime forces backed by Iranian militias and Hezbollah unable to reclaim lost cities. Additionally, Ankara’s campaign against Syrian Kurds remains a priority, driven by fears of Kurdish autonomy akin to Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government. The U.S. still maintains approximately 900 troops in northern Syria, which have augmented SDF and continues to cause deep concerns in Ankara.
Israel, meanwhile, finds itself struggling for a precarious balance. While it views Iran as its primary adversary and wants to diminish Tehran’s led ‘axis of resistance’, the prospect of Sunni militia filling the Assad’s power vacuum also poses an equally significant challenge. Instead of a unified and powerful foe in Syria, for Tel Aviv, a fragmented Syria with different factions fighting for power would be a far less threatening undertaking.
The rebel factions, comprising of more than 50 groups, themselves are far from unified. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of Al-Qaeda (ALQ), has emerged as a dominant force. Despite its designation as a terrorist organization by the international community, HTS operates with considerable autonomy, often clashing with other rebel groups like the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). The SNA, which started as part of the original opposition, now functions as a proxy force for Turkey, aligning its objectives with Ankara’s strategic interests. These militant groups are united against a common cause, i.e., removal of Assad regime. With Assad gone, it’s feared that these factions will compete against each other for establishing control over Syria. This may push Syria towards a new phase of civil war.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s history and will reshape the regional balance of power. As capital falls under rebel control and the battle for Syria’s heartland intensifies, the coming months will be crucial in determining the country’s future. With ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Houthi’s crisis in Red Sea and brutal offense of Israel on Gaza and Lebanon, the entire region is currently engulfed in military crisis. There is growing need to understand the core reasons causing these crises which require a mutually-agreed and multi-perspective approach, balancing narratives and recognizing the underlying stakes for each actor involved.
