Recently, the space launch from Iran took great importance since it takes the country’s heaviest payload till date. Other than military payload, several satellites feature in space launches. Iran will thus be the country to grab all the limelight. Such technological improvements do hold great deal of political questions in them, more so in the backdrop of already volatile Middle East scenario. The technology deployed in the launch of this satellite into orbit shares some similarities with ballistic missiles systems which might carry nuclear warheads. Iran showed that it can put into orbit a 660-pound (300 kilograms) payload, which demonstrated achievements that many analysts say reveal its capability to manufacture one day ICBMs. For domestic and foreign competitors, the landmark symbolizes not only scientific knowledge but also turns out to be a signal of strategic goals.
Although Tehran claims that its space program is purely for civilian purposes, vast doubts remain over the claim in view of the dual-use potential of the program. The technological fruits of the Iranian program are causing unease among Western nations and regional players like Israel and Saudi Arabia; after all, Iran’s missile capabilities are still creating enormous controversy in the international arena. But what this does is further fuel the fire of mistrust: Iran’s missile program sanctions due to expire in October 2023 have already breathed a sigh of relief on Tehran to pursue its military agenda without fear of swift vengeance. Its neighbors are put in a dilemma: whether to apply diplomatic pressure or build up their military muscles? All the above seems little effort towards trying to find a way out, further feeding instability in places like Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza that are still fighting. Considering the mentioned military steps, Iran has been a long-term security factor against Israel; the last actions may cause preventive attacks at Iranian infrastructure where just some minor move will unleash an escalatory process involving a few players in this very sensitive geopolitical configuration.
It is the geopolitical timing that makes the launch by Iran important. The Middle East is still a tinderbox of unrest, and tensions are mounting between Iran and its detractors to reach a breaking point. The advances made by Iran’s aerospace put regional stability at risk for the United States and its allies and upends existing conventions of international relationships. The White House stated that all steps Tehran makes toward space development violate resolutions that the United Nations Security Council has issued, which pushes Iran further away from other superpowers in the world. However, things get worse with an impasse in the negotiations over its nuclear program. The recently appointed president, Masoud Pezeshkian who most people see as reform-minded, has demonstrated a disposition to return to negotiations with the West, but so far his government has not positioned itself on space for the use of the military. That ambiguity only devours the possibility of trust building and makes that mistake or provocation more conveniently sustainable.
Iran’s space ambitions will represent a possible growing instability in the Middle East. The mere possibility that Tehran will use its aerospace achievements for military purposes provokes counter-measures that instill further instability in the already tense atmosphere. Most probably, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries will upscale their efforts on missile development and Israel will step up its covert and overt moves at checking Iranian influence, that could generate a spiral which might destabilize the area to have far-reaching significance all over the world. And more importantly, its policy suggests much deeper consequence as regards its ultimate end regarding international relations.
Although publicly presented as civilian in purpose, Iran’s space research efforts represent the nation’s ambition to be a world power in midst of its current isolation. On paper, this project is appealing and does pose possible risks that call for scrutiny in a critical analysis. It is a multi-dimensional question that the international community faces: what policies to pursue to rein in the expansion of Iranian capabilities and also to mollify very tensions these policies try to ease? Obviously, there are diplomatic measures on the cards still, but those efforts need to go hand-in-glove with credible security measures designed to frustrate incipient acts of hostility. Regional actors should also consider the costs of further ratcheting up the tension against benefits of engaging strategic dialogue. Rapid technological developments in aerospace raise a question that is rather distressing: whether that technology will mean progress toward better and more integrated prosperity or mark the beginning of a possible war in the Middle East. It is much more dependent on what the international community might do instead of an intention of Tehran.
