The situation in Afghanistan remains quite complicated. Despite the significant stabilization of political processes under the unrecognized Taliban regime, the economic situation in the country cannot be called favorable. In addition, the problem with the activity of international and regional terrorist groups on Afghan territory and in the South Asian region looks quite dangerous. At the same time, the diplomatic activity of the Taliban is impressive. Quite intensive negotiations are underway around the Afghan case. High-ranking diplomats from Central Asian countries, China, India, Russia, Iran, and Arab countries are participating in them.
The situation with the drug business has always remained a complex and controversial problem. Afghanistan is called a Narco-state due to the virtually free opportunity for Afghan farmers to grow poppy, from which heroin is made. At the same time, the unrecognized Islamic Emigrant officially states that poppy production is prohibited and the Taliban are actively fighting violators. Having come to power, the Taliban declared drug production illegal and promised to fight it. However, the day before, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime stated that opium production in Afghanistan increased by 30% in 2024, and its value by 130% compared to the previous year. The organization reported that 433 tons of opium were produced in Afghanistan this year. This institution estimated this volume of opium at about $ 260 million, which shows an increase of 130% compared to the previous year. The Taliban Interior Ministry rejected the claim. The Taliban considers the figures given in the document “far from reality.” However, the Taliban did not provide any facts that would indicate the veracity of their statements.
Political processes are also quite active. In general, the Taliban managed to gain significant informal recognition from non-Western illiberal countries of Eurasia. Thus, the countries of the pro-Russian military-political organization CSTO at the end of November at the summit in Astana called for preserving the territories of Afghanistan free from the deployment of military facilities of third countries and called on countries to help the Afghans. In turn, Russia intends to develop relations with the current authorities of Afghanistan, where the situation is stabilizing. “There are complex processes taking place in Afghanistan. We hope that we will be able to build relations with Afghanistan. We cannot help but pay attention to the fact that the situation there is stabilizing, we have relations with the current leadership of Afghanistan and they will develop,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon expressed gratitude for the support of the decision to approve the CSTO program to strengthen the Tajik-Afghan border. In his speech at the meeting of the CSTO Council, he drew attention to the need to strengthen the borders of his country in the south. It is worth noting that Tajikistan has a complicated relationship with the Taliban. The victory of the Taliban was perceived with hostility in Dushanbe, and anti-Taliban forces found refuge in this country. In addition, according to many observers in Tajikistan, the Taliban-Pashtuns are pursuing a nationalist policy aimed at infringing on the rights of Tajiks.
China is also pursuing a fairly active policy in the Afghan direction, strengthening its economic and political influence. Thus, China’s special representative for Afghanistan said that Beijing does not seek to create a zone of influence in Afghanistan. “Afghanistan should become a platform for cooperation between all parties, not a geopolitical arena of competition,” the diplomat said. Over the past three years, American politicians have repeatedly expressed concern about China’s growing influence in Afghanistan. At the same time, US President-elect Donald Trump said that the Bagram military base is under Chinese control.
Paradoxically, Pakistan has the most difficult relationship with the Taliban. Some observers believe that public diplomatic scandals, armed clashes on the border between Afghans and Pakistanis, and tough statements against each other are elements that should not be overestimated. The importance of the Pakistani military to the Taliban is so great that it will be extremely difficult for them to successfully operate without the support of Islamabad. By the way, many family members of Taliban leaders still live in Pakistani cities, and many influential Taliban have business interests in Quetta and Peshawar. However, some conflict still takes place. Pakistani intelligence, ISI, seeks to maintain control over the Taliban. The Afghan movement, in turn, is trying to get rid of this dependence.
Thus, official Pakistan claims that after the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, instability in this country, especially in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, has increased. Some officials of this country believe that militants opposing the government of the country have shelters in Afghanistan and are supported by the Afghan Taliban. Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, a spokesman for the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, said that the Afghan Taliban do not take Islamabad’s repeated calls to take action against “terrorist groups” seriously. According to her, the Taliban “must act against terrorist groups.” However, the Taliban have always rejected these claims and stated that ensuring security inside Pakistan is an internal matter for that country. At the same time, Islamabad said that it had shared with China’s special representative for Afghanistan “convincing evidence” of the presence of Pakistani Taliban and other groups’ safe havens in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
Some activity by radical Islamist organizations took place in the Indian state of Assam. This eastern and somewhat geographically isolated Indian territory has long experienced difficulties with radical Islamist activity. Various organizations supported by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), including those operating in Bangladesh, have waged a fairly radical fight against the Indian authorities. Most Islamist groups in Assam were founded between 1990 and 1996 with the main goal of protecting the “common interests” of minority Muslim communities in the region. By and large, these radical terrorist organizations were proxy groups supported by the Pakistani military. At various times, at least 20 Islamist terrorist groups operated in Assam. It is stated that global Islamist terrorist groups are now creating serious problems in the security sphere.
Thus, the political processes around Afghanistan and the Taliban continue to develop actively. The Taliban are generally managing to strengthen their position in the country. Their power has no alternative. At the same time, non-Western countries of Eurasia intend to expand cooperation with the unrecognized government of Afghanistan. The global West is generally tired of Afghan problems and does not show any serious interest in Afghan issues. At the same time, many rational powers have realized that the Taliban is a reality in Afghanistan. And they will have to be dealt with.
