In the last few years, there have been the acceleration of India’s naval and strategic modernization, reflecting its long-term ambitions and interests vested in the Indian Ocean region. The Indian Ocean holds the great significance for regional and global powers as it accounts for more than 80 percent of global sea-borne oil trade, with 40 percent from Strait of Hormuz, 35 percent from Strait of Malacca, and 8 percent from the Bab el-Mandab. To enhance its influence in Indian Ocean, India has recently decided to enhance its naval capabilities by developing new nuclear powered attack submarines, that actually reflects its ambitions of military modernization and changing the regional maritime security landscape in its favour.
The main objective behind these efforts for modernization in naval capabilities lies within the India’s desire of becoming the regional leader and net security provider, vis-a-vis countering the rising China. On the other hand, China holds the world’s largest and strongest navy with highest number of ship, submarines and advanced nuclear capabilities. Still, India’s naval expansion program can be a matter of concern, not only for China, but also for Pakistan. India’s strong footprints in the Indian ocean may bring several challenges for China, because the China’s grand strategy revolves around the success of Belt and Road Initiative. Whereas, the success of BRI is strongly linked with the China’s influence in the Indian Ocean. For Pakistan, on the other side, India’s strengthening military muscle is a serious threat for its survival and national security. In this context, it is imperative to understand that how will the Pakistan and China react to this new development. Whether they will take proactive steps or reactive ones? This is a new security equation, if not approached with calculated strategy, can lead to the instability in the region.
India’s Naval Modernization: A Strategic Imperative
The naval modernization plan of India is a part of its grand strategy, aiming to expand its area of influence over the Indian Ocean. India sees the China’s military and naval capabilities as a threat to its position in the Indian Ocean and also in the region. This security dilemma is driving the Indian naval expansion and modernization process. Importantly, it is considerable that this modernization will multiply the intensity of Security Dilemma in Pakistan, that can exacerbate the nuclear arms race.
Over the period of last few years, the Indian government is taking the solid steps to bolstering its military and naval might through new developments and modernization. Recently, the Indian government has gave approval to ‘Project-77’, which is about the construction of new nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), which reflects the Indian ambitions of turning the regional scenario in its favor. For this purpose, the government will spend an estimated cost of ₹40,000 crore ($5.4 billion), for the development of six new submarines, which will be strengthening the India’s capability to deter China in Indian Ocean. Additionally, India is also expanding its conventional submarine capabilities through the ‘Project-75’, that aims at developing advanced diesel-electric submarines with Air-independent Propulsion (AIP) technology, that will help them to stay submerged in waters for longer period. It is important to understand that this modernization is not just about increasing the number of ships but it involves the development of advanced and sophisticated underwater communication infrastructure. In this context, the development of new ‘Very Low Frequency (VLF) transmitting station’ in Vikarabad, Telangana, is considerable. This new development will enhance India’s capability to maintain constant and encrypted communication with its submarines, hence multiplying its operational readiness and bolstering its deterrence capabilities.
Moving towards Nuclear-powered Submarines
The limitations of the conventional submarines, such as their noisiness and limited underwater endurance, has pushed India towards the development of the nuclear-powered submarines. While, the nuclear-powered submarines have the capability to stay underwater for a relatively longer period, which lessens the risk of their detection. In addition, these submarines are capable not only of launching nuclear attacks, but also have the capability to carry out conventional attacks.
Currently, India operates only two nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) belonging to its ‘Arihant-class’ program. The first one is ‘INS Arihant’, which was commissioned in 2016, while the second one is, ‘INS Arighaat’ which was inducted in August 2023. These submarines strengthened the India’s deterrence capability, as they can carry nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. The submarines belonging to Arihant-class are equipped with ‘K-15 missiles’ and ‘K-4 missiles’, having the ranges extended to 750 kilometers and 3,500 kilometers, respectively. These capabilities gives India an ability to attack its adversary in the deep waters and to a greater distance with better precision. However, India is planning to go beyond its current SSBN capabilities, and plans to build larger ‘13,500-tonne SSBNs’ equipped with pressurized light-water reactors (PLWRs) and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), for further strengthening its military muscle.
India’s Naval Advancements: A New Security Equation for China and Pakistan?
India’s naval modernization, particularly its focus on developing nuclear-powered submarines, is reshaping the security landscape of Indian Ocean Region. It is more likely that China and Pakistan will perceive this modernization as a threat, compelling them to reevaluate their military capabilities and strategies.
For Pakistan, these development are matter of concern, because it always aimed at ensuring the deterrence capability against India. Even it developed its nuclear arsenal to mitigate the threat from Indian side. Moreover, it relies on the doctrine ‘Credible Minimum Deterrence’, while the India’s development of new nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) may tilt the balance of power in the favor of India, hence intensifying the security dilemma for Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan may invest more in bolstering its sea-based nuclear and conventional capabilities to deter India, because Pakistan’s Navy does not have any nuclear powered submarine. Even to deter the threat of Arihant, Pakistan developed Babur-3 (Submarine launched cruise missile and sea-based variant of ground missile Babur-2), capable of carrying nuclear warheads with the range of 450 km, just for securing the second strike capability This time, Pakistan might start developing its naval technology capable to deploying nuclear weapons such as nuclear powered attack submarines and more advanced diesel-electric submarines to counterbalance the new development in Indian Navy. Furthermore, Pakistan may revise its existing naval doctrine emphasizing Anti access/area denial (A2/AD) aimed at deterring the Indian naval operation. This may led to the strengthening the coastal defenses and acquiring advanced surface-to-air missile system. Most importantly, the military cooperation between Pakistan and China can also be considered by Pakistan, as it will enhance the naval influence by joint exercises, technology transfers, and improved intelligence sharing.
However, for China, this naval modernization poses serious threats to its key geopolitical interests in Indian Ocean, especially related to its trade routes and Belt and Road initiative (BRI). The Indian Ocean holds a great importance for China, because of the Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCs), Chinese energy imports and its strategic significance. More specifically, the flagship of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) also passes through the Indian Ocean, and this corridor also serves the function of connecting the two components of BRI, i.e., Silk Road and Maritime route. In addition, the CPEC aims at averting the Malacca Dilemma for China, as geopolitical tensions in South China Sea and Pacific can disturb Chinese energy imports and trade. The CPEC connects Chinese with Indian Ocean through Gwadar and Arabian Sea, hence providing it a safe and short route for energy imports and trade. Therefore, the assertive Indian Navy not only undermines the China’s influence by projecting its power in the Indian ocean region but also poses threats to the success of CPEC, which may compel China to enhance its naval influence in Indian ocean, especially through the deployment of advanced submarines and aircraft carriers. This escalation of the tensions between states may lead to increasing military posturing between them, hence leading to the risk of disastrous conflict.
Conclusion
The evolving security landscape in the Indian Ocean may lead to the serious implications. If Pakistan and China perceive the India’s policies as aggressive and may not find any potential solutions for this security equation, it may lead to the serious security crisis in the region. Even any miscalculation or misconception from any side can result in the preemptive strikes or escalatory responses, hence deteriorating the security and stability of whole region. Therefore, it is imperative to establish the hotlines and back channels for communications between India, Pakistan and China to avoid any drastic outcomes in future.
