The United States of America has stood as the champion of democracy since 1945. For decades, U.S. foreign policy has been guided by the Truman Doctrine, a foreign policy established by President Harry S. Truman in 1947 that pledged unwavering support for democratic nations facing threats from authoritarian forces. The Truman Doctrine became the cornerstone of America’s efforts to uphold democratic values globally.
After the disintegration of the USSR, the U.S. found itself in a better position to single out Rogue states, turning the tables on adversaries. Samuel Huntington’s “The Clash of Civilizations” has left its mark on U.S. foreign policy after the Cold War. The 9/11 attacks brought home Huntington’s thesis, showing that there is a clash between civilizations that continues to loom. Since the end of the Cold War, intra-state wars have been on the rise. According to Roland Paris, more than thirty wars have occurred, and they were all intra-state wars. This surge in conflicts highlights the pervasive instability within state.
Afghanistan has remained among the intra-state wars for decades, becoming a fertile hub for the import and export of terrorism. Therefore, since 2004, the U.S. has launched peace-building efforts to transform Afghanistan into a market-driven economy and a hub of peace. To make America great again, Trump labeled the U.S. war on terror as a blunder. During his first tenure as a Republican candidate, he aimed to pull the U.S. out of Afghanistan. Biden finally made the U.S. withdrawal possible, paving the way for China to step into the gap with economic tactics in Afghanistan.
Donald Trump’s re-election, with his second inauguration set for January 2025, is poised to usher in significant shifts in the United States’ foreign policy, carrying both direct and indirect implications for Afghanistan. This sets the stage for speculation about Trump and Taliban relations, which remain shrouded in uncertainty. The fluidity of events keeps everyone on their toes, as the future hangs in the balance.
Trump’s Likely Approach to Afghanistan: Pragmatic Re-engagement or Increased Disengagement?
During Trump’s first term, he struck a deal in Doha with the Taliban in 2020. It aimed to pull out U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Under this agreement, the Taliban were to counter all kinds of threats that sprang up from Afghanistan. Under Biden’s administration, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan came to pass. This set the stage for a new era, but also opened the door to various challenges.
During Trump’s second term, it doesn’t seem likely that he will re-invade Afghanistan. However, there’s a scenario where if the Taliban government in Afghanistan fails to stick to the Doha agreement, which is the so-called peace agreement between the Taliban and the U.S., Trump might turn up the heat. If the Taliban undermines this agreement to achieve their counter-terrorism objectives, Trump may ramp up economic pressure not to further isolate but to compel them to follow the Doha commitment. He could wield soft power to punish the Taliban through economic sanctions and further isolation.
Implications for Pakistan: Navigating a Delicate Balance
For Pakistan, Trump’s second term presents opportunities as well as numerous challenges. On one hand, it opens the door for Pakistan and the U.S. to work together against the counter-terrorism threats that emerge from Afghan soil. Both can share intelligence to make the region a hub of peace. This collaboration could pave the way for a more stable South Asia, turning the tide against terrorism and building bridges between nations.
On the other hand, if anything bad happens in Afghanistan, its repercussions will spill over into Pakistan. If Trump further isolates Afghanistan and imposes economic sanctions, there will be a mass migration toward Pakistan. The cash-strapped Pakistan is already at the mercy of the IMF. It cannot afford any kind of instability in Afghanistan. This situation could turn the tide and put Pakistan in a bind, making it hard to keep the peace.
Regional Stability and the Role of the Taliban
Since the Taliban’s return to power, TTP attacks have surged by 73 per cent since August 2021, posing a direct threat to Pakistan’s national security. This situation places Pakistan in a difficult position, as it struggles to manage the rising threat. The U.S. might increase pressure on the Taliban, demanding accountability and advocating for stricter measures.
Both political elites and the military establishment must come together to forge a strong and coherent strategy to engage with the Taliban and ensure that Afghan territory is not used against Pakistan. For the Taliban, the peace and prosperity of Afghanistan should be their prime responsibility. To achieve lasting peace, the Taliban, Pakistan, and the U.S. could set up a tripartite framework to delve deeply into the situation, before the region spirals out of control.
By joining forces, all parties involved can gain a clearer understanding of the complexities and work towards a sustainable solution. It’s imperative to keep a close eye on the developments and act swiftly to prevent further instability. Only through collaboration and strategic planning can peace and stability be maintained in the region.
Economic Diplomacy: Leveraging Afghanistan for Regional Connectivity
Afghanistan, a geopolitically important state in South Asia, has much to offer. Often referred to as the “Heart of Asia,” this country holds significant strategic value for the region. It can serve as a bridge between Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East. Despite being landlocked, its central location offers tremendous potential.
The nation is trapped in the long chain of economic instability. Economic isolation on the global stage has compounded the hardships on the ground. However, Afghanistan can leverage its geo-strategic location to boost regional connectivity; the higher the trade in Afghanistan, the better the Taliban will fall in line with expectations. However, the Biden administration has vowed to disburse the $7 billion belonging to Afghanistan to the victims of 9/11, which can worsen further the anguish of the Afghan people.
Trump must employ economic diplomacy and do his utmost to hold the Taliban to their promises. It could potentially turn the tide in Afghanistan. By releasing the $7 billion of their assets and further funding the Taliban to crack down on the TTP, IS-KP, and Al-Qaeda, it can be in the best interest of both the U.S. and the Taliban. Therefore, if the U.S. and Trump administration do not turn their back on the region, it could prevent it from becoming a hub of terrorism again.
Mitigating the Indo-U.S. Factor: Emphasizing South Asian Stability
For decades, the U.S. and India have worked closely in the region, countering Chinese influence in South Asia and beyond. The recent diplomatic meeting between Taliban officials and the Indian government was a sign to restore some semblance of normalcy in their relations. Trump has the potential to further deepen the ties between the Taliban and India.
For Pakistan, this will be a serious diplomatic challenge and a significant blow. It is crucial for Pakistan to ensure its western front does not become a focal point of an Indo-U.S.-Taliban alignment against Pakistan and its strategic policy doctrine in Afghanistan.
Looking Forward
The next four years of Trump’s presidency will indeed be very shaky and unpredictable for South Asia. But the question is, can the Taliban navigate this landscape with strategic foresight? Time will be the deciding factor in predicting their relationship with the United States of America. The future hangs in the balance, and only time will tell if they can rise to the occasion. The common people of Afghanistan, who have borne the brunt of the conflict more than the U.S. and Taliban, are yearning for a new dawn. A dawn that brings hope and expectations, and closes the dark chapter of Afghan history. They long for a future where peace and stability take root, and the scars of the past can begin to heal.
