Authors: Simant Shankar Bharti & Sandhya Nepal*
In November, the United States (US) presidential election witnessed the world’s eyes on the results, and former President Donald Trump once again snatched the win from his opponent Kamala Harris. The historical return of the President has several implications for the world. The most significant implications are about the foreign policy strategies of the countries in international relations (IR). There are five major orientations in the shifting dynamics in IR: 1) the Ukraine-Russia war; 2) the Iseral-Gaza (Middle-East) war; 3) China (potential escalation of the trade war with the US); 4) the Indo-Pacific region; and 5) the Global South’s emerging powers. These are key areas where academia and IR scholars talk about a lot, especially political and economic implications as well as the changing dynamics of the world order.
If we look from the classical realist perspective, US politics has always been influential for the world’s foreign policy and specifically their defence strategies and cooperation. America’s realist powers, such as unrivalled military, economic, and political power, are an old fashion that fundamentally shapes world politics. The international environment of world politics has constantly changed in the past decade. The rise of populist grievances and nationalism has invited the classical geopolitical fragmentations in the Global South after the West vs. Rest discourses in IR. This discussion especially focuses on what Trump’s presidency means for the Global South.
Political Implications
The Global South’s emerging powers, such as Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia, and South Africa, are shaping global politics in the age of changing geopolitics. Therefore, the great power has not only been the sole driver of geopolitics in IR anymore. The recent summits of the BRICS (Kazan 2024) and the G20 (New Delhi 2023) are evidence of the growing roles of the Global South in restructuring the political and economic landscape. Their proactive roles also challenge and renegotiate the world order in a significant way.
The previous Trump presidency significantly pushed the Global South to distance itself from China’s interests. Importantly, India has become part of the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). Although New Delhi and Beijing have been historical rivals, border tensions have always brought geopolitical and security complexity to South Asia. But India also had to close its partnership with Iran and minimise buying of the oil, etc. However, the Global South will collectively continue to maximise multipolarity between the US and China-Russia.
The second Trump presidency would bring geopolitical tensions and political instability, especially for Mexico in the context of a confrontational approach to immigration. If Mexico will not closely align with the US interest they can face serious geopolitical instability. The transactional nature of his approach to security alliances could potentially lead to a decrease in US security commitments to Mexico, which may encourage the country to enhance its defence capabilities on its own.
Economic Implication
The second Trump presidency can also bring substantial economic implications for the Global South due to his protectionist economic stance. During his speech, Trump already indicated the imposition of substantial tariffs on imports to the US, which can affect many developing countries. It could have potential consequences in areas of labour markets (jobs) and market instability, especially in Asia and Latin America. Trump is also not keen on EVs as he has specifically heralded in his campaign that on day one he will scrap the EV mandate.
Trump during his campaign promised to impose about 60% of tariffs on Chinese imports scraping its MFN status which will likely re-ignite the US-China trade war. If China is excluded from the MFN listing, then the tension could likely result in a shift of manufacturing base to other favourable nations in the Global South.
If Trump immediately begins to impose interest rates on imported goods from around the world it could result in inflation within the US to counter which the fiscal policy can be predicted to be adjusted thereby increasing interest rates. This could stir the global economy since the US dollar is used as a benchmark of global economic growth.
As the saying goes “When US sneezes, the world catches the cold”. With Trump being back at the Whitehouse, the global market is anticipated to have a prominent ripple effect as he is set to reverse the policies of the Biden administration aligning to his initial term policies. Emphasizing MAGA and the “America First” approach, international institutions may have less resource support with the US potentially shifting its role in global governance and allies like the EU could also find themselves in a pickle on both the economic and political front. While the international community may have been sceptical of Trump’s dramatic and no less grand comeback, the fact remains that the people of America have spoken and they have given Trump a card to the global community. Even though one can make concrete predictions about the global future, how the card pans out -only time can tell.
Concluding remarks observed that if Trump has been assertive about ending the Russia-Ukraine war, addressing which is likely to be one of the top to-do’s on his list. If his efforts are successful, the Russian market can make re-entry into the larger world economy having the sanctions lifted, which will contribute to bringing down the prices of many commodities along with fuel/oil. The end of war could be beneficial for the US and Global South, which can end the West vs. Rest debate in IR. It can also reduce the Global South’s postcolonial grievances, such as political, economic, and populist. In this scenario, India’s balancing roles will be continued.
Sandhya Nepal: Author is a Doctoral Candidate at the Doctoral School of Social Sciences, Discipline- International Relations, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland. https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2000-0136. https://x.com/Thought_Sandhya
