“In the unfolding saga of escalating tensions between China and Iran regarding Iran Nuclear Program. While both nations have historically maintained a careful approach, this nuanced situation calls for a more vigilant posture.”
Over recent years, we have witnessed a tense chess match unfold between China and Iran over Tehran’s persistent pursuit of its nuclear agenda. This cat-and-mouse game requires judicious handling owing to several critical factors that necessitate caution.
It has become paramount for Beijing to exercise prudent diplomacy to prevent unwarranted escalation and maintain regional stability. With mounting geopolitical challenges looming large, the international community needs to pay heed to the responsible behavior and circumspection in dealing with this volatile matter.
China’s Nuclear Power Position Matter
According to Global Energy Monitor, China is sitting on 3rd position the most contributing nuclear power in the world. Which mean China is having power to lead the world in operating nuclear power. China’s actively watching activity of global nuclear power. Regarding Iran’s nuclear program calls for a peaceful resolution through dialogue and negotiation. China supports the comprehensive and effective implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and has consistently urged Iran to adhere to its obligations under the deal. At the same time, China emphasizes the importance of lifting international sanctions against Iran, particularly those affecting normal economic activities such as banking and insurance sectors.
In practice, China’s position can appear somewhat ambiguous due to the reasons non-alignment principles, energy interests, multi-vector diplomacy, and geostrategic considerations. These complex motivations mean that China often takes a more measured tone compared to some Western powers when discussing the Iranian nuclear issue, avoiding direct criticism but encouraging compliance with the terms set out by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
What If Iran Violated Non-Proliferation Goals?
If Iran were to cross the limits imposed upon its nuclear program, either by exceeding agreed uranium enrichment levels, increasing stockpiles beyond permitted amounts, restricting IAEA inspections or pursuing weaponization activities, then there would be serious consequences concerning nuclear non-proliferation and regional security.
Arms Race
A potential consequence of Iran violating these limitations could trigger an arms race within the already volatile Middle East. Other countries in the region may feel compelled to pursue their own nuclear programs, escalating tensions between rival states and potentially destabilizing an already fragile part of the world.
Military Conflict
Violations risk provoking military intervention by Israel or the United States. Given their stated positions on containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, they may respond forcefully, which could result in devastating conflicts with severe humanitarian implications across the region.
Escalating Crisis And Sanctions
Overstepping the boundaries placed upon Iran’s nuclear development risks reimposing stringent sanctions aimed at curbing its ability to progress technologically. An intensifying crisis environment around the Iranian nuclear dispute could exacerbate existing social, political, and economic instabilities both domestically and internationally.
Nuclear Terrorism Threat
Allowing Iran to flout restrictions increases the likelihood of nuclear material falling into terrorist hands. Preventing nuclear terrorism is a critical aspect of ensuring global security; thus, allowing one state to breach constraints weakens counterterrorism initiatives and raises alarm worldwide.
Failure to enforce nonproliferation norms means damaging the integrity of the international system and emboldens rogue regimes. China is committed to preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and upholding international peace and stability, as evidenced by its active participation in multilateral efforts to address nonproliferation challenges, including the Iranian nuclear program. Preserving the rules-based order requires consistent messaging and enforcement of nonproliferation standards. Nevertheless, its unique national interests and priorities will continue shaping how it approaches this contentious matter.
Bilateral Cooperations
One notable example of Sino-Iranian cooperation related to Iran’s nuclear program was a joint agreement signed in 2016. According to reports, China agreed to provide technical assistance to Iran in the form of building two new reactors at the existing Arak heavy water research reactor site. This agreement aimed to modernize the facility and make it safer by reducing its potential to produce weapons-grade plutonium.
The agreement came after months of negotiations between China, Iran, and the P5+1 group (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) which resulted in the JCPOA, also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal.
There have been concerns about whether China fully comply with the commitments under this agreement and the broader sanctions imposed by United Nations on Iran due to its nuclear programme. Some analysts argue that China has continued to maintain trade relations with Iran in areas outside of the purview of these sanctions, including oil and gas sector, which could undermine the effectiveness of these measures. The situations remain dynamic and subject to change depending on various factors.
China’s Response
One significant aspect where China demonstrates a measured response is through constructive engagement at multilateral platforms, especially within IAEA. In IAEA meetings concerning Iran’s nuclear activities, Beijing ensures adherence to nonproliferation goals without disrupting bilateral ties.
China might choose to exercise restraint regarding the situation because it does not want to further strain relations with Western nations over the Iranian nuclear issue. Instead, China will likely continue advocating for diplomatic engagement and adherence to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), even as other parties involved in the agreement.
China maintain trade connections with Iran and may provide economic support but refrain from directly helping Tehran evade sanctions related to the nuclear program through the UN Security Council. Additionally, China probably won’t supply materials that can contribute to nuclear activities due to its longstanding policy of opposing nuclear proliferation and has consistently supported denuclearization efforts.
Since this matter falls under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, and therefore defer to the Security Council’s authority regarding the maintenance maintaining peace and stability in the region, especially given China’s historical position supporting the peaceful resolution of disputes, including the Iranian nuclear issue. How China responds to hypothetical scenarios involving the Iranian nuclear program without knowing more specific details, such as whether the matter is being discussed or decided upon by the UN Security Council.
China can encourage all relevant parties to resolve the issue through dialogue and negotiation, emphasizethe importance of abiding by the JCPOA and seeking a peaceful solution. This includes working closely with other signatories of the JCPOA, like Russia and European powers, to ensure the agreement remains intact despite US withdrawal. By doing so, China helps preserve the multilateral framework addressing the Iranian nuclear issue.
IAEA needs access to Iranian nuclear facilities. China can urge all parties to allow unrestricted inspections, enhancing transparency and promoting the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.
Encouraged by Iran’s adhere to its commitments under the JCPOA, China could boost bilateral trade ties with Tehran, providing much needed economic relief while still carefully avoiding secondary sanctions imposed by the USA. Such engagements should prioritize projects and investments contributing to civil nuclear cooperation, instead of those linked to the military sector.
When addressing the Iranian nuclear issue, China might offer limited concessions to entice Iran back into full compliance with the JCPOA. Nonetheless, any concession must proportionate to the significance of the making unauthorized acts by the DPRK rather than engaging in conducive to the nonproliferation regime, and it sets a dangerous precedent, particularly when considering the challenges posed by North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal.
As a permanent member of the UNSC, China can use veto power to prevent the adoption of resolutions deemed detrimental to its interest. Therefore, China unlikely employ the veto block resolutions calling for stricter measures against Iran. It may, however, use its veto to protect itself and allies from any unfair treatment by the Security Council.
One can deduce urgency sustains sobriety and proactive mediation avoiding myopic policies detrimental to enduring partnerships. Through diligent diplomacy focusing on consensus building and cooperative dispute resolution, China plays a crucial role thwarting potential conflagration emanating from conflicting narratives. Thus, fostering unity remains essential in averting disaster arising from unrestrained ambitions overriding rational judgement contributing to durable world order based on fairness, righteousness, and harmony – principles inherently necessary for long term amicable coexistence amongst states pursuing diverse strategic priorities.
