The inauguration of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto on October 20, 2024, has marked a swift recalibration of Indonesia’s foreign policy, underlined by its formal expression of interest in joining the BRICS bloc just days after Prabowo took office. Delivered by Foreign Minister Sugiono at the BRICS Plus Summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 24, this intent reflects a broader shift towards a foreign policy that not only asserts Indonesia’s independence but also seeks alignment with a global south coalition positioned against Western-dominated multilateral frameworks. Prabowo’s administration, diverging from the more cautious approach of his predecessor President Joko Widodo, views BRICS membership as a strategic means to enhance Indonesia’s agency within an increasingly multipolar world order.
This decision can be deeply analyzed through the lens of the balance of power theory. Kenneth Waltz (1979) in Theory of International Politics argues that states operate in a self-help system, where they must prioritize security and power to ensure survival in an anarchic international environment. BRICS, a bloc of emerging powers in the Global South, serves as a counterbalance to Western hegemony, offering Indonesia an alternative platform to navigate global power dynamics without excessive reliance on Western alliances. Joining BRICS can thus be seen as an effort to augment Indonesia’s influence by aligning with states that share a common interest in reshaping global governance structures that have historically marginalized non-Western countries. In this context, Prabowo’s proactive foreign policy seeks to shift the balance of power by participating in institutions that challenge existing Western-centric global institutions, thereby reinforcing Indonesia’s commitment to non-alignment and multipolarity
BRICS, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, represents a coalition of countries from the Global South with the explicit goal of recalibrating global governance away from Western influence. According to Amartya Sen (2006) in Identity and Violence: The Illusion of Destiny, the Global South is often relegated to subordinate roles within international institutions, and this marginalization perpetuates inequality in economic and policy-making spheres. BRICS, however, seeks to counterbalance these structural inequities by offering countries like Indonesia a collective voice to address common challenges, including economic dependency, security vulnerabilities, and technological asymmetries. Indonesia’s entry into this bloc could not only strengthen its own economy and political leverage but also contribute to broader efforts within the Global South to advocate for fairer and more inclusive global governance.
As Indonesia faces pressures from both Western and Chinese influences in the Asia-Pacific, BRICS provides a potential avenue for the country to assert its sovereignty. This alignment with the Global South allows Indonesia to actively participate in shaping a new multipolar global order, moving beyond traditional alliances while engaging with diverse partners to address shared economic and security goals. BRICS, in this sense, offers Indonesia the ability to engage in complex interdependence, a concept introduced by Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye (1977) in Power and Interdependence. Complex interdependence emphasizes that states are interconnected through multiple channels beyond military alliances, including economic and institutional ties that encourage cooperation on a range of issues. For Indonesia, aligning with BRICS represents an opportunity to establish these multi-faceted connections, thereby enhancing its resilience and bargaining power in an era of shifting global alliances. By reducing dependency on traditional Western-centric institutions and developing alternative economic and security networks, Indonesia can navigate the complexities of a multipolar world while championing the interests of the Global South.
Strategic Autonomy and Foreign Policy Realignment
The decision to join BRICS also aligns with Indonesia’s long-held principle of “bebas-aktif” or independent and active foreign policy, emphasizing non-alignment and neutrality. In the face of intensifying U.S.-China rivalry in the Asia-Pacific, BRICS provides a means for Indonesia to assert its strategic autonomy without appearing aligned with either superpower. By joining BRICS, Indonesia could enhance its influence within an organization that actively promotes multipolarity—a vision that Prabowo sees as essential for safeguarding Indonesia’s sovereignty in an increasingly polarized international system.
This recalibration of Indonesia’s foreign policy under Prabowo highlights a strategic shift toward a balance of power that mitigates reliance on any single alliance or bloc. As Waltz’s balance of power theory suggests, states like Indonesia seek alliances and partnerships that allow them to secure autonomy and hedge against the influence of dominant global powers. BRICS serves as a practical avenue for Prabowo’s administration to strengthen Indonesia’s position within a multipolar framework, ensuring that it can negotiate with both Western and Eastern blocs from a position of strength.
Positioning within the Global South and Diplomatic Influence
BRICS represents a distinct coalition within the Global South, one that Indonesia views as a platform for amplifying its diplomatic influence among emerging economies. With BRICS, Indonesia aligns itself with a bloc that prioritizes South-South cooperation, addressing systemic challenges faced by developing nations. Through BRICS, Indonesia has the opportunity to engage with countries that share its experiences of economic and technological dependency on developed nations, fostering a sense of solidarity in addressing these common issues. Indonesia’s inclusion in BRICS could thus serve as a catalyst for promoting Global South initiatives on issues ranging from climate change to equitable trade practices.
By joining BRICS, Indonesia also gains a platform to advocate for reform within existing global governance structures, including the United Nations and Bretton Woods institutions, where the interests of developing nations are often underrepresented. As Sen notes in “Identity and Violence,” the collective bargaining power of the Global South remains a critical component in the struggle to recalibrate power dynamics that perpetuate inequality and exclusion. Indonesia, within BRICS, can actively contribute to reforming these structures and advancing initiatives that prioritize the unique needs and perspectives of the Global South.
Through the lens of complex interdependence, Indonesia’s decision to join BRICS reflects a commitment to building multi-dimensional relationships with other Global South economies, as Keohane and Nye’s theory suggests. Rather than relying on traditional military alliances or single-nation partnerships, Indonesia can foster diverse economic, political, and institutional linkages within BRICS that promote cooperation and reduce dependencies on hegemonic powers. This interconnectedness enables Indonesia to pursue development goals and security initiatives in a way that reflects both its regional aspirations and its role within the broader Global South.
International Security Implications
BRICS membership not only enhances Indonesia’s economic resilience but also has significant implications for its security strategy. As a member of BRICS, Indonesia would have the opportunity to engage in non-aligned security dialogues and initiatives, providing an alternative to the security frameworks established by Western-led alliances or China-led initiatives in the Indo-Pacific. This option is especially pertinent given the ongoing tensions in the South China Sea, where Indonesia faces maritime security challenges that could benefit from collaboration with other BRICS members.
Indonesia’s participation in BRICS offers a platform for advancing maritime security, countering piracy, and addressing cybersecurity threats—issues that transcend traditional national boundaries and require a cooperative approach. As Indonesia’s security concerns increasingly involve non-traditional threats, BRICS could provide a valuable network for information-sharing, joint training, and regional security dialogues that align with Indonesia’s commitment to sovereignty and non-intervention. This form of security cooperation is particularly appealing to Indonesia, as it allows the country to strengthen its defense capabilities without the obligation of a formal military alliance.
Furthermore, the bloc’s shared anti-interventionist stance reinforces Indonesia’s ASEAN principle of non-interference, enhancing its capacity to counter external pressures and uphold its national interests. For Prabowo, who prioritizes Indonesia’s sovereignty and defense, BRICS membership could offer a channel for advancing these goals within a multilateral framework that aligns with Indonesia’s commitment to strategic autonomy.
BRICS and the Shift in Global Power Dynamics
Indonesia’s decision to join BRICS should be seen within the context of a shifting global power dynamic, where emerging economies are seeking greater representation and influence in international governance. Traditionally, global financial and political power has been concentrated within Western institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the United Nations Security Council. However, the rise of BRICS represents a concerted effort by countries from the Global South to create an alternative platform that addresses the needs and aspirations of developing nations, challenging the existing structures of Western dominance. This realignment of global power is especially critical in a multipolar world, where traditional Western influence is increasingly counterbalanced by the economic and political weight of emerging economies.
The theory of power transition provides insight into this shift. Power transition theory, developed by A.F.K. Organski (1968) and later expanded by Jacek Kugler (1980), suggests that global stability is disrupted when emerging powers challenge the hegemonic status quo. As BRICS gains economic and geopolitical significance, it symbolizes a collective challenge to Western hegemony, marking the advent of a new era in which multiple centers of power coexist and compete. For Indonesia, joining BRICS aligns it with this emerging power bloc, reinforcing its commitment to multipolarity and enhancing its voice within a shifting global order.
Indonesia’s entry into BRICS contributes to this evolving structure, signaling a shift toward what some scholars describe as “polycentric” global governance. Polycentrism envisions a world where power is decentralized and distributed across various poles, as opposed to being concentrated within a single dominant nation or bloc. With the inclusion of Indonesia, BRICS strengthens its capacity to act as a counterweight to Western-dominated institutions, providing a forum for the Global South to pursue policies that prioritize economic independence, equitable trade practices, and inclusive development. As Indonesia joins other BRICS members in advocating for reform within the UN and other global institutions, it contributes to a broader effort to reshape the international order to reflect the interests and values of a multipolar world.
Implications for a New World Order
The growth of BRICS as a coalition of emerging powers signals a possible reconfiguration of the international system toward a new world order where multiple power centers coexist, often with divergent interests and values. Indonesia’s alignment with BRICS under Prabowo’s administration highlights a strategic pivot that moves beyond traditional alliances and embraces a broader, more inclusive multilateralism. This shift has far-reaching implications for global governance, as the rise of BRICS and similar coalitions of emerging economies calls into question the legitimacy and representativeness of established Western-centric institutions.
Indonesia’s membership in BRICS offers it an active role in shaping this new world order, particularly by engaging in initiatives that reflect the collective interests of the Global South. As BRICS expands, it could provide an alternative framework for global cooperation that addresses issues such as climate change, trade inequality, and access to technology from a perspective that aligns more closely with the needs of developing nations. In doing so, BRICS could reduce the dependency of the Global South on Western-controlled systems, allowing countries like Indonesia to assert greater sovereignty over their economic and policy decisions.
The Role of Complex Interdependence in BRICS and Global South Cooperation
The concept of complex interdependence, proposed by Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye (1977) relevant in understanding Indonesia’s decision to join BRICS as it exemplifies how nations in the Global South are forming multifaceted, interdependent relationships that transcend military alliances. BRICS operates on the principle of mutual economic benefit, technological exchange, and institutional cooperation, with a shared interest in reforming global governance structures to make them more inclusive. Through complex interdependence, BRICS countries, including Indonesia, build networks that strengthen their collective resilience, reduce dependency on Western financial systems, and encourage cooperation on shared challenges.
In the BRICS framework, complex interdependence enables Indonesia to establish economic and political ties with countries like China, India, and Brazil, while maintaining its independence in decision-making. This interconnectedness mitigates traditional power imbalances and allows Indonesia to access a network of resources and partnerships that support its development goals without compromising its non-aligned stance. Furthermore, by participating in BRICS, Indonesia and other Global South countries contribute to an evolving form of global governance where influence is distributed across diverse actors, fostering a more balanced international system.
Conclusion
Indonesia’s decision to join BRICS marks a pivotal moment in its foreign policy, as it seeks to contribute to a reconfigured global order that emphasizes multipolarity and inclusive governance. Through BRICS, Indonesia aligns itself with a bloc that challenges Western-centric institutions, advocating for a new world order that reflects the values and interests of the Global South. This shift represents not only an assertion of Indonesia’s independence but also an embrace of complex interdependence, where multiple nations collaborate to address shared global challenges while preserving their sovereignty.
BRICS, as a coalition of emerging economies, has the potential to reshape global governance by offering an alternative framework for economic and political cooperation, ultimately paving the way for a more equitable and multipolar world order. For Indonesia, membership in BRICS offers a strategic platform to assert its autonomy, diversify its partnerships, and contribute to the development of a new international system that better serves the interests of developing nations. Under President Prabowo Subianto’s leadership, Indonesia’s entry into BRICS reaffirms its commitment to non-alignment and positions it as a proactive agent of change within an increasingly complex and interconnected world.
