“We don’t want Sri Lanka to be sandwiched, especially between China and India.” “There are many power camps within a multipolar system. We won’t be a part of that geopolitical fight, nor will we be aligned with any party.” –Anura Kumara Dissanayake
The political landscape of Sri Lanka has undergone a historic shift with the election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake as the country’s new president. Dissanayake, the left-leaning leader of the National People’s Power (NPP), a coalition that includes the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), won the presidency after a second round of vote counting, where he garnered 5,740,179 votes to opposition leader Sajith Premadasa’s 4,530,902. The election, held on September 21, 2024, marked a pivotal moment in Sri Lankan politics, not only because no candidate managed to secure over 50% of the vote in the first round, but also due to the backdrop of economic crisis and political turmoil that has gripped the nation since 2022.
A Promise of Change Amidst Economic Crisis
Dissanayake’s victory was fueled by promises of good governance, anti-corruption reforms, and an agenda that aims to revitalize the economy. Sri Lanka, grappling with a severe economic crisis, has been on the brink of collapse, defaulting on its foreign debt and struggling with inflation, shortages, and fiscal instability. Dissanayake’s proposed solution is a robust development strategy focusing on manufacturing, agriculture, and information technology (IT). His vision is to push the country toward self-sufficiency in key sectors while embracing the global economy to foster growth and stability.
One of the most significant aspects of Dissanayake’s economic policy is his commitment to continuing the bailout deal struck by his predecessor, Ranil Wickremesinghe, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The $2.9 billion lifeline from the IMF is seen as critical for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery, although it comes with stringent austerity measures. Dissanayake, however, has vowed to mitigate the negative impacts of these austerity measures on the country’s poorest citizens. He has articulated a clear stance on ensuring that while the IMF deal is honored, the most vulnerable in society are shielded from the worst effects of economic reforms.
This balancing act, between staying true to his leftist ideals and embracing pragmatic economic policies, has been a hallmark of Dissanayake’s campaign. While some fear that his Marxist background may influence his policy decisions, his public declarations suggest a more moderate approach aimed at restoring investor confidence. The economic restructuring that Sri Lanka has embarked on, including debt restructuring efforts which have already tackled $17 billion of the country’s $83 billion debt, will be a key priority for the new president.
Confronting the JVP’s Legacy and Embracing a New Era
Dissanayake’s victory also represents a significant moment for the JVP, which has long been associated with violence and insurrection. The JVP led two armed uprisings in the 1970s and 1980s, events that have cast a long shadow over the party’s political journey. In recent years, the JVP, and Dissanayake in particular, have worked to distance themselves from this violent past and rebrand the party as a force for progressive, democratic change. The JVP’s role in the 2022 mass protests, known as the “Aragalaya” (Sinhala for struggle), was instrumental in raising the party’s profile and connecting it to the broader demands of the people for accountability, transparency, and a new political order.
Dissanayake’s leadership during these protests earned him significant political capital, as he positioned himself as a champion of the people, advocating for systemic change while respecting democratic principles. His rise to the presidency, therefore, can be seen as the culmination of this transformation, where the JVP’s revolutionary roots have been channeled into a mainstream political force capable of winning a national election.
That said, Dissanayake’s Marxist background has not been forgotten, particularly by business groups and investors who remain wary of his economic policies. The president’s pledge to cut taxes, for instance, has raised concerns about whether Sri Lanka will be able to meet the IMF’s fiscal targets. Nonetheless, Dissanayake has reassured international stakeholders that any economic reforms, including those relating to debt restructuring, will be undertaken in consultation with the IMF. This pragmatic approach suggests that while his administration may seek to adjust certain aspects of the economic recovery plan, it will not abandon the commitments already made by the previous government.
Foreign Policy: Balancing China and India
Dissanayake’s foreign policy is poised to be a delicate balancing act, as Sri Lanka navigates its relationships with its two largest and most influential neighbors—India and China. Historically, the JVP has been seen as pro-China and anti-India, with its founder, Rohana Wijeweera, criticizing Indian influence in Sri Lanka. Dissanayake’s own political career has included moments of skepticism toward India, particularly in relation to the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution, which was introduced as part of the India-Sri Lanka Accord in 1987 to grant political autonomy to the Tamil minority. Dissanayake has expressed reservations about fully implementing this amendment, a position that contrasts with the pro-India stance of opposition leader Sajith Premadasa.
Dissanayake has also demonstrated a willingness to engage with India in a constructive manner. During his election campaign, he pledged that Sri Lanka’s land, sea, and airspace would not be used to threaten India’s security—a statement aimed at reassuring New Delhi about Sri Lanka’s geopolitical alignment. Additionally, despite his party’s historical opposition to Indian projects in Sri Lanka, Dissanayake has shown an openness to collaborating with India, particularly in areas where transparency and corruption have been issues.
For instance, while he has raised concerns about the Adani Group’s involvement in a 450 MW wind power project in Sri Lanka, citing environmental and sovereignty issues, he has also signaled that this does not mean a wholesale rejection of Indian investment. Rather, Dissanayake appears to be advocating for a more transparent and accountable process in foreign investments, whether they come from India or China.
In terms of China, Dissanayake’s position is similarly complex. Sri Lanka owes $7 billion of its foreign debt to China, making it the island’s largest bilateral creditor. The Chinese government has played a significant role in Sri Lanka’s infrastructure development, including high-profile projects such as the Hambantota Port and the Colombo Port City. These projects have not been without controversy, with allegations of corruption and concerns over debt dependency. Dissanayake has been vocal about the need to review these agreements, particularly those that may compromise Sri Lanka’s sovereignty, but he is unlikely to take a confrontational approach toward Beijing. Instead, his focus is likely to be on renegotiating terms and ensuring that Chinese investments align with Sri Lanka’s long-term interests.
U.S. Praises Sri Lanka’s Democratic Strength Following Dissanayake’s Presidential Victory
The U.S. State Department extended its congratulations to Anura Kumara Dissanayake following his presidential victory, highlighting the significance of the election. In a statement, spokesperson Matthew Miller emphasized that the outcome reflects the resilience of Sri Lanka’s democratic institutions and the dedication of its people to forging their future through peaceful and democratic processes. This recognition underscores the international community’s confidence in Sri Lanka’s ability to uphold democratic values and navigate its political challenges constructively. The U.S.’s positive response signals a commitment to maintaining strong diplomatic ties with Sri Lanka, offering support as the nation embarks on a new chapter under Dissanayake’s leadership. This diplomatic acknowledgment is an encouraging sign for future collaboration between the two countries, as Sri Lanka continues its journey toward economic recovery and political stability.
Challenges Ahead: A Divided Mandate
While Dissanayake’s victory is significant, the close nature of the election underscores the challenges he faces in uniting the country. With 42.31% of the vote in the first round, followed by a slim majority in the second round, Dissanayake does not have an overwhelming mandate. This could complicate his efforts to push through the reforms he has promised, particularly in the face of opposition from political rivals and entrenched business interests.
The economic crisis that Dissanayake has inherited will require decisive action and international cooperation. His administration will need to navigate the complex web of IMF conditions, debt restructuring, and domestic political pressures while ensuring that the poorest Sri Lankans are not disproportionately affected by austerity measures.
Dissanayake’s ability to deliver on his promises will likely determine the long-term success of his presidency. If he can strike the right balance between economic reform and social justice, while maintaining good relations with both India and China, he has the potential to lead Sri Lanka out of its current crisis and into a more prosperous future. However, the path ahead is fraught with challenges, and his presidency will be closely watched by both domestic and international observers.
In conclusion, Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s victory represents a turning point for Sri Lanka. His ascent to the highest office is a reflection of the public’s desire for change and accountability. As he takes on the monumental task of stabilizing the economy, rebuilding public trust, and navigating complex foreign relations, the eyes of the nation—and the world—are on him. How he balances his Marxist roots with the pragmatic demands of governance will define his presidency and the future of Sri Lanka.
