Since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, the country has been experiencing interim relief after a two-decade-long battle. Nevertheless, the presence of terrorist groups inside Afghanistan particularly the growing influence of Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) and the Taliban’s ambiguous position on Al-Qaeda has huge implications for the regime. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan headed by the Taliban has been facing mounting challenges.
The Islamic State- Khorasan, an affiliate of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS, ISIL, Daesh or Islamic State) has a strong presence in Afghanistan, targeting various countries in South and Central Asia to destabilise the governments including the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. The Taliban has been involved in the active battle against IS-K. On the contrary, Al-Qaeda’s existence in Afghanistan and its subtle relationship with the Taliban have critical implications for the de facto government. In addition to the complex dynamics, it is also important to note the differences and power struggle between Al Qaeda and Islamic State as both have been actively establishing footholds inside Afghanistan.
Al Qaeda and ISIS – companion turned competitor
Al Qaeda and Islamic State are Sunni Islamists that have shared ideological beliefs of transnational Salafist Jihadism to build an Islamic caliphate. Rather, they differed in their approach, tactics, strategy and targets. Al Qaeda has its predominant base in Afghanistan and Pakistan, however, the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003 provided grounds for various armed actors to exploit the state of anarchy. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a close associate of Al Qaeda’s founder Osama Bin Laden founded Al Qaeda Iraq (AQI) in 2004.
Despite the common idea of targeting apostates, differences in approach emerged between Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda Iraq. Both have an animosity towards Western countries, Shia Muslims, Kurds, Yazidis and Christians in the region as they regard them as apostates. However, the Al Qaeda core group has prioritised the targeting of Western troops and the pro-west puppet regimes in the Middle East. Albeit, AQI under Zarqawi was largely sectarian in outlook and targeted Shias viciously. Even the Al Qaeda leadership has raised concerns about AQI’s method. Al Qaeda believes that support of the Ummah (community) is needed to establish a pan-Islamic rule.
After the top leaders were assassinated, the internal strife over the dominance in Iraq and Syria, the AQI diverged from Al Qaeda’s core. Subsequently, it was renamed ISIS under the leadership of Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi and separated from Al Qaeda in 2014. One of the core differences is that Al Qaeda allied with various local affiliates including the Taliban and it granted considerable autonomy over the local interpretations of governance. In contrast, ISIS adheres to centralised control and enforces its stricter version of interpretation barring provincial autonomy.[1] Even it had termed the Taliban as ‘crusaders’ for the negotiations with the United States in Doha. Ideologically, the Taliban differs from both ISIS and Al Qaeda as it adheres to Hanafi Deobandi and Pashtun nationalism.
Al Qaeda and Taliban – Clandestine Friendship
According to The Mirror, Bin Laden’s son Hamza Bin Laden is still alive presumably sheltering in Iran and Afghanistan.[2] He was allegedly killed by an American counterterrorism operation in 2019. The recent reports reveal that he has been engaging with senior Taliban leaders and also planning for massive attacks against the West. The stronghold of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan has also been evident after the United States drone strike killed Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in 2022. According to the UN report, Al Qaeda operates training camps in 12 provinces and it indicated that the group use Afghanistan as a ‘permissive haven’.[3]
The various evidence of the Taliban-Al Qaeda secret relationship has been inflicting pressure on the Taliban that further distress its efforts for international recognition. However, the alliance between both sides cannot be viewed from a narrow dimension. It has been attached to a myriad of elements that cannot be set aside, ranging from ‘bay’ah’ to marriages and kinship networks of Al Qaeda members in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda’s leader Osama had pledged bay’ah (allegiance- a pledge of loyalty) to then-Taliban leader Mullah Omar. The violation of bay’ah is regarded as an offence in Sharia law.[4] Before the 9\11 attack, the United States pressured the Taliban to extradite Osama but Mullah Omar refused despite some leaders of the Taliban also warning him to stay away from Al Qaeda.
Al Qaeda and Taliban relations are embedded in political, social, economic and logistical aspects. Rather than antagonism against the Western establishment, the stronger ties date back even during the first Taliban regime (1996-2001) when Al Qaeda provided military support to embolden the Taliban against its rival Northern alliance. In addition, the bureaucratic, staffing and standardising curriculum were handled by Al Qaeda during the previous rule.[5] Perhaps, the relationship between Al Qaeda and the Taliban is complex and deeply intertwined.
Al Qaeda and Taliban are believed to keep their engagement in a low profile to avert the vulnerabilities that would serve the mutual interests of both sides. Once Al Qaeda’s top leader Atiyyat Allah al-Libbi admitted, “of course the Taliban’s policy is to avoid being seen with us or revealing any cooperation or agreement between us and them. That is for the purpose of averting international and regional pressure”.[6] Due to the shadow cooperation, the future agenda and converging interests remain sceptical regardless of the persisting Al Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan.
Taliban and Islamic State Khorasan – An Active Battle
Amidst the withdrawal of U.S. troops in 2021, the suicide bombing at Kabul Airport was regarded as one of the deadliest incidents in the war-torn country killing around 170 civilians and 13 U.S. soldiers. On March 22, 2024, Russia experienced one of the worst terror attacks in its history, killing around 140 people in Crocus City Hall. These attacks were carried out by Islamic State – Khorasan, a regional branch of ISIS in Afghanistan.
The Islamic State Khorasan province has been formed to fight against the apostates in the region of Khorasan province that extends across Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Iran. The IS-K terror operations extend to the South and Central Asian region. The IS-K emerged in Afghanistan after the defected fighters from the Taliban, Al Qaeda and Tehrik-e-Taliban formed the group under the direction of ISIS in 2015. IS-K has been active in the eastern provinces of Kunar and Nangarhar which share a border with Pakistan.
Under the Doha agreement, the Taliban pledged to curb the terrorist activities within Afghanistan and repeatedly emphasised that it would not permit the terrorist groups to operate on its territory. Accordingly, the Taliban has been battling actively against IS-K and even killed top leaders like Qari Fateh and Abu Usman Al-Kashmiri in a counter-terrorism operation. According to a senior US envoy, the Taliban’s successful offensive against IS-K has degraded the IS-K capability.[7] However, the rising attacks and interdictions of multiple plots of IS-K by the enforcement agencies in countries like India, Iran, Qatar, Maldives, Turkey and Germany would place additional pressure on the Taliban.
Drawing its ideological lines from ISIS, unsurprisingly, the Islamic State-Khorasan is sectarian and has been brutally targeting the Hazaras. The majority of the Shias in Afghanistan belong to the Hazara ethnic community. Since the Taliban takeover in 2021, the IS-K claimed responsibility for at least 17 attacks against Hazaras, killing and injuring around 700 people.[8] The targeting of Shia mosques, workplaces and schools of minorities exacerbates the outcry among the international community. IS-K has also been targeting tourists as recently three people from Spain were killed in Bamiyan.[9] The Islamic State-Khorasan is undermining the Taliban’s external outreach through terror attacks and also striving to advance its aim of establishing a caliphate.
Implications for Taliban
Nevertheless, regarding counter-terrorism, the Taliban has been taking significant measures to curb the Islamic State-Khorasan but its secret relationship with Al Qaeda is indeed a serious concern. By exploring the hypothetical scenarios,
Firstly, if the Taliban detach from Al Qaeda’s complex relationship, then the ultra-conservative fighters would join either Al Qaeda or IS-K. Moreover, the Taliban has its affiliation with other Salafist groups like Jamat al-Dawah ila al-Quran wal-Sunnah and Imam Bukhari Jamaat that might shift the camp and perhaps also turn against the Taliban. However, in case of pursuing a secret relationship with Al Qaeda would also have negative consequences over the recognition of the Taliban government.
Secondly, the Taliban’s pragmatic outreach to regional countries negatively impacts its relationship with its allies. For example, the growing closeness with China has disappointed the Uyghur militant group East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). The intelligence indicates that ETIM would shift its allegiance towards IS-K.[10] conversely, if the Taliban adheres to its allies’ ideology and neglects engagement with regional countries, it could further exacerbate economic woes, prop up instability and create conditions conducive to IS-K recruitment.
Thirdly, the exact relations between Al Qaeda and IS-K are understudied. In 2014, the power struggle between Al Qaeda’s affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS in Syria turned into a battle that led to ISIS’s disintegration from Al Qaeda. In a hypothetical situation, if the Taliban aligns with Al Qaeda to contend the IS-K it would also have severe ramifications on its counter-terrorism pledge given to the world.
The Great Dilemma
Compared to the preceding rule, the present Taliban government has been pragmatic and optimistic in engaging with the world. The de facto government has been vying to resume diplomatic relations with the countries and seeking international recognition to stabilise the country. Nevertheless, various governments and international bodies raised serious concerns over women and minority rights. Furthermore, the complex challenges emanating from Islamic State-Khorasan and its ties with Al Qaeda would have repercussions on the regime’s long-term survival. The Taliban has been caught in a dilemma in which any of its decisions in this realm will likely have significant consequences.
[1] https://idsa.in/issuebrief/Al-Qaeda-vs-ISIS-sakidwai-230523
[2] https://www.themirror.com/news/world-news/osama-bin-ladens-dead-son-691261
[3] https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/afghanistan-under-taliban-remains-permissive-haven-for-al-qaeda-unsc-report-101721131572075.html
[4] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58473574
[5] https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/22/al-qaeda-taliban-afghanistan-gold-mining/
[6] https://mwi.westpoint.edu/untying-the-gordian-knot-why-the-taliban-is-unlikely-to-break-ties-with-al-qaeda/
[7] https://www.voanews.com/a/us-envoy-taliban-kill-8-key-islamic-state-leaders-in-afghanistan/7266218.html
[8] https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/09/06/afghanistan-isis-group-targets-religious-minorities
[9] https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/islamic-state-claims-responsibility-for-deadly-tourist-attack-in-afghanistan
[10] https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/etim-may-shift-to-iskp-with-taliban-china-alliance-over-xinjiang-101630304620049.html
