The 2024 US Election: The First-Generation Z election and why that might doom Trump

Youth voting will once again be vital in the race towards the US presidency. With the mass use of social media and other Zoomer tools both candidates have strived to appeal to this growing demographic in what is truly, the first Gen Z election.

Youth voting will once again be vital in the race towards the US presidency. With the mass use of social media and other Zoomer tools (Bitcoins, NFTs, etc), both candidates have strived to appeal to this growing demographic in what is truly, the first Gen Z election. That fact greatly benefits Harris, but she can’t rest on her laurels since low youth turnout would help the 45th president.

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We are all familiar with the generational labels that define different age groups: Millennials (born 1981-1996), Baby Boomers (1946-1964), and Generation X (1965-1980). Following these cohorts, there is a general agreement that Generation Z, or Zoomers, emerged between 1997 and 2012, coinciding with the rise of the Internet and social media. Currently, individuals aged 18 to 27 make up over 13% of the total U.S. population, making their perspectives crucial in determining the next occupant of the White House. Consequently, both presidential candidates are actively seeking to engage younger voters.

In past elections, particularly before 2016, candidates lacked effective strategies to connect with young voters on a personal level. The media landscape was vastly different; people primarily consumed news through print sources, which were generally trusted. Despite this, some candidates throughout recent US history have made innovative attempts to attract younger voters:

Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign was a ground-breaking example of a candidate trying to connect with young voters by appearing on MTV in a town hall where he answered questions on issues like drugs, music censorship, and youth concerns. His famous moment of playing the saxophone on “The Arsenio Hall Show” as well as his “boxers or Briefs?” moment also helped him connect with younger, culturally attuned voters.

Even with its failed ending, Howard Dean’s 2004 Democratic primary campaign was a true pioneer in its use of the internet to reach younger voters. His campaign was one of the first to extensively use online forums, blogs, and email to mobilize young voters and activists. Dean’s campaign leveraged platforms like Meetup.com to organize grassroots gatherings, encouraging young supporters to meet and discuss political issues in person.

By 2008 and 2012 the Internet was an integral part of life and Obama’s campaign had a dedicated website, my.barackobama.com (also known as MyBO), which allowed young people to create profiles, organize events, and raise funds, giving them a sense of ownership in the campaign. His appearances in shows such as The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, as well as his connection with celebrities and youth influencers gave young people the idea he was like them. His optimistic slogans like “Yes We Can” and “Hope and Change” resonated deeply with younger audiences, the former being made into a hit song by will.i.am with 7.8 million views. This mastery of new technologies gave him a historic lead in young people turnout, with 66% and 60% of people under 30 voting for him in both successful campaigns.

In 2016, Trump used the anti-immigration, anti-establishment rhetoric to transform presidential races for decades to come. Instead of substance, the races became ones of headlines, with information from the “fake” news/media being increasingly ostracized. For the most part of any American Gen Z’s life, Trump has dominated those headlines. Nobody has forgotten the “Build a wall!” or the “Lock her up!” chants, but many forget Hillary Clintons efforts to connect with young people, encapsulated (like a Poke ball) in her famous meme/gaffe/appeal of “Pokémon GO to the polls”. Since Trump got off that escalator, he has become adept not only at using social media to appeal to younger voters in their environment of choice, but also to shape their beliefs through their use of those platforms with the creation of long-lasting headlines.

The 2020 election was the next step in this evolution of propaganda, with most of the country effectively forced to consume social media due to the lack of in person gatherings. X, formerly known as Twitter, had become Trumps crier, with the former president dictating policy, and showing an insight into his emotional state and private life the moment he tweeted something. Examples of this ranged from all caps lock rants against perceived enemies to announcements of tariffs on goods. Come election day, like 2016, Trump garnered less support amongst youngsters than the media coverage and social media traffic pointed towards, nevertheless seeing an increase from 28% to 35%. His rival, Joe Biden, didn’t use the power of social media much (probably for the better seeing his proclivity for unforced errors), but benefited from a trend in young people voting increasingly Democrat since 2004 to maintain the stranglehold on youth voters. No Republican has won young Americans since 1988.

Before Bidens exit, Trump was tantalizingly close to achieving this feat, with polls suggesting he was leading in this key demographic. He was, and is, very active on TikTok (angering many conservatives who want to ban the platform), meeting with influencers and appearing on podcasts. Additionally, he has hugged the cryptocurrency world. He’s boosted NFTs, vowed to end regulatory hostility and endorsed U.S.-mined Bitcoin to help America become “energy dominant.”, as well as vowing to get rid of tip taxation. All to court young voters who were disillusioned with Biden.  

Coming to the present day though, Kamala Harris seems set to reap the benefits of another blue youth wave, having flipped the presidential race upside down with her entry and ushering a new appeal for the Democratic Party, as the party of optimism opportunity and youth. Popular TikTok videos and widely shared memes with coconut trees, ample allusions to the trendy term “brat”, “weird”, “cat lady “, or the latest troll on Trumps “They’re eating the cats and dogs” explain the allure of a young, diverse, and optimistic candidate to youth voters (with similarities to Obamas campaign).

All of this doesn’t mean that the youth vote is a given for Harris, as many metrics suggest young people consistently show lower voter turnout compared to older demographics. In the 2022 midterms, only 25.5% of individuals aged 18 to 29 participated, compared to 63.1% of those aged 60 and above. While the 2020 election saw a slight increase in youth participation at 52.5%, it remains significantly lower than older voters. Research highlights two primary barriers to youth voting: a lack of interest and difficulties in navigating the voting process. Although about 77% of young people express intention to vote, this is still lower than the 90% of older citizens who plan to participate and are skewed towards Trump. Here the role of social media cannot be understated:

Initiatives aimed at simplifying voter registration (with preregistration or same day registration) and providing logistical support (when and where to vote) have shown promise and these; shown through social media; can help millions of voters to successfully vote by guiding already busy youngsters through the hassle of voting for the first time.

For the first time, more than half of Gen Z will be able to vote in an election where both candidates are actively using their daily information sources to convey their messages. Trump might be experienced in their use, but history and recent polls suggest that young people are going to vote en masse for the VP, and that could spell disaster for the former president’s campaign.

Mikel López
Mikel López
24 year old historian and recent Master of International Relations and International Business. Freelance writer and deeply curious, his area of research interest ranges from EU affairs to the History of International Relations. He can be reached by mail at : mikellopezp99[at]gmail.com