From Tehran to Ankara, Riyadh’s olive branch signals a seismic shift in Saudi Arabia’s regional approach, one that balances assertiveness with pragmatism.
Saudi Arabia, long regarded as a dominant player in the Middle East and the broader Arab world, has undergone a significant transformation in its foreign policy in recent years. Traditionally, the Kingdom’s approach to regional affairs has been marked by an assertive stance, with a particular focus on securing its interests in a turbulent region. However, under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), there has been a notable shift toward a policy of “zero problems with neighbors.” This approach aims to reduce tensions with neighboring countries and promote regional stability. This article delves into the motivations, implications, and challenges of Saudi Arabia’s evolving foreign policy, exploring the key regional relationships and initiatives that embody the Kingdom’s new diplomatic approach.
Historical Context of Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy
For decades, Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy has been shaped by several key factors: its status as the leading oil producer in the world, its role as the birthplace of Islam, and its rivalry with regional powers like Iran. Traditionally, Saudi Arabia has been a conservative monarchy with a cautious foreign policy, but it has also engaged in assertive actions when it perceives threats to its security or influence in the region.
Historically, Saudi Arabia has maintained an alliance with Western powers, particularly the United States, which has provided security guarantees in exchange for access to the Kingdom’s vast oil reserves. At the same time, the Kingdom has often positioned itself as a leader of the Arab and Islamic world, using its religious and financial clout to shape regional politics, especially through organizations like the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
However, the region’s turmoil, especially following the Arab Spring, the rise of Iran as a regional power, and the spread of conflicts in countries like Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, has placed immense pressure on Saudi Arabia’s traditional approach. The Kingdom has found itself embroiled in conflicts, particularly in Yemen, and has faced increasing criticism for its involvement in regional disputes. Against this backdrop, the policy shift toward “zero problems with neighbors” marks a significant recalibration of its foreign strategy.
Zero Problems with Neighbors: The Policy Framework
The “zero problems” doctrine is not new to the Middle East. The term was popularized by Turkey in the early 2000s under the leadership of Ahmet Davutoğlu, then foreign minister, who advocated for a foreign policy that sought to minimize conflicts with neighboring countries and prioritize economic and diplomatic ties. Saudi Arabia’s adaptation of a similar approach reflects its desire to pivot from a period of confrontation and conflict to one of dialogue, diplomacy, and economic cooperation.
The Vision 2030 reform agenda, championed by Crown Prince MBS, plays a crucial role in shaping the Kingdom’s new foreign policy orientation. Vision 2030 seeks to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy away from oil dependence, positioning it as a hub for trade, tourism, and investment. To achieve these goals, Saudi Arabia recognizes the need for regional stability and peaceful relations with its neighbors, particularly in a highly volatile region like the Middle East.
In this context, the “zero problems with neighbors” policy seeks to mend fractured relationships, build new alliances, and create a more predictable and secure environment for economic growth. The policy has several key components:
- Diplomatic Engagement: Saudi Arabia has intensified its diplomatic efforts to resolve long-standing conflicts and reduce tensions with neighboring countries, including those with whom it has had strained relations, such as Iran and Qatar.
- Economic Cooperation: By fostering stronger economic ties with its neighbors, Saudi Arabia hopes to create interdependencies that make conflict less likely and collaboration more beneficial for all parties involved.
- Mediation and Conflict Resolution: Saudi Arabia has increasingly taken on the role of a mediator in regional conflicts, positioning itself as a peacemaker rather than a protagonist in regional disputes.
- Security and Stability: While reducing overt military interventions, Saudi Arabia remains committed to ensuring its national security and protecting its interests in the region through diplomacy and security cooperation.
Saudi-Iran Relations: A Key Test of the Policy
One of the most significant challenges for Saudi Arabia’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy is its relationship with Iran. The two regional powers have long been rivals, competing for influence in the Middle East, particularly in the aftermath of the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which established an Islamic Republic in Tehran. The rivalry has often manifested in proxy conflicts across the region, including in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
However, recent developments suggest a thawing of relations between Riyadh and Tehran. In 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran resumed diplomatic talks, facilitated by China, leading to a landmark agreement to reopen embassies and restore full diplomatic relations after years of hostilities. This rapprochement is a direct result of Saudi Arabia’s “zero problems” approach, as the Kingdom seeks to de-escalate tensions and reduce the risks of conflict in the region.
The detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran has significant implications for regional stability. By engaging in dialogue rather than confrontation, Saudi Arabia hopes to neutralize potential threats from Iran and create a more stable regional environment. The agreement has also raised hopes for a resolution to the ongoing conflict in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and Iran have supported opposing sides.
The Qatar Crisis and Regional Reconciliation
Another significant development in Saudi Arabia’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy is the resolution of the Qatar crisis. In 2017, Saudi Arabia, along with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Egypt, imposed a blockade on Qatar, accusing the small Gulf state of supporting terrorism and fostering close ties with Iran. The blockade led to a deep rift within the GCC and strained relations across the region.
However, in 2021, under the auspices of Kuwaiti mediation, Saudi Arabia and Qatar restored full diplomatic relations, bringing an end to the three-year blockade. The reconciliation with Qatar is a testament to Saudi Arabia’s commitment to reducing tensions within its immediate neighborhood. By healing the rift, Saudi Arabia aims to strengthen the GCC as a unified bloc and enhance its role in promoting regional stability.
The Yemen Conflict: Toward Peace?
One of the most critical issues for Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy is the ongoing war in Yemen. Saudi Arabia has been deeply involved in the conflict since 2015, when it launched a military intervention to support the Yemeni government against Houthi rebels, who are aligned with Iran. The war has resulted in one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with widespread civilian casualties and the destruction of Yemen’s infrastructure.
As part of its “zero problems” policy, Saudi Arabia has sought to extricate itself from the conflict and find a peaceful resolution. In 2022, the Kingdom engaged in negotiations with the Houthis, leading to a ceasefire and ongoing peace talks. While the situation in Yemen remains fragile, Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic efforts represent a shift away from military interventionism and toward conflict resolution.
Challenges and Opportunities
Despite the promising signs of a shift in Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy, the “zero problems with neighbors” approach faces significant challenges. Regional rivalries, sectarian tensions, and unresolved conflicts could derail efforts at reconciliation. For example, while the Saudi-Iran rapprochement is a positive development, the long-standing mistrust between the two nations could make sustained cooperation difficult.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s relationship with countries like Turkey and Israel remains complex. While there have been attempts to improve ties with Turkey, especially following the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, relations are still strained. Saudi Arabia’s position on normalizing relations with Israel also remains a sensitive issue, as it seeks to balance its leadership role in the Arab world with the desire to avoid alienating its Palestinian allies.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia’s policy of zero problems presents significant opportunities. By reducing regional tensions, the Kingdom can focus more on its ambitious domestic reforms under Vision 2030, attract foreign investment, and promote economic growth. Improved relations with neighbors also strengthen Saudi Arabia’s leadership role in the Arab and Islamic world, positioning it as a key player in shaping the future of the region.
Hence, to conclude Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy of zero problems with neighbors marks a significant departure from its past approach to regional affairs. By prioritizing dialogue, diplomacy, and economic cooperation over conflict and confrontation, the Kingdom hopes to reduce tensions in the Middle East and create a more stable environment for its ambitious domestic reforms. While challenges remain, the early successes in mending relations with Iran, Qatar, and Yemen offer hope that Saudi Arabia’s new foreign policy could contribute to lasting peace and stability in the region.
