The North East region is the easternmost part of India, with eight states. It is home to over 140 insurgent organizations with various demands, including total independence from India and a few for political and ethnic rights. Different counterinsurgency measures have been used in the Northeast over the years, and the last two to three years have shown signs of effectiveness. The Armed Forces Special Power Act (AFSPA), which was enacted in North East states to combat insurgencies, has been completely repealed in Assam and Tripura. In Manipur, the act has been removed from 19 police stations covering 7 districts. However, the recent conflict in Manipur witnessed a notable increase in the insurgency in the region, especially the Manipur rebel groups. For Instance from the reports of The Print’, Arambam Tengol, a radical Meitei group who had only 7,000 people till March 2023, has a strength of 50,000 now; United National Liberation Front(UNLF) saw a growth of 200 plus; People’s Liberation Army (PLA) saw a growth of 200 plus; Kangleipak Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL) saw a growth of 100 plus; Kagleipak Communist Party (KCP) saw a growth of 50 plus; and other hill based groups has also seen its significant growth.
Understanding Counter Insurgency Measures in North East
The Government of India has been making efforts to counter insurgency in North East India. Some of the efforts are: The deployment of paramilitary forces like the Assam Rifles and coordination with Local police forces with employment of the Armed Force Special Power Act (AFSPA), where the act gives special power to the forces “to search and arrest without a warrant to maintain law and order” acts as one measure to counter-insurgency. However, the act has been highly debated due to the infringement of fundamental rights like Articles 14, 20, 21, and 22.
The other counter-insurgency measure deployed is the initiation of dialogues, also called peace talks between New Delhi and Various rebel groups. For Instance, there was a tripartite talk agreement between New Delhi, the Assam government, and Eight Adivasi insurgent groups where as many as 1,182 outfits surrendered. Other such examples of peace talks to counter Insurgencies are the ongoing peace process with the Naga Socialist Council of Nagaland- Isak Muivah Faction and the Government of India.
Further, Policies like the Act-East Policy (AEP) deployed as one method to counter Insurgency, with the provisions of coordination for information and military operations between India and Myanmar.
Increasing Cross-Border Arm and drug trafficking
North East India shares International boundaries with four countries. Myanmar in the East, Bangladesh in the South-West, Nepal in the West, and Bhutan in the North-West. These border areas, especially the Indo-Myanmar border, have been linked to illegal business, including the trafficking of arms. The ongoing conflict in Manipur has been one of the major factors in increasing arms trafficking with the use of highly sophisticated weapons like Missiles, Rocket-Propelled grenades (RPG), and Drone bombings. Recent reports suggest that the guns are shipped to Manipur from the illicit markets located close to the border between China and Myanmar. The growing usage of these weapons fuels insurgent groups, helping them grow.
The Major increase in drug flow from Myanmar to India, Moreh, a small town in Manipur, serves as one of the main hubs where this illicit flow of drugs happens. The interlinkage of this illicit drug trafficking with the insurgent groups is a major threat to national security. This provides revenue for the insurgent groups to fund their activities. These further complicate the counter-insurgency measures in the region.
Myanmar turmoil and Chinese involvement
Myanmar, since the 1990s, apart from its cooperation in the ‘Act East Policy’ (AEP), has engaged with India in various military cooperation and joint endeavors for peace and development in border areas. This cooperation also complies with the issue of exchanging information to counter insurgency in the Indo-Myanmar border. However, with the turmoil and the rebel against the military Junta in Myanmar by the different insurgent groups particularly the three brotherhood alliances (The Arakan Army, The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army), also known as Operation 1027, the Indian government’s decision to fence the 1624Km long Indo-Myanmar border and the removal of the Free Movement Regime (FMR) keeps the cooperation on countering insurgency at the fray.
On the other hand, the Chinese and North East India Insurgent groups are conceived by different scholars to have historical links. The instance of the establishment of the Naga Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) with the aim to establish a ‘Greater Nagaland’ based on Mao Tse Tung’s ideology. This historical link with the increased Chinese presence in Myanmar and the supply of major arms consignments from the Kunming province of China via Myanmar using the Kachin rebels of Myanmar. Thus, New Delhi’s failure to curtail this supply of arms from China, not only to the NSCN-IM group but also to other rebel groups like the People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK) and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) highlights the failure of India’s Counter Insurgency intelligence.
Social Insecurity in Manipur
The ongoing Ethnic conflicts have been plaguing the state of Manipur in Northeastern India since May 2024. Resulting in 60,000 displaced people and more than 226 deaths. As a result, people are experiencing social insecurity due to growing economic hardship, rising unemployment, and challenges finding a means of subsistence. Ethnic conflict has also aided in the insurgent organizations’ recruitment efforts by taking advantage of instability and nationalist sentiment. As a result, the youth are subjected to a variety of hardships and frequently have to use weapons to defend their own community. Has resorted to joining the insurgency to provide their family and community with security and a chance to survive. And frequently backed by the public at large, as well as family members. The intricacy of this chaotic warfare context makes counterinsurgency measures difficult, and situational awareness is crucial to the success of any counterinsurgency campaign.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, counterinsurgency efforts in North East India have seen pocket success, especially in states like Tripura and Assam. The ongoing conflict in Manipur has unraveled the growth of Insurgency again. The repealing of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) in some areas reflects optimism; however, the growth of Insurgent groups in Manipur due to conflict exposed the fragility of Counter Insurgency Measures. This is contributed by cross-border arms trafficking, Social Insecurity, and historical links with China.
Addressing the underlying causes of ethnic conflict, enhancing governance, and encouraging collaboration between the populace and those carrying out counterinsurgency operations are essential for achieving long-term peace in the area. The Manipur conflict highlights the necessity of adopting methods that surpass military measures and prioritize political inclusivity to guarantee enduring stability in the North Eastern region.
