The priorities of Iran’s new president-elect, Mr. Masood Pezeshkian, to revive the nuclear deal look promising. Pezeshkian is expected to appoint Jawad Zarif, a seasoned diplomat and a former foreign minister of Iran under President Rouhani. Zarif played a pivotal role in concluding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with P5+1. The success of this nuclear deal is dependent on various factors, some internal and some external. Pezeshkian would face fierce opposition from the conservative-dominated parliament, which is in no mood to revive the nuclear deal. Iran’s powerful and strong security establishment under the command of supreme leader Sayed Ali Khamenei. Lastly, if Donald Trump is elected to office again, it could prove to be a deal breaker. The question mark is not of intent but his capability; he may want to revive the deal, but will he be able to conclude it?
Masood Pezeshkian is a heart surgeon by profession and has previously held the Ministry of Health under the government of former reformist president Muhammad Reza Khatami (1997-2005). Pezeshkian has also served as a medic on the battlefronts of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988). He was the only reformist candidate among six others approved by the guardian council to run for the presidency. The run-off polling round was held between Saeed Jalili and Masood Pezeshkian on July 5th to decide the popular vote of 50 percent plus one.
The Iranian nuclear deal remains at the heart of the discussion in international media after the snap presidential elections in Iran. Pezeshkian has yet to receive any congratulatory message from the Western leaders. The only exception is the European Union’s foreign affairs and security policy spokesperson, Nabila Massrali, who tweeted, “We are ready to engage with the new government in line with EU policy of critical engagement.” The Whitehouse spokesperson, John Kirby, when asked whether the Pezeshkian election will change the U.S. negotiation position on the nuclear deal. He replied, “No, We’ll see what this guy wants to get done, but we are not expecting any changes in Iranian behavior.” American elections are due in November this year, and due to the ongoing war between Hamas and Israel, and Russia-Ukraine war, and the alleged role of Iran in both of these conflicts. One could not expect a major policy shift in the U.S. towards Iran until the election of the new president. Experts in the West believe that Western leaders need to reciprocate and should engage Iran on the nuclear issue.
Pezeshkian, in his public rallies and addresses, has repeatedly used the Persian jargon “Iran Qafas Nist.” Iran is not a jail. The connotation of this term is that Iran is not a prison to always remain under sanctions and isolation. “Pezeshkian campaign focused on the need to engage with the West, including on the nuclear issue, to get sanctions relief and improve the country’s economic conditions, as well as to move away from the brink of regional war.” Pezeshkian was among those few individuals who opposed and criticized the government’s approach towards protestors in the aftermath of the death of Mahsa Amini under detention.
The Iranian nuclear deal was signed between Iran and P5+1 in Vienna in 2015. Under this deal, Iran had to stop the uranium enrichment to weapon-grade level and dismantle much of its nuclear weapon program, allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor its nuclear facilities; in return, Iran would get relief from the sanctions imposed by the U.S. The cut-off date of this deal was 2030. Donald Trump, the Former U.S. president, backed out of the agreement in 2018 unilaterally and reinstated sanctions against Iran. Trump said, in justifying his decision, “We cannot prevent an Iranian bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement. Therefore, I am announcing today that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.” Since then, Iran has increased the enrichment of Uranium to weapons-grade material.
IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi claimed that Iran has enriched its uranium up to 60 percent and has enough fissile material to build a nuclear bomb. The Saudi crown prince, in an interview with a Fox News correspondent, said, “Should Iran ever obtain such a weapon, Saudi Arabia would “have to get one, for security reasons, for balancing power.” These overt threats of nuclearization in the Middle East are the result of the short-sighted decision of Trump to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran.
Moreover, the U.S. presidential elections are due in November this year, and Donald Trump, who pulled out of the nuclear deal, is again contesting. According to the pre-poll surveys and public sentiment in the U.S., the chances of Trump winning the elections are very much on the horizon. The election of Trump to the Presidency of the U.S. would be a challenge for the upcoming reformist government that is seeking negotiations with the West on the nuclear deal.
The new president-elect of Iran is assumed to take office within 30 days as a constitutional obligation. Due to multiple factors, Iran’s new president would have to carefully calibrate his policy of openness to the West. During his tenure as foreign minister, Jawad Zarif had problems with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Core (IRGC). In a leaked phone recording in April 2021, Jawad Zarif was heard complaining about IRGC Quds Force commander Qasim Soliemani harming the JCPOA nuclear agreement with the P5+1. He also said that IRGC conducts its foreign policy in parallel with the government.
The foremost challenge is the security establishment in Iran, which is directly under the control of Supreme Leader Sayed Ali Khamenei and its widespread network of proxies in the Middle East. The new president’s first task would be to convince the supreme leader to revive negotiations with the West. The second task would be to absorb the pressure of conservative opposition within the Iranian Majlis (Parliament). Subsequently, if Donald Trump is elected to office again, he is expected to be reluctant or may outrightly reject the proposal for the Iranian nuclear deal. The responsibility for this task lies with Western European countries such as Britain, France, Germany, and Italy. Other powers, such as China and Russia, have cordial relations with Iran, but their relations with the U.S. have deteriorated. The Western European powers can only bridge the trust deficit between the establishment of Iran and the U.S. The responsibility of that deal lies both on Iran and the Western powers; as the saying goes, “It takes two to tango.”
