The UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Australia PM Anthony Albanese and American President Joe Biden met at San Diego Naval Centre on March 12, 2023 to further discuss the defence pact that involved nuclear submarine deal with Australia. The leaders announced after the talks that Australia will acquire conventionally armed, nuclear powered submarine.
AUKUS is a strategic agreement between the US, UK and Australia to deepen trilateral cooperation on defence and security capabilities announced on September 15, 2021. Initially this agreement aimed to build nuclear-powered submarines deliver to Australia, then extended to be part of the United States’ integrated deterrence approach, which seeks to deter potential adversaries through a combination of diplomatic, economic, and military tools. The integrated deterrence approach emphasizes the need for closer cooperation with allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China’s growing military and economic influence. In this regard, the US is first time going to share its nuclear power technology with its ally Australia apart from UK.
Integrated Deterrence approach is adopted by the US in its National Defence Strategy released in October, 2022. Integrated deterrence seeks to integrate all tools of national power across domains, geography, and spectrum of conflict, while working with allies and partners. Moreover, the US National Security Strategy and National Defence Strategy defined China as a long term threat to the US, while Russia as an immediate threat and Iran as an irritant. The US is going to integrate the capabilities of allies in countering the competitors that is going to be an actual asymmetric advantage for the US over its competitors.
The AUKUS partnership is designed to enhance the defense capabilities of Australia, particularly in the area of undersea warfare, with a key focus to deter China. By providing Australia with advanced nuclear-powered submarines, the partnership aims to increase Australia’s ability to deter potential adversaries in the region. The AUKUS partnership also involves sharing advanced military technology, including artificial intelligence and cyber capabilities, which will enhance the ability of the US and its partners to respond to emerging security threats in the region.
The announcement of the AUKUS partnership has drawn reactions from other countries, particularly China and France. China has criticized the partnership as a provocative move that will escalate tensions in the region, and called it “a blatant act of nuclear proliferation” that undermines regional peace and stability. While France has expressed disappointment and anger over Australia’s decision to cancel 66 billion dollar submarine contract with France in favor of the AUKUS partnership.
AUKUS deal also has implications for the Non-Nuclear Proliferation regime. One of the key principles of the NPT is that non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS) agree not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons in exchange for access to peaceful nuclear technology. The transfer of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia raises concerns about the potential for nuclear weapons proliferation, as the technology used in nuclear-powered submarines could be used to develop nuclear weapons.
Some NPT states have expressed concern that the AUKUS deal could set a precedent for other countries to acquire nuclear-powered submarines or develop nuclear weapons outside of the NPT framework. Nuclear-powered submarines are different from nuclear-armed ones, but they are predicated on the military use of nuclear power. Such a move will bear serious negative implications for nuclear proliferation, damaging the NPT regime. It is so because Japan, South Korea, and other countries in the region can bid for nuclear-powered submarines. The AUKUS deal under the auspice of integrated deterrence is going to have negative consequences on Indian Ocean, it is going to not only militarized but nuclearized the Indian Ocean.
To counter the growing influence of China, India has deepen its defence cooperation with other countries in the region, such as Japan, Australia, and the US under the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue which also serves integrated deterrence approach of the west. The AUKUS partnership could potentially have implications for India’s strategic interests in the region, particularly if it leads to increased tensions between the US and China. India may also be interested in acquiring advanced military technology such as nuclear powered submarine that could be made available as part of the partnership. It will initiate an arm race in South Asia endangering the already volatile strategic stability of the region.
