China employs a dual defense strategy focused on securing energy routes and protecting economic interests. In the Middle East, it strengthens its presence through strategic partnerships, drone sales, and security diplomacy, while in Asia, it deploys the world’s largest navy to deter rivals and expand its regional security alliances. Within this framework, the Egyptian researcher will focus on analyzing China’s military, defense, and security role by examining several dimensions, as follows:
– First: Analyzing China’s broader strategic and foreign policy orientation in Asia and neighboring regions
– Second: Analyzing China’s activities in the Middle East and their significance to Beijing’s broader regional and international strategy
– Third: Assessing the scope, nature, and implications of China’s engagement with Middle Eastern states, particularly in the areas of defense cooperation, military training, arms transfers, and security partnerships
– Fourth: Providing a structured, verifiable, and forward-looking assessment that integrates analytical interpretation rather than descriptive or historical narrative. Based on our current research agenda, this task seeks to better understand how China’s interactions with Middle Eastern states relate to its broader strategic position, security interests, and geopolitical position.
– First: Analyzing China’s broader strategic and foreign policy orientation in Asia and neighboring regions
China’s foreign policy strategy in Asia and neighboring regions in 2026 will be characterized by a complex approach that balances stabilizing the neighborhood with asserting sovereignty, leveraging a volatile external environment to bolster its position as a regional hegemon. This strategy is guided by the principle of a community with a shared future for mankind, championed by Chinese President Xi Jinping. China’s geopolitical strategy is based on the principle of neighborhood as strategic depth to enhance its influence in Central Asia. Here, China is working to establish a foothold in Central Asia as a direct strategic neighbor through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), aiming to secure energy supplies, contain American influence, and transport oil and gas overland to bypass the Strait of Malacca. Simultaneously, Beijing is attempting to manage its competition with India. China faces geopolitical challenges with India, particularly in the northeastern regions, where China seeks to expand its land-based influence through infrastructure projects. This has prompted India to intensify its pivot to the East strategy to counterbalance this growing influence. In addition to its efforts to safeguard its interests in the South China Sea, China pursues a dual management strategy (dialogue and pressure). While bolstering its military presence, it attempts to push ASEAN countries toward a Code of Conduct (COC) that safeguards its interests and promotes development initiatives for resources amidst regional energy crises.
China focuses on utilizing economic tools, exemplified by its Belt and Road Initiative, and its shift toward a digital and green road. By 2026, the Belt and Road Initiative had transitioned from large-scale projects to smaller, more beautiful initiatives, with a focus on renewable energy, digital technology, and smart infrastructure.
China also strives for economic integration, aiming to closely link the economies of its neighbors (Southeast and Central Asia) to its own, positioning itself as a major supplier and investor, and creating strategic economic interdependence.
Here, China’s political and diplomatic approach, based on the principle of responsible leadership, capitalizes on the West’s crises. Beijing perceives the West (led by the United States) as being in decline and leverages this to present its development model as an alternative, intensifying its diplomacy in the Global South.
In this context, China utilizes public diplomacy, soft power, and cultural exchanges, such as the 2026-2027 education program with Russia, to bolster its soft power and cultivate regional public opinion supportive of its policies. China also maintains its role as a mediator in conflicts, striving to present itself as a peace broker in Asia, as demonstrated in its efforts to resolve maritime disputes, thereby enhancing its image as a responsible and stable power.
Furthermore, Beijing focuses on security and military priorities, modernizing its military capabilities. China continues to upgrade its armed forces to ensure its regional dominance, with a particular emphasis on naval and air capabilities to assert its sovereignty in the East and South China Seas. In confronting Western alliances, China is working to dismantle Western security alliances in the surrounding Asian region, such as the Quadrilateral Coordination Agreement (Quad). This is being done through offering economic and security alternatives to neighboring countries and exerting diplomatic pressure.
Thus, we analyze China’s strategic direction in 2026, from its transition from quiet growth to strategic assertion in Asia, adopting a strategy of outreach, assertion, and mediation. This aims to shape an Asian regional order in which China’s influence is paramount.
– Second: Analyzing China’s Activities in the Middle East and Their Importance to Beijing’s Broader Regional and International Strategy
China’s activities in the Middle East are undergoing a radical strategic transformation, with Beijing shifting from the role of a silent consumer of energy to an active partner in the economy, security, and politics. By 2026, China aims to solidify its position as an alternative superpower in the region, capitalizing on the relative decline of American influence and employing sophisticated economic and diplomatic tools to secure its regional and international interests. China’s activities in the Middle East (2024-2026) are based on a multi-pronged approach, focusing on deepening economic ties while maintaining a cautious balance diplomacy. Economically, Beijing is concentrating on deepening the Belt and Road Initiative partnership through infrastructure investment. Here, Beijing is focusing on strategic ports, industrial zones, such as the (Suez Canal Economic Zone in Egypt), and Chinese (5G networks and technology), particularly those of Huawei, especially in the Gulf region and North Africa. With China’s increasing reliance on energy and its green transformation, it is actively contributing to renewable energy projects in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, in addition to securing oil and gas imports as a strategic priority.
Currently, China is pursuing a strategy of internationalizing the yuan (RMB). China is actively using the Chinese currency, the yuan, as a currency for settling oil trade, particularly with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, with Dubai becoming a major yuan clearing center. Politically and diplomatically, China employs both silent and active diplomacy, mediating conflicts. China’s role as a mediator has become prominent, most notably in the 2023 Saudi-Iranian agreement. It aspires to strengthen this role based on its Global Security Initiative, launched in 2021 and supported by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Furthermore, China’s approach of comprehensive strategic partnerships has led it to announce strategic partnerships with (14 Arab countries), closely linking its political interests to the region. With China’s focus on the China-Arab Cooperation Forum (2024-2026), which serves as the executive framework for deepening political and economic partnerships, China is also developing digital technologies. Chinese artificial intelligence companies are seeking to strengthen their presence in the region, particularly in the areas of cybersecurity and drone exports. China is pursuing a strategy of limited presence without direct intervention, focusing on cybersecurity and drone exports.
Regarding the importance of the Middle East to Beijing’s overall strategy, China considers it a crucial arena for achieving its long-term goals, such as securing energy resources. The region holds 48% of the world’s oil reserves and 38% of its gas reserves, making them essential for the continuation of China’s economic growth. As China continues its geopolitical rivalry with the United States, Beijing is leveraging the decline of American influence to present itself as a reliable and politically unconditional alternative, aiming to reduce American hegemony. With Chinese propaganda circulating among countries in the region to support the Chinese Dream, China seeks to achieve Chinese modernization by promoting domestic technology (the 15th Five-Year Plan, starting in 2026). It sees the region as a market to absorb its surplus production, coinciding with Beijing’s attempt to build a multipolar international system. Here, China uses forums such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to attract countries in the region to its vision of a new world order, independent of the West.
The most significant future challenges for China in 2026 remain. Despite its successes, China faces challenges, including a slowdown in the Chinese economy, which may limit its capacity for massive financial investment. In addition, numerous security risks and regional instability, such as the Gaza crisis and tensions in the Red Sea, threaten its infrastructure projects. China also faces the dilemma of balancing its relationships with various parties, as Beijing will have to maintain balanced relations with Iran, the Gulf states, and Israel simultaneously, a complex undertaking. Thus, we understand that by 2026, China will be more deeply involved in shaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, translating its economic activities into political influence and making it an indispensable partner in any regional arrangements, as part of a comprehensive strategy to reshape the international order.
– Third: Assessing the scope, nature, and implications of China’s engagement with Middle Eastern countries, particularly in the areas of defense cooperation, military training, arms transfers, and security partnerships
China’s engagement in the Middle East is undergoing a significant strategic shift, moving from a purely economic role to a more active, albeit pragmatic and cautious, security and military involvement (a cautious dragon strategy). This shift aims to protect its economic interests, secure energy routes, challenge American influence, and bolster its image as a reliable alternative partner. The scope and nature of Chinese engagement (2024-2026), and the importance of defense cooperation and military training with countries in the region, have evolved from limited maneuvers to regular, high-level joint military exercises, such as the Blue Sword 2025 exercises with Saudi Arabia and naval drills with Iran and Russia. There is also a focus on training military personnel (such as cooperation with Egypt) and integrating artificial intelligence into military systems. Regarding arms and technology transfer: China is focusing on selling advanced systems, such as (CH-4 and Wing Loong drones and ballistic missiles) to Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This has expanded to include technology transfer and local production, such as the agreements regarding the production of the (Wing Loong-3 system) in Saudi Arabia in 2026. In addition, China has established numerous security partnerships with countries in the region, including the signing of comprehensive strategic partnerships with several regional states. These partnerships provide a political framework for enhancing security cooperation, with a focus on cybersecurity and surveillance technology. China is also keen on investing in military and civilian infrastructure, such as massive investments in ports like (Khalifa Port in the UAE and Duqm Port in Oman), which can be used for military purposes. This raises concerns, primarily in the West and the United States.
As for the repercussions of this Chinese intelligence and military activity on the Middle East, especially with the growing Chinese influence and military activity in the region between 2024 and 2026, these repercussions lie in diversifying China’s arms sources by leveraging Chinese technology, particularly in light of Western and American export restrictions (on drones), and in localizing Chinese defense industries in the Middle East and the Gulf, which aligns with regional visions such as (Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030). This is in addition to Chinese political maneuvering and using the relationship with China as leverage to pressure the United States for better terms in arms deals, without seeking to completely replace the American security umbrella.
As for the impact on the United States and the West, we see an erosion of American influence in the region, especially after the Iran-Iraq War, as the Chinese presence now represents an indirect challenge to American security policy in the region. Furthermore, there are numerous intelligence risks, as the use of Chinese technology, such as communications systems, could compromise the confidentiality of security information shared with the West. Here, China is working to protect its economic interests in the region by securing oil and gas supplies and ensuring the security of investments within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. China also seeks to enhance its smart power by integrating economic, diplomatic, and military tools to achieve long-term geopolitical influence.
However, on the other hand, China faces numerous constraints and challenges. Despite this expansion, China’s involvement remains subject to clear limitations, including its reluctance to assume full security responsibility. Beijing still relies on the American presence to ensure the stability of maritime routes, such as defense against Houthi attacks. Given American superiority, US weapons remain the preferred choice and the backbone of Gulf states defenses, with Chinese exports representing only a small percentage (approximately 1.2% between 2020 and 2024) compared to their American counterparts. Here, China attempts to play a role of delicate balancing, trying to avoid direct involvement in regional conflicts, such as the balancing act between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and between Israel and the Arab states. Thus, we find that China’s participation in the security, military, and defense systems of the countries of the region and the Middle East is a gradual and deliberate entry process or the (Wary Dragon).
It seeks to enhance its influence through defense cooperation and arms transfers, which is changing the rules of the security game in the region, but it has not yet reached the stage of a military alliance to replace Washington.
– Fourth: To provide a structured, verifiable, and forward-looking assessment that integrates analytical interpretation rather than descriptive or historical narrative. Based on our current research agenda, this task seeks to better understand how China’s interactions with Middle Eastern states are linked to its broader strategic position, security interests, and geopolitical standing.
Based on the current research agenda and data up to May 2026, this report offers a forward-looking analysis of China’s interactions in the Middle East, linking them to its strategic position, security interests, and geopolitical location. The analytical assessment, based on the drivers of China’s strategy (2026-2030), reveals that China is shifting from an economic partner model to a strategic mediator in the Middle East. This shift is not aimed at replacing the United States as the sole security guarantor, but rather at establishing a multilateral regional order that serves its interests. This is being achieved through several mechanisms and strategies, most notably: (the strategy of quiet containment and balancing) or the (Realist Hedging). Here, Beijing adopts a cautious policy to avoid direct involvement in security conflicts, such as those in the Middle East, while maximizing its influence through economic diplomacy (the Belt and Road Initiative) and technology. With Beijing’s attempt to maximize its security strategy through (Development-driven Security), China, aiming to align its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) with the visions of Middle Eastern countries, relies on the principle that economic stability is the foundation of security. This is coupled with China’s strategy of integrating technology as a geopolitical resource, where it seeks to consolidate its influence through its digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and clean energy, creating long-term technological interdependencies, such as those related to 5G networks (5G) from Huawei and renewable energy projects, thereby weakening American and Western influence. With China’s emphasis on choosing a strategy of alignment with strategic and geopolitical interests to maintain energy security (the main driver), and with China’s continued reliance on Middle Eastern oil and gas, its interests revolve around securing shipping lanes (the Strait of Hormuz) and competing with superpowers (the United States). Hence, China exploits regional doubts about American commitment, presenting itself as a neutral alternative that does not interfere in political affairs, using the Global Security Initiative (GSI) as a framework.
With Chinese propaganda promoting a leadership strategy in the Global South, China seeks to strengthen its position through the (BRICS group and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation SCO) as tools to establish a multipolar world order and enhance its role as an honest broker.
As China looks to the future (2026 and beyond), through the escalation of cooperation in Seattle, it is expected that 2026 will witness a deepening of trust through the second China-Arab States Summit. The strategy emphasizes mutual cooperation and focuses on regional security through political dialogue rather than military alliances. China is pursuing a policy of cautious balancing, continuing to build comprehensive strategic partnerships with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE without siding with any one party against another, thus ensuring the continued flow of energy. Furthermore, China is expected to increase its diplomatic presence, such as its five Middle East peace initiatives, to address regional hotspots, utilizing high-level diplomacy to enhance its influence.
From this perspective, we can anticipate several potential future Chinese trends aimed at achieving independence from the Western model in the region. This can be achieved by analyzing all Chinese interactions and actions, which underscore a commitment to non-interference and a rejection of Western unilateral sanctions. This stance is well-received by countries in the region, with China prioritizing economic partnerships. For example, China’s Belt and Road Initiative aligns with (Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030), which serves as the primary driver of partnerships, rather than military alliances. Traditionally, Beijing attempts to manage crises through diplomacy, relying on special envoys and high-level phone calls to de-escalate tensions, such as the (Iran-Saudi Arabia crisis or the shipping embargo), among others.
Accordingly, we understand that China is pursuing a dual defense strategy: assertive and dominant in Asia, while relying on diplomacy, strategic partnerships, and arms deals in the Middle East. Beijing aims to secure its vital economic interests, protect shipping lanes, and limit American influence in both regions.
