America has engaged in yet another war in the Middle East through Operation Epic Fury, which began with the airstrikes on Iran on February 28 of this year. After the uncomfortable experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan, America tried to extricate itself from the Middle East and focused heavily on its Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS). But this Iran war is tying America to the Middle East again and creating a direct challenge to the successful implementation of its IPS.
America’s IPS is a long-term strategy to maintain its influence in the Indo-Pacific region and ensure a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.” In 2022, the Biden administration released a detailed outline of this strategy, which remains a key focus of the country’s national security and defense strategy in 2025-26. America’s National Security Strategy (NSS) 2025 positions the IPS as a defining arena for national security.
After the end of the Cold War in the early 90s, America emerged as the only superpower in global politics. When a state becomes a superpower, it always tries to maintain its hegemony. That’s what America is also trying, and its IPS is a part of it. After enjoying an uncomfortable experience in the Middle East, America shifted its focus to the Indo-Pacific region. There are many strategic calculations behind this, because the region is the living place for half the world’s people. Almost two-thirds of the global economy lies in the region, and it is central to global industries, including manufacturing, technology, finance, energy, agriculture, fishing, and tourism. By 2040, less than two decades from now, the region will be responsible for more than half of the global economy. By 2030, it will be the living place for two-thirds of the global middle class, having lifted millions out of poverty through economic growth. Therefore, the successful implementation of the IPS is much needed for America to maintain its global hegemony.
But America’s re-initiation of war in the Middle East is posing a challenge to the future of its IPS. Because of this war, America once again has to focus completely on the Middle East. This means that although the IPS is the first priority on paper, in reality it is currently at war with Iran. A large part of America’s military resources have been spent in this war. Several American air bases in the Middle East have been damaged by Iranian missiles during the war. As a result, the defense systems deployed in Europe, such as Patriot and THAAD missile batteries, have already had to be brought to the Middle East and deployed. Many of them are already affected. According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in the past seven weeks of war, America’s military has used up at least 45% of its precision strike missiles, half of its THAAD ballistic missile defense missiles, and nearly 50% of its Patriot air defense missiles. If this war drags on, America may also have to shift its defense systems deployed in the Indo-Pacific region to the Middle East. And if America has to do this, it will be a challenge for its effective military presence in the region and will definitely create difficulties for its IPS. Because without an effective strategic military presence, it is not possible to hold hegemony in the region for America.
Due to the Iran war, many countries in the Indo-Pacific region are directly suffering huge economic losses. For the war, Iran has stopped shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, there has been a severe energy crisis in various countries in the Indo-Pacific region. Because the Strait of Hormuz is the lifeline of the energy supply of this region, around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade is carried out through the strait. In addition, significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertilizers are also carried out through the strait across the region. Due to the closure of this strait for more than a month, oil prices have increased, and LNG supply has been disrupted. As a result, an energy crisis has been created across the region. Due to the energy crisis, terrible economic pressure has been created in many countries of the Indo-Pacific region. The COVID pandemic and the Ukraine war have already put the region’s economy in a difficult position. This war has added a new dimension to it. This is directly affecting the economic stability of the Indo-Pacific region, which is the basis of America’s IPS.
This war is giving a strategic advantage to China, America’s main rival in the Indo-Pacific region. One of the main goals of America’s IPS is to prevent China’s growing rise in the Indo-Pacific region, as only China is capable of challenging America’s hegemony in this region. But the more America keeps itself busy in the Middle East war, the more China will have the opportunity to consolidate its position in the South China Sea and increase pressure on Taiwan. In addition, it will get more opportunity to strengthen its position by expanding its economic and diplomatic influence across the region. This can bring actual difficulties to America for its IPS.
The success of America’s IPS depends largely on the partnership of its allies. But America’s re-engagement in the Middle East war was not welcomed by many of its allies. Because this war has raised a question for America’s allies: which is still more important to America, the Middle East or the Indo-Pacific? In addition, this war is bringing suffering to America’s allies instead of bringing anything good. Thus, in this war, America is not getting the support it expected from its allies, like in the two previous Middle Eastern wars. If such a scenario continues, it can affect the strategic relationship between America and its allies. And this can create a major weakness for IPS.
Almost a month after the war began, on the 8th April, both sides agreed to a two-week ceasefire and also agreed to sit for talks mediated by Pakistan. But the talks failed as both sides were unable to reach a permanent ceasefire agreement. After that, a second round of talks was initiated, but it has not yet been held, which is pushing this stalemate towards an uncertain future.
Overall, the Iran war poses a serious challenge to America’s future success in the IPS. This war is dividing America’s strategic focus, straining military resources, pressuring the Indo-Pacific region economically, creating strategic opportunities for China, and undermining the trust of allies. Most importantly, America’s return to war in the Middle East highlights a clear gap between its declared strategic priorities and its actual actions. Now, in this situation, if America can’t get out of the Iran war as soon as possible, then it can be argued that the war can undermine the success of America’s IPS.
