The Missile Saturation Theory is the core of the Chinese military strategy being implemented or proposed in the context of cooperation with Iran. It relies on a “quantity over quality” tactic to counter Western and Israeli technological superiority. The most prominent features of this theory and its application in the Iranian context lie in pursuing a path of “defensive attrition.” This theory depends on launching a massive and intense barrage of missiles (ballistic and cruise) and drones simultaneously from multiple directions. The goal is to overwhelm the interception capacity of defense systems, such as Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Patriot, as these systems possess a limited number of interceptor missiles and a limited ability to handle simultaneous attacks.
Missile saturation, as the nature of the Chinese tactic employed in Iran, lies in radar overload, meaning the use of inexpensive drones to “constrain radars and deplete valuable interceptor missile stockpiles,” thus creating gaps for larger, more precise missiles. This is coupled with a strategy of simultaneous attacks: coordinating missiles launched from land, sea, and submarine platforms to ensure they reach their targets simultaneously from different angles. China capitalizes on this by employing a strategy of asymmetric cost: an interceptor missile, such as the Tamir or Arrow, costs millions of dollars, while a saturation missile or drone might cost only a few thousand, resulting in significant economic strain on American and Israeli defenses.
China employs this theory within its strategy of “preventing or blocking access” to American and Israeli missiles in Iran, aiming to cripple naval fleets, particularly American aircraft carriers, in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. From a Chinese military perspective, this serves to neutralize American military bases in the region by threatening widespread and potentially irreversible destruction. Intelligence, military, defense, and security circles in Beijing view Iran and a potential war against it as a “laboratory” to test the effectiveness of this theory against Western military technology. If Iran succeeds in overwhelming Israeli or American defenses, it will demonstrate the effectiveness of the Chinese strategy, which Beijing intends to employ in a potential conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea. Therefore, the Chinese theory for managing a war with Iran against the US and Israel relies less on the accuracy of individual missiles and more on numerical superiority, which would statistically inevitably lead to defensive failure, a factor on which Beijing is counting.
China’s strategy in the US-Israeli conflict against Iran revolves around providing Tehran with intelligence and technology support while avoiding direct confrontation. This strategy relies on a quantitative approach (mass attacks and drone strikes) to overwhelm advanced US and Israeli defenses and on providing satellite imagery to reveal US movements and negate their stealth advantage. The core of the Chinese strategy lies in this quantitative approach to countering the qualitative approach of the US-Israeli strategy, supporting a proxy war with Iran instead of direct military intervention. China provides Iran with on-the-ground intelligence and information capabilities via its satellites, thus depriving US and Israeli forces of the element of surprise. Furthermore, China leverages this approach to overcome the element of technological superiority by adopting Iranian tactics that rely on quantity (launching massive numbers of drones and missiles) to overwhelm US and Israeli air defense networks, such as Israel’s Iron Dome system. This approach effectively prioritizes quantity over quality. Chinese technology also works to uncover “operational ambiguity,” meaning it reveals all US and Israeli military movements instead of concealing them, thus transforming the Western troop buildup from a deterrent into an Iranian advantage through monitoring.
Chinese technology also works to uncover “operational ambiguity,” meaning it reveals all US and Israeli military movements instead of concealing them, thus turning the Western troop buildup from a deterrent into an Iranian advantage through monitoring.
In the current US-Israeli conflict against Iran, China is adopting a strategy of “indirect capability,” focusing on providing Tehran with advanced intelligence and technological capabilities to bridge the military gap with the West, while taking great care to avoid direct military involvement. This Chinese military strategy relies on the following pillar: destroying the advantage of stealth. Here, Chinese intelligence-linked companies, such as MizarVision, have published high-resolution satellite images revealing the deployment locations of (US F-22 and F-35) fighter jets at bases in the region, such as the Ovda Airbase in Israel and the Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan. This action provides Iran with “free targeting data” and deprives US forces of the advantage of covert operations. With China’s adherence to the doctrine of “quantum saturation” and “saturation tactics,” it supports the development of Iranian drone capabilities by providing dual-use technical components and systems that allow for the launch of “swarms.” This tactic aims to overwhelm advanced Western air defense systems, such as the Patriot, depleting their valuable interceptor missile stockpiles and allowing ballistic missiles to penetrate defenses. China also provides Iran with comprehensive intelligence and technical support, including the presence of the advanced Chinese intelligence vessel (Liaowang-1) in the Gulf, monitoring maritime movements.
Iran has recently transitioned from using the Western and American GPS satellite navigation system to the Chinese Beidou satellite navigation system, reducing the likelihood of American jamming of its weapons guidance. Beijing views this conflict with Iran as a “real-world testing ground” to evaluate the effectiveness of Western weapons and understand the “code” of American military superiority. China gathers field data on radar performance and thermal signatures, which is crucial to its long-term strategy in other regions, such as Taiwan and the South China Sea.
There are also indications of Chinese preparations to provide technical support and missile spare parts to Iran in the ongoing conflict. This suggests a potential role for Chinese companies linked to the People’s Liberation Army in developing simultaneous “missile swarm attack tactics.” These contributions include enhancing Tehran’s ability to coordinate land-based, naval, and drone launch platforms to strike American and Israeli targets with simultaneous precision. The role of Chinese intelligence-linked companies in these simultaneous attack tactics is highlighted by their support for Iranian missile components. Intelligence reports indicate Chinese readiness to supply Iran with spare parts and precision components used in developing and upgrading ballistic and cruise missile systems. In addition to the role of Chinese military companies in enhancing the accuracy and coordination of Iranian missiles, these companies provide advanced guidance and control technologies, which facilitate “missile saturation tactics and saturation attacks.” In these attacks, missiles are launched from various platforms to arrive simultaneously from different angles.
Chinese military companies linked to intelligence and the People’s Liberation Army play a prominent role in transferring reconnaissance technology to Iran. Reports indicate Russian-Chinese cooperation in providing Iran with satellite imagery and intelligence on US troop movements, crucial for identifying suitable targets for simultaneous attacks. These Chinese companies, also linked to intelligence and the military, are guiding Iran in “drone swarm” tactics, which include assisting with technologies that enhance Tehran’s ability to coordinate drones and missiles to ensure synchronization. This is particularly relevant given previous collaborations in this area, especially in the context of simultaneous attacks. Here, Iran uses ballistic and cruise missiles as a shield and, with Chinese support, seeks to overcome advanced US and Israeli air defenses through complex, simultaneous attacks.
Based on the preceding intelligence and military analysis, the Chinese strategy here can be summarized as prolonging the conflict to deplete American and Israeli resources and distract Washington from the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions and China’s direct spheres of influence, without Beijing having to pay a heavy political or military price. Here, the Chinese military draws several lessons from this American-Israeli war against Iran, most notably the importance of self-reliance and the danger of relying solely on Western “technological superiority” without sufficient manpower to sustain a sustained fighting effort. Ultimately, China seeks to achieve its interests through indirect support of Iran while maintaining its international relations and avoiding a full-scale confrontation with the United States.
