Venezuela’s crude oil output is unlikely to see significant increases for years, despite President Trump’s promises of U.S. oil investments following Nicolas Maduro’s capture. Although Venezuela is believed to possess the world’s largest oil reserves, production has drastically decreased due to decades of mismanagement and the nationalization of oil operations in the 2000s, pushing foreign investments away.
Investors face several risks, including security issues, deteriorating infrastructure, concerns about the legality surrounding Maduro’s capture, and potential long-term political instability. Venezuela would need to reform laws to attract more foreign investment, as its oil industry was nationalized in the 1970s, leading to a forced shift to state-controlled joint ventures. Most foreign companies, including Chevron, exited the market during this transition, while a few pursued arbitration.
Chevron is seen as the primary beneficiary of a possible oil opening in Venezuela. Other U.S. entities are monitoring the political landscape and will wait for clearer operational frameworks. Spanish firm Repsol holds stakes in several Venezuelan oil fields but recently had its operating license revoked. Repsol claims Venezuela owes it €586 million ($683.63 million).
Currently, Venezuela’s economic situation is dire, marked by a severe contraction following a production decline post-2013, spiraling inflation, and escalating poverty. Although output has stabilized, low global oil prices and discounts on Venezuela’s crude have restricted revenue, complicating debt servicing. The U.S. blockade of sanctioned oil tankers further intensifies this crisis.
Trump stated that U.S. oil companies are ready to tackle the challenges of investing in Venezuela, but specific plans remain ambiguous. Presently, Chevron is the only major American oil company operating in the country. Venezuela, once producing 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s, has seen production plummet below 2 million bpd during the 2010s, averaging around 1.1 million bpd last year.
OPEC and its allies are expected to maintain their current oil output policies, pausing further production hikes early in the year. Although Chevron’s tankers have been among the few operating from Venezuela, the situation leads to concerns over U.S. refiners that could otherwise benefit from improved crude flow.
(Production: Deniz Uyar video copyright: (c) 2026 Thomson Reuters )
