U.S. President Donald Trump’s Gaza initiative, now in its second phase, aims to end the conflict by disarming Hamas, withdrawing Israeli forces, and rebuilding Gaza under international supervision. The first phase, enacted in October 2024, included a ceasefire, the release of hostages and prisoners, a partial Israeli pullback, increased aid, and the reopening of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. The plan received broad international support and a U.N. Security Council resolution authorising transitional governance and an international stabilisation force.
Current Situation on the Ground
Although large-scale fighting stopped after the ceasefire on October 10, sporadic violence continues. Gaza authorities report at least 488 Palestinians killed by Israeli fire since the ceasefire, while Israel reports four soldier deaths from militant attacks. Israeli forces maintain control over roughly 53% of Gaza, including destroyed urban areas along the borders, leaving more than 2 million residents confined to a narrow coastal strip in damaged or makeshift housing. Aid agencies report that humanitarian supplies are still restricted, and armed anti-Hamas Palestinian groups have established positions within Israeli-controlled areas.
Second Phase Challenges
The second phase envisages Hamas disarming, Israeli troops fully withdrawing, and governance of Gaza handed to a committee of Palestinian technocrats under Trump’s “Board of Peace.” However, Hamas still holds rockets and thousands of light weapons. Diplomatic sources report that the group has yet to receive concrete disarmament proposals and is negotiating to integrate its 10,000 police officers into the new administration—an option Israel opposes. Israeli officials warn that military action may resume if Hamas does not comply.
Outstanding Issues
Key elements of the plan remain unresolved, including the composition and mandate of the international stabilisation force, the Palestinian Authority’s role and reforms in Gaza, and the financing and oversight of reconstruction. Jared Kushner’s “New Gaza” vision proposes a modern rebuilt territory, but it does not clarify property rights, compensation for displaced Palestinians, or housing solutions for those uprooted by the war. The lack of detailed agreements has left both sides sceptical about the feasibility of the plan’s full implementation.
Humanitarian and Political Implications
The reopening of Rafah provides limited relief to Gaza’s population, allowing movement in and out of the enclave. Yet ongoing Israeli control, restrictions on aid, and continuing violence highlight the fragile nature of the ceasefire. Both Palestinians and Israelis remain uncertain about the future, and the lack of concrete disarmament and governance agreements leaves the risk of renewed conflict high.
Analysis
Trump’s Gaza plan illustrates the difficulties of implementing a complex, externally brokered settlement in a highly volatile environment. While the Rafah crossing reopening is a step toward normalising movement and aid, the absence of enforceable disarmament mechanisms, unresolved governance disputes, and unclear reconstruction plans suggest that the initiative may stall. Without concrete agreements and credible guarantees on security, reconstruction, and political authority, the second phase risks leaving Gaza in a prolonged state of partial conflict, with both humanitarian and strategic objectives unmet.
With information from Reuters.
