Signed in 2010 by U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, New START is the last major nuclear arms control agreement between the two countries. It limits strategic warheads to 1,550, caps deployed missiles and bombers at 700, and restricts launchers to 800. The treaty’s goal is to maintain transparency, prevent an arms race, and reduce the risk of nuclear escalation.
How Compliance Works
New START relies on short-notice, on-site inspections to verify that each side stays within the agreed limits. However, inspections were suspended in 2023 after Russia halted participation in response to U.S. support for Ukraine. Both countries now rely on intelligence assessments rather than direct verification.
Why Extension Is Complicated
The treaty can only be extended once, which happened in 2021. With its expiration on February 5, 2026, Russia has proposed an informal continuation of warhead limits, but the U.S. response is still pending. Supporters say an extension prevents an arms race; critics argue the U.S. should prepare to expand its arsenal in response to China’s growing nuclear forces.
What Happens If the Treaty Lapses?
Without New START, U.S. and Russian arsenals would be unconstrained, ending over 50 years of nuclear limits. Both sides could increase deployed missiles and warheads, though this would take months to implement. The lack of a regulatory framework could spark a new, unregulated arms race, with each side reacting to worst-case assumptions about the other’s plans.
Challenges to a Successor Treaty
A replacement agreement would be technically and politically difficult. It would likely need to cover:
- Short- and intermediate-range weapons
- New Russian systems like the Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon torpedo
- Possible participation of other nuclear powers, including China, Britain, and France
Negotiating such a treaty would take years and require complex verification mechanisms.
Analysis
The expiry of New START represents more than just a lapse in numerical limits. The treaty provides transparency, predictability, and stability, which help prevent miscalculations and arms races. Without it, nuclear risk rises significantly, especially amid global tensions over Ukraine and the Middle East. Even a temporary lapse could encourage both sides to accelerate modernization programs, creating political and security pressures that could escalate quickly. Analysts warn that the window to maintain control over long-range nuclear competition is closing fast, and the absence of a successor treaty would leave the world in uncharted territory.
With information from Reuters.
