NEWS BRIEF
A majority of Russians expect the war in Ukraine to end in 2026, according to a new poll by the state-run VTsIOM, in a potential sign the Kremlin is gauging public readiness for a negotiated settlement as diplomatic talks intensify. The poll suggests a shift in public messaging, linking optimism for the new year directly to the conflict’s conclusion, even as President Vladimir Putin maintains maximalist demands for peace.
WHAT HAPPENED
- A state-run pollster (VTsIOM) found 55% of Russians expect the “special military operation” to end in 2026, with 70% viewing the coming year as more “successful” than 2025.
- The poll explicitly tied public optimism to the war’s conclusion and the achievement of Putin’s stated goals, a shift from previous years’ focus on national consolidation.
- Independent polling indicates two-thirds of Russians now support peace talks, the highest level since the war began.
- The Kremlin confirmed Putin has been briefed on talks with U.S. envoys and will formulate Russia’s official position moving forward.
WHY IT MATTERS
- The state-backed poll likely reflects a coordinated effort to prepare the Russian public for a potential peace process, softening expectations after years of messaging around prolonged conflict.
- Linking optimism to the war’s end suggests the Kremlin recognizes growing, though muted, war fatigue and aims to channel it into support for a negotiated outcome framed as a victory.
- The data emerges alongside active back-channel diplomacy between U.S. and Russian officials, indicating Moscow may be testing domestic receptiveness to compromise.
- Putin’s recent conditions, Ukrainian cession of remaining Donbas territory and a NATO renunciation remain far from Kyiv’s position, but the poll suggests a timeline for diplomatic urgency.
IMPLICATIONS
- If 2026 becomes a tacit deadline in Russian strategic planning, it could accelerate diplomatic maneuvering in 2025, increasing pressure on Ukraine and its Western backers.
- Public expectations of an end may reduce Putin’s flexibility to escalate or prolong the war if negotiations stall, potentially creating domestic pressure for resolution.
- The focus on veteran reintegration and reconstruction in occupied territories signals early post-conflict planning, even as military operations continue.
- Divergence between state and independent polls on peace sentiment highlights the ongoing challenge of assessing true Russian public opinion under censorship.
This briefing is based on information from Reuters.
