Iraq, historically one of the Middle East’s largest wheat importers, has in recent years sought to achieve self-sufficiency by expanding domestic wheat production. Strategic investments in high-yield seeds, modern irrigation, and grain subsidies have allowed the country to build reserves capable of meeting a year’s demand. For three consecutive years, Iraq produced surpluses, reducing reliance on imports.
However, the driest year in modern history, combined with record-low water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, has put these gains at risk, threatening to slash the wheat harvest by up to 50% this season.
Water Crisis and Environmental Vulnerability
Iraq’s water crisis stems from both environmental and geopolitical factors. Rising temperatures, declining rainfall, and prolonged drought have compounded the problem, while upstream dams in Turkey and Iran have reduced the flow of rivers that supply 70% of Iraq’s water. Water reserves have plunged from 60 billion cubic metres in 2020 to less than 4 billion today, prompting the government to introduce rationing for farmers.
The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization warns that both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture across the country are severely affected, with wheat production expected to drop by 30% to 50%.
Impact on Wheat Production and Policy Response
To combat water scarcity, Iraq’s agriculture ministry has capped river-irrigated wheat at 1 million dunams half of last season’s area—and mandated modern irrigation methods such as drip and sprinkler systems to replace water-wasting flood irrigation. Desert areas using groundwater will cover 3.5 million dunams, also contingent on modern irrigation. Rice cultivation, which consumes more water, has been banned nationwide.
These measures aim to sustain production but require significant investment and infrastructure, posing economic challenges for rural farmers, many of whom have already lost livelihoods. Some 170,000 rural residents have been displaced due to water shortages.
Economic and Food Security Implications
The FAO forecasts that Iraq may need to import around 2.4 million tons of wheat in the 2025/26 marketing year, reversing the trend toward self-sufficiency. Rising import dependence could expose Iraq to price volatility and pressure government budgets, especially as global wheat markets remain oversupplied but unpredictable.
Farmers like Ma’an al-Fatlawi in Najaf have already reduced wheat acreage drastically and laid off most workers due to the lack of irrigation water. “We rely on river water,” he said, reflecting the broader vulnerability of Iraqi agriculture to environmental and geopolitical pressures.
Rural Livelihoods at Risk
Groundwater extraction, while a short-term solution, carries long-term risks. Basra aquifers have already fallen by three to five metres, and over-extraction could permanently deplete reserves. The high cost of modern irrigation infrastructure adds another layer of economic strain on rural communities that make up about 30% of Iraq’s population.
The water crisis underscores that Iraq’s struggle is not only about food security but also about sustaining livelihoods and economic stability in the face of mounting environmental challenges.
With information from Reuters.
