Sudan’s war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has entered a dangerous new phase. After seizing al-Fashir in Darfur in October one of its biggest victories the RSF has pushed east into Kordofan and captured Sudan’s largest oil field. The conflict, now in its third year, has already displaced nearly 12 million people, including over 4 million who fled to neighbouring countries.
Why It Matters
Fresh RSF advances risk triggering another mass exodus, particularly if the fighting reaches El Obeid, a major population centre. Humanitarian agencies are already severely underfunded and struggling to support those fleeing atrocities, including mass killings, sexual violence, and forced conscription. Sudan is now the world’s largest displacement crisis, but global attention and donor funding has sharply declined.
The Sudanese civilian population, especially women and children, remain the primary victims, often trekking hundreds of kilometres to safety under threat from militias.
UNHCR and aid organisations are operating with limited resources and warn they are “barely responding” to needs.
Neighbouring states such as Chad and South Sudan, already overwhelmed, may face another influx of refugees if violence escalates.
The Sudanese army and RSF continue to fight for control, with civilians trapped in between.
What’s Next
If El Obeid or other major towns are engulfed in fighting, UNHCR anticipates a new surge of refugees crossing borders. Aid agencies are preparing but warn capacity is stretched. Political uncertainty also looms as Filippo Grandi’s term as UNHCR chief ends this month, with no successor named yet potentially complicating continuity in crisis leadership.
With information from Reuters.
