When people talk about Pakistan’s trade partners, Vietnam usually doesn’t make the list. China, the Gulf, maybe the US or the UK, those are the usual suspects. But in the past few years, Pakistan and Vietnam have been quietly building a relationship that’s now starting to look serious. Trade between them touched $850 million in 2024, and if things go as expected, it’ll pass the $1 billion mark next year. That’s not earth-shattering compared to the big players, but it does say something about where both countries want to head.
What makes it interesting is that Pakistan and Vietnam don’t have much shared history. They’re not neighbours, there’s no common language, no cultural overlaps you can point to. It’s just about economics. Vietnam has become one of Asia’s export machines, shipping nearly $520 billion worth of goods around the world last year, while Pakistan is stuck trying to break out of its cycle of relying on a few traditional exports. The idea of a Preferential Trade Agreement in 2025 shows both sides want to formalize this relationship and maybe even aim for a Free Trade Agreement down the line. That’s a big leap of faith, but it signals intent.
The Lahore Chamber of Commerce is even bolder. They’ve thrown out a $5 billion trade target, which feels ambitious, maybe even unrealistic, but not impossible if the groundwork is right. Right now, Pakistan is selling Vietnam corn, cotton fabrics, yarn, and leather. Vietnam’s sending electronics, rubber, yarn, and tea products the other way. It’s a familiar pattern: Pakistan deals in agriculture and textiles while importing higher-value goods. The risk here is obvious, Pakistan keeps itself locked into low-value exports while buying back expensive stuff.
That’s why the push for diversification is worth listening to. The Chamber keeps stressing seafood, meat, fruits, IT, and pharmaceuticals. These are areas Pakistan has talked about for years but hasn’t fully capitalized on. For example, Pakistan has a big halal meat industry, but getting consistent access to new markets like Vietnam takes investment in quality standards, certifications, and marketing. It’s not just about finding buyers; it’s about convincing them you can deliver at the same level every time. If Pakistan can get that right, then maybe the $5 billion dream won’t seem like a fantasy.
Vietnam, for its part, doesn’t really need Pakistan the way Pakistan needs Vietnam. They already have strong global trade networks. But Pakistan could be useful as a gateway to South Asia and even into Central Asia. And from Pakistan’s point of view, Vietnam is a ticket into ASEAN, one of the most dynamic trade blocs in the world. So, while the numbers might look small compared to Vietnam’s total trade, the strategic value is bigger than it seems.
Still, trade agreements are one thing, using them is another. Pakistan has a poor track record here. Look at the Free Trade Agreement with China: the opportunities were there, but exports never grew the way they were supposed to. Part of it is competitiveness, part of it is that the government and business community often don’t invest in market intelligence. That’s why the call for regular information-sharing isn’t just boring policy-speak, it matters. Without proper data on what people want to buy in Vietnam, Pakistani exporters will keep making the same missteps.
There’s also the balance issue. Imports from Vietnam hit $374 million last year, and that’s only going to increase. Pakistan’s challenge is to stop the trade deficit from widening. That means its exports need to move up in both volume and value. But that requires better productivity, more investment in processing, and consistency in supply. Without those, tariff cuts won’t make much difference.
What gets less attention but could be just as important are the softer links. People-to-people connections, tourism, education, these things help sustain economic partnerships over the long term. Vietnam is already a recognized tourist hotspot, while Pakistan is still trying to figure out how to brand itself that way. Cooperation in IT and tourism could make the relationship feel less transactional and more like a genuine partnership.
The big question is whether this PTA will be another flashy announcement that never really materializes or whether it will mark a turning point. Given the record highs in trade, the discussions about ASEAN, and the pressure from business groups, there’s a real chance this could lead somewhere. But Pakistan especially needs to be disciplined. Signing agreements is the easy part. Following through with reforms in logistics, banking, and export financing is where the real work lies.
From Vietnam’s perspective, this isn’t life or death. They have plenty of partners. For them, Pakistan is more like an experiment. That means Pakistan must make the case that it brings something unique to the table, not just another plea for market access.
If you zoom out, this isn’t just about Pakistan and Vietnam. It’s about how medium-sized economies in Asia are starting to connect more directly with each other, instead of always relying on ties to China, the US, or Europe. It’s a way to spread risk and build resilience in a shaky global economy.
So yes, crossing $1 billion in trade next year will make for a nice headline, but the real story will be what happens after that. Will this grow into a balanced, sustainable relationship, or will it stall out like so many other trade deals Pakistan has signed? That depends on whether both sides can move past the announcements and deliver. If they do, then maybe $5 billion isn’t such a wild idea after all. If they don’t, it’ll just be another missed chance, something Pakistan can’t afford too many more of.
