Authors: Simran Walia & Shashank Khandwe*
Japan’s domestic political climate appears to be in a loop of instability, as the country enters its fourth Prime Ministerial contention within the past five years. The post-Abe pattern of short-lived terms continues as PM Ishiba resigned on 7th September from his position, just eleven months into power. Japan’s past experiences of short-lived leadership stints displayed the demerits that the country faced in foreign policy when political coherence at home was fragile. The governments either failed to achieve factional consensus on issues associated with the US alliance (LDP governments 2006-2009) or lost the initial excitement with numerous political misjudgements or strategic matters (for example, the US force relocation issue during the Hatoyama administration or the Fukushima Daiichi responses during the Noda administration).
The current political situation comes after an eight-year stable and decisive Abe administration. Abe’s political stability at home brought coherence in his foreign policy, and he aimed to reposition the country with a ‘proactive’ approach to regional and global issues. His aspirations for India-Japan relations were apparent due to the strong personal interactions he developed with his Indian counterparts. Supplementary to this was his vision for the regional order, as the Indo-Pacific construct was laid out in his iconic ‘Confluence of the two Seas’ address to the Indian parliament. His approach left a lasting impression on the bilateral ties and forged a formula that his successors appeared to practise through their individual engagements with India (e.g., PM Kishida’s New Plan for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, together with India, as an indispensable partner – New Delhi, 2023).
Despite its short stint, Shigeru Ishiba’s premiership attempted to follow this trajectory as well. Only a week before his resignation, Ishiba met PM Modi during the 15th India-Japan Annual Summit, and laid out the ambitious vision to strengthen the Special Strategic and Global Partnership. As part of this, Japan pledged to double its investment in India to JPY 10 trillion (approximately ₹5.94 lakh crore) over the next decade, enhancing bilateral trade under the existing India-Japan Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CEPA) framework. The two countries also agreed on an Action Plan to facilitate the exchange of over 500,000 personnel over five years, enhance language and training programs, promote tourism, and deepen cultural connections. A change in leadership might affect the execution of these initiatives, especially those that hold any domestic political implications, for example, the proposed human resource exchange program or defense cooperation.
Amongst the key candidates for the LDP presidential race scheduled for October 4th, front-runners include the former minister for economic security, Sanae Takaechi, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi. The other two candidates are former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi and former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi. Despite the LDP running a minority coalition (with Komeito) since the elections last year, one of these leaders would still most likely succeed Ishiba as the next prime minister, as the LDP continues to hold the highest seats in the lower house of the parliament. With the support of the opposition groups to pass key legislation, victory in the LDP presidential elections would lead to a run-up to the country’s leadership. While Japan’s overall bureaucracy-dominated policy structure ensures certain continuities, the individual policy perception of the key contenders would affect the future course of approach in many domains of engagement, bilateral interactions being one of them. For key partners like India, domestic political shifts in Japan hold significant implications for bilateral engagement.
Amongst the contenders for the Japanese premiership, Sanae Takaechi stands out as the sole female candidate, representing the conservative Abe faction. Her strong stance on policy matters, from Japan’s proactive defence posture, like explicit recognition of Self-Defence Forces (SDF) and appropriating the Yasukuni shrine visit of the leadership, has made her stand out in the LDP presidential race. Perceived as a ‘China-hawk’, she locates India as a critical element in the policy shift necessary for Japan towards security diversification measures in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. These attempts to diversify its security interests would be vital for Japan even as Trump increasingly pressurises allies in the Pacific with security burden-sharing and economic tariff regimes. In her previous stints as the minister in charge of science and technology (& space), and economic security, she oversaw key developments with India, including exchanges on semiconductors and critical mineral explorations. In short, her tenure would possibly continue Abe’s foreign policy legacy, with India holding a crucial position.
Meanwhile, Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, represents a more liberal faction of the LDP with progressive opinions on issues like same-sex marriage in Japan. Junichiro Koizumi’s term as Prime Minister proved fruitful for relations with India, where he visited in 2005 and elevated the bilateral ties to a ‘global partnership.’ ODA loan increment and ‘eight-fold initiative’ of Asian engagement became a symbolic development of strengthening bilateral relations, along with joint ambitions to boost the G4 grouping for the UN Security Council reforms. His legacy would inspire his son, Shinjiro Koizumi, to address issues that resonate with the youth in Japan and eventually India. On the other hand, Yoshimasa Hayashi’s long experience in cabinet, culminating as the Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan, brings in a middle course of action that would address the country’s key economic and defense concerns. For India, his stint as the foreign minister (2021-23) proved beneficial, coinciding with the G20 presidency with Japan’s G7 presidency in 2023. Hayashi positions India centrally in Japan’s future Indo-Pacific perspective, with a natural continuity to the FOIP vision. His victory in the upcoming elections would promise continuity in this vision and elevate India-Japan ties amidst the strategic changes in the Indo-Pacific.
The stakes in the upcoming elections are immense for Japan. Ishiba’s exit has dimmed prospects for reform within the LDP. If the new leader cannot restore public trust, the party may become a casualty of its own prolonged dominance. The future strength of the LDP will depend not only on who succeeds Ishiba, but also on the party’s ability to persuade a sceptical public that it remains capable of genuine renewal. However, despite the political uncertainty in Japan, the core of the India-Japan strategic partnership is unlikely to collapse. The mutual strategic interests, such as responses to China’s rise, Indo-Pacific security, investments and supply chains, are strong and fit both nations’ international aspirations. Differences amongst the contenders on issues like Human Resource Exchange might affect interactions with India. For example, Takaechi’s perspective on stricter visa regulations for non-residents might affect Indians in Japan, but this position reflects the larger social churn that Japan is experiencing. Some delay or renegotiation of agreements between India and Japan is possible, as some projects might get deferred. Nevertheless, given that many have already agreed in principle, many will perhaps proceed, though with certain modifications. The new Japanese leadership will seek to show stability and continuity in relations with India, projecting reliability to national and international audiences.
*Shashank Khandwe is a PhD candidate at the Centre for Indo Pacific Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
