Thailand–Cambodia Conflict: When Strategic Trust Collapses
The Thailand–Cambodia conflict unexpectedly erupted in 2025 following a series of deadlocked diplomatic exchanges between Paetongtarn Shinawatra, former Prime Minister of Thailand, and Hun Sen, President of the Cambodian Senate and former Prime Minister of Cambodia. The tension stemmed from clashes in the border area near the Emerald Triangle—the tri-border point of Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand—which led to the death of a Cambodian soldier in May 2025. Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, Paetongtarn had proactively sought to leverage the personal ties between the Shinawatra and Hun Sen families to mediate the conflict on June 15, 2025. The two families had maintained a close relationship since former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his close associates were ousted in a coup and lived in exile in Cambodia. After being ousted in the 2006 coup, Thaksin was invited by Hun Sen in 2009 to serve as an advisor to the Cambodian government—an open display of support for the Shinawatra family. This relationship later served as a foundation for the development of bilateral ties when the Shinawatra family returned to power under Paetongtarn, Thaksin’s daughter.
However, tensions escalated when Hun Sen unexpectedly released a recording of a private phone call with Paetongtarn on June 18, 2025. The incident triggered a wave of domestic criticism against Paetongtarn, accusing her of being weak and submissive in the face of foreign pressure. Subsequently, Paetongtarn was suspended from her position as Prime Minister by the Thai court and reassigned to the role of Minister of Culture.
In June 2025, Thaksin Shinawatra publicly criticized what he described as the “unprofessional” actions of his longtime friend Hun Sen, marking a rare move that led to a serious deterioration in Thailand–Cambodia relations. Meanwhile, Hun Sen accused Thaksin of betraying the trust between their two families and committing an act of treason against Cambodia.
On July 23, 2025, a Thai soldier was reported injured by a landmine believed to have been newly planted by Cambodian forces in Ubon Ratchathani. On July 24, 2025, the conflict between the two sides officially began. Prior to that, both Thailand and Cambodia had announced the downgrading of diplomatic relations and the withdrawal of their diplomatic personnel. However, on July 28, 2025, following the proactive intervention of U.S. President Donald Trump, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to sign an unconditional ceasefire agreement in Malaysia. The conflict resulted in at least 35 fatalities and forced around 300,000 people to flee their homes.
What Lies Beneath the Thailand–Cambodia Conflict?
The Cambodia–Thailand conflict has long persisted, primarily driven by territorial disputes. However, in the current context, the confrontation between the two countries goes beyond a mere border disagreement—it also reflects strategic maneuvering by major powers, particularly China.
China has achieved significant diplomatic gains through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by President Xi Jinping. The BRI has established China’s influence in over 140 countries and territories around the world. However, Taiwan remains a thorny and unresolved issue for Beijing. Xi has repeatedly asserted that the use of force is the only viable option for reunifying Taiwan. John Noh, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, stated during a hearing before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee in April 2025 that China is preparing its military forces to be ready for a potential invasion and annexation of Taiwan by 2027. Previously, under President Joe Biden’s administration, CIA Director William J. Burns had made a similar statement, noting that China was preparing its military forces for a possible forcible reunification with Taiwan by 2027. The consistency of such warnings from U.S. officials across two consecutive administrations suggests that global events are not merely coincidental.
The Russia–Ukraine conflict, which began in 2022, remains unresolved to this day. The United States has accused China of quietly supporting Russia in order to prolong the conflict. Meanwhile, China has been discreetly investing in the Middle East, including in Israel’s science and technology sectors. In 2023, China successfully brokered a reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran—representing the Sunni and Shiite branches of Islam—ending a rivalry that had lasted for centuries. When the United States and Israel launched the “Rising Lion” military campaign against Iran in 2025, China showed little to no significant response. The prolonged conflict in Myanmar has long revealed China’s backing of various military forces within the Southeast Asian nation. In the case of the Thailand–Cambodia conflict, China likewise refrained from taking any significant action and only issued a statement after the United States announced that both sides had agreed to sign a ceasefire agreement. China’s actions—or lack thereof—raise pressing questions: Is Beijing deliberately remaining silent or even allowing regional conflicts to escalate while quietly preparing its military for the annexation of Taiwan? Could the Cambodia–Thailand conflict be part of a broader chain of geopolitical events orchestrated or exploited by China to divert global attention and test regional stability ahead of more decisive moves in the Indo-Pacific?
These events collectively suggest a possible pattern of geopolitical orchestration by China, aimed at dispersing U.S. resources and attention. The underlying objective may be to distract Washington—under Donald Trump’s leadership—from focusing on the Taiwan issue. Since taking office, Trump has inadvertently dropped the long-standing phrase, “We do not support Taiwanese independence”—a political slogan historically used by successive U.S. administrations to reaffirm their commitment to the “One China” policy while subtly reinforcing Taiwan’s position on the international stage. Upon Trump’s election, TSMC—a major player in the semiconductor industry—announced an additional investment of US$65 billion in the United States on March 4, 2025, bringing its total investment in the country to US$145 billion. TSMC’s investment in the United States is not merely an economic decision but also a strategic exchange aimed at securing the island’s safety in the face of potential future conflicts. TSMC has long been regarded as a symbol of Taiwan in the international community. This move suggests that the United States may already be taking strategic precautions in response to global developments—especially rising conflicts—by reinforcing its economic and technological ties with Taiwan as a form of geopolitical insurance.
It is evident that the events of recent years have been gradually diverting U.S. focus and resources away from Taiwan. While this strategy may not be overt, a deeper analysis reveals a consistent and deliberate pattern of actions by China—suggesting a broader geopolitical design aimed at positioning itself as a future global leader.
Conclusion
The current Thailand–Cambodia conflict is no longer merely a territorial dispute rooted in historical grievances and narrow nationalism. Instead, it reflects deeper geopolitical dynamics, with the involvement of major powers—most notably the intensifying U.S.–China rivalry that is shaping global affairs today. Under Donald Trump’s leadership, the U.S. aims to curb China’s attempts to escalate conflicts in key strategic regions. Meanwhile, China appears to be orchestrating or exploiting strategically calculated flashpoints to stretch U.S. resources and, more critically, divert Washington’s attention away from Taiwan. According to U.S. officials, this is part of Beijing’s broader plan to pave the way for the annexation of the island—potentially by 2027.
