Island Defence: Assessing Taiwan’s Military Capabilities

Since its inception, Taiwan has grappled with a range of challenges in resisting mounting pressure from China. From defence and economic concerns to sociopolitical dynamics, the island is navigating complex terrain in its efforts to push back. As part of its response, Taiwan is set to increase its defense budget to over 3% of its GDP, signaling a major military overhaul. But is this overhaul sufficient to safeguard the island against China’s military might? This article examines Taiwan’s current defense capabilities and evaluates their resilience in the face of China’s expanding military power.

Current Scenario

“At the event commemorating pro-democracy pioneer Nylon Cheng, absolute freedom of speech doesn’t call for Taiwan’s elimination,” said President Lai Ching-te.

On Wednesday, April 2, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Eastern Theater Command announced the conclusion of two days of military drills around Taiwan, pledging to maintain combat readiness and prevent any moves toward Taiwanese independence. Snr. Col. Shi Yi stated in an official release that the joint exercises—conducted between Tuesday and Wednesday—successfully completed all planned tasks and tested the integrated operational capabilities of PLA troops. The drills involved coordinated forces from the PLA Navy, Army, and Rocket Force, with units reportedly approaching Taiwan from multiple directions, according to updates posted on the Eastern Theater Command’s official WeChat account.

These military maneuvers were launched without warning, accompanied by a sharp propaganda campaign. Beijing described the exercises as a “stern warning” to Taiwan’s democratically elected leadership, whom it accused of promoting separatism. Chinese officials went as far as calling Taiwan’s leaders “separatists” and “parasites,” blaming them for allegedly driving the island toward war. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that on Tuesday, it had tracked 71 aircraft from the People’s Liberation Army, along with a minimum of 19 vessels from China’s navy and coast guard—including the aircraft carrier Shandong. More than 10 of these vessels reportedly approached Taiwan’s contiguous zone, which extends 24 nautical miles (approximately 44 kilometers) from its coast.

Following the military exercises, the Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated its firm stance on Taiwan, stating that “China’s reunification is an unstoppable trend—it will happen, and it must happen.” A statement frequently used by Chinese Communist Party Leaders.

Recurring Violations

Such escalations have become part of everyday reality for Taiwan, with China consistently exerting pressure through a mix of military maneuvers, economic coercion, cyber intrusions, and diplomatic isolation. A report from the Jamestown Foundation highlights how frequent airspace intrusions and military drills have significantly escalated regional tensions. While such incursions were relatively limited in 2020, they surged in 2021 with over 960 Chinese aircraft entering Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). The numbers continued to climb in 2022 and peaked in 2023, with 1,703 sorties crossing the Taiwan Strait median line. In 2024, this figure nearly doubled to 3,070 crossings—indicating an unprecedented level of PLA Air Force activity and suggesting China may be nearing the limits of its peacetime operational capacity unless further infrastructure and logistical expansions are undertaken.

China also employs gray zone tactics to undermine Taiwan without triggering direct military conflict. In early 2025, Taiwan reported multiple incidents involving Chinese-crewed vessels allegedly damaging undersea communication cables critical to the island’s connectivity. One such vessel, the Hongtai, was detained after severing a cable linking Taiwan to the Penghu Islands, while another, the Shunxing 39, evaded inspection after damaging a separate cable and departed for South Korea. These activities led to widespread disruptions in internet access and other essential communication services across the region. Viewed as potential acts of sabotage, the incidents have pushed Taiwan to tighten surveillance on Chinese-owned “flag of convenience” ships and ramp up maritime monitoring.

Meanwhile, China has increasingly relied on cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns as core components of its efforts to undermine stability in Taiwan. One of the most significant incidents occurred during the January 2024 presidential election, when Chinese state-backed actors launched a coordinated operation to sway public opinion and erode trust in Taiwan’s democratic institutions. The campaign involved the widespread dissemination of fake news through social media platforms and news outlets, coupled with cyber intrusions targeting election infrastructure and government websites.  Intelligence reports identified groups like RedJuliett— operating under Chinese government direction—as key players in the effort to compromise Taiwan’s electoral integrity.

Espionage—spanning both human networks and digital tools—plays an increasingly central role in China’s efforts to infiltrate. In 2024 alone, Taiwan prosecuted 64 individuals for Chinese espionage, up from 48 in 2023 and just 10 in 2022. The scale of activity is longstanding; back in 2017, Taiwanese authorities estimated more than 5,000 Chinese spies were operating on the island. High-profile cases have included retired Rear Admiral Hsia Fu-hsiang and former legislator Lo Chih-ming, both charged with facilitating meetings between former military officials and Chinese intelligence agents. On the digital front, a 2025 advisory from Western intelligence agencies flagged Chinese spyware—specifically “BADBAZAAR” and “MOONSHINE”—used to surveil critics of the Chinese government, including Taiwanese independence advocates, by remotely accessing mobile devices.

Economically, Beijing leverages sudden trade bans and tourism restrictions. In August 2022, following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island, China imposed an export ban on natural sand—a key resource for both construction and semiconductor manufacturing. Simultaneously, Beijing suspended imports from thousands of Taiwanese food and beverage companies, targeting products like alcoholic beverages and seafood. While officially citing regulatory non-compliance, the move was widely seen as a retaliatory measure. Accusing Taiwan of organizing military exercises, China imposed tariffs on 134 items imported from the island. The Ministry of Finance justified this by stating it would suspend concessions on these goods under a trade deal due to Taiwan’s failure to reciprocate.

Diplomatically, China continues to isolate Taiwan by pressuring countries and international organizations to deny it recognition or participation. These sustained efforts not only marginalize Taiwan on the global stage but also fuel uncertainty at home—placing strain on the island’s social fabric, economic stability, and governance structures.

Island’s Defence Capabilities

Since Xi Jinping became president and commander-in-chief over a decade ago, China’s defense budget has more than doubled—from 720 billion yuan in 2013 to 1.78 trillion yuan ($245.65 billion) in 2025. This year, defense spending is set to rise by 7.2%, continuing its steady climb despite economic headwinds from years of sluggish growth. The increase aligns with Xi’s goal of achieving full military modernization by 2035, with investments focused on advanced missiles, naval assets, submarines, and surveillance technologies—strengthening China’s military posture amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly around Taiwan and Ukraine.

Taiwan’s central government budgets for 2024 and 2025 each stand at nearly NT$1.25 trillion(New Taiwan dollar), with social welfare comprising the largest share of expenditures. However, defense spending has steadily increased over the past decade in response to mounting regional security threats.

Source:https://globaltaiwan.org/2023/09/taiwan-announces-an-increased-defense-budget-for-2024/

Taiwan’s defense budget 2025 marks a 6.02% increase from the previous year’s allocation, reflecting a sustained effort to strengthen military readiness.

The budget includes targeted allocations aimed at strengthening various aspects of its military with NT$181.5 billion designated for personnel expenses, ensuring support for active service members. NT$148.7 billion is allocated for operations and maintenance, covering the procurement of components, ammunition, and equipment upkeep. Military investments receive NT$145.8 billion, a significant portion of which goes toward arms purchases from the United States.

Additionally, a special budget of NT$90.4 billion is set aside for strategic upgrades—particularly the acquisition of new fighter jets and the enhancement of sea-air combat capabilities. Building on these efforts, Taiwan is also advancing long-term defense programs like the Indigenous Defense Submarine Program. The government has approved a NT$284 billion project to build seven advanced submarines between 2025 and 2038, as part of its broader effort to bolster maritime defense. Strengthening naval capabilities has consistently remained a strategic priority. This includes NT$8.9 billion allocated for the construction of two next-generation light frigates and NT$7.28 billion for mid-life upgrades to Kang Ding-class frigates, aimed at enhancing their anti-air and anti-submarine warfare effectiveness.

Taiwan has also prioritized the modernization of port infrastructure with the Navy seeking NT$1.165 billion (US$42.18 million) to renovate Wuchiu Port, while long-term upgrades to the Zuoying Naval Base aims to accommodate larger warships. A separate NT$43.84 billion, five-year plan was launched to modernize seven commercial ports, enhancing both industrial and naval logistics. Complementing these efforts, Taiwan marked a milestone in September 2023 with the launch of its first domestically built submarine, Hai Kun, reflecting its drive for defense self-sufficiency.

Ramping up its investment in unmanned aerial systems, the 2025 budget allocates NT$10.4 billion for the acquisition of four high-altitude MQ-9B UAVs to enhance surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. Several domestic firms have secured bids for drone development: with companies like Taiwan UAV focusing on land-based reconnaissance drones; Evergreen Aviation Technologies (EVGA) on ship-based systems; Coretronic Robotics on surveillance, reconnaissance, and micro-drones; and MiTAC on both micro and tactical micro-drones.

Under the 2021 Sea-Air Combat Power Improvement Plan Purchase Special Regulations, Taiwan allocated a special defense budget of NT$236.8 billion—64% of which was directed toward missile development. Taiwan has significantly expanded its indigenous missile production, reaching over 1,000 missiles annually via 16 automated lines—achieving this milestone two years ahead of schedule. Key systems include the Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missile, HF-II and Hsiung Sheng cruise missiles, Tien Kung III air defense systems, and Chien Hsiang loitering drones. These domestically produced weapons offer faster delivery and cost efficiency. However, challenges remain, including limited combat testing, some systems lacking stealth capabilities, and reliance on Chinese-sourced rare earths—an area Taiwan is addressing through recycling initiatives and international mining partnerships.

Both aerial systems and missile development are supported by key players like the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST) and the Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC). The Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC) also plays a central role, producing aircraft like the F-CK-1 Ching-Kuo and AT-5 Brave Eagle which constitute about 34% of Taiwan’s air force inventory.

Taiwan is also developing a domestic satellite network akin to Starlink under its “Five Trusted Industry Sectors” initiative.

Dependence on USA and Limitations

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Taiwan has received arms exports from over a dozen countries since 1950, including Canada, France, Germany, Israel, and the United Kingdom. However, its defense relationship with the United States stands out both in scale and consistency. The U.S. has supplied arms to Taiwan almost every year for over seven decades—excluding only 1950 and 2009—and has sold more than $24 billion in weapons since 2008 alone, including fighter jets, tanks, and missile systems. A report by Strategic Defence Intelligence (SDI) further underscores this dependence, revealing that a staggering 98% of Taiwan’s defense imports come from the United States.

The United States has consistently emphasized its commitment to Taiwan’s security through a broad spectrum of assistance, including Foreign Military Financing (FMF), Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), and International Military Education and Training (IMET). These mechanisms reflect Washington’s strategic interest in strengthening Taiwan’s defense capabilities.

However, under the leadership of Donald Trump, there has been a notable shift in tone. During his presidential campaign, Trump pressed Taiwan to take on greater responsibility for its own defense, urging the island to raise its defense spending to as much as 10% of its GDP. In response, Premier Cho Jung-tai told the Legislature that such an increase was fiscally unfeasible, noting that allocating over NT$2 trillion (approximately US$60.73 billion) annually for defense would exceed the government’s financial limits.

Taiwan’s strategic reliance on U.S. arms sales—formalized under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979—has proven both essential and problematic. One of the most pressing issues has been the substantial delay in arms deliveries from the United States. Currently, there’s an estimated $19 billion backlog in promised weapons systems, which has slowed Taiwan’s ability to modernize its military forces. These delays are due in part to global supply chain disruptions and bureaucratic bottlenecks within U.S. defense procurement systems.

While these transfers are crucial for maintaining defense capabilities, they also expose Taiwan to systemic delivery delays that disrupt military modernization and long-term planning. One prominent example is the $750 million deal for M109A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzers. Initially prioritized to enhance Taiwan’s long-range precision firepower, the deal has faced major setbacks due to “production line diversion.” Originally expected to be fulfilled by the end of 2025, only six of the 40 units are now anticipated in 2026, resulting in a delay of over three years. As a consequence, Taiwan’s mechanized infantry remains reliant on aging M114 155mm howitzers dating back to 1942. Similarly, Taiwan’s  procurement of 2,500 FIM-92 Stinger missiles for a NT$70.1 billion order has seen no deliveries to date, despite being labeled an urgent need. The timeline is now pushed to FY2031. In response, defense delegations have been sent to the U.S. to monitor progress.

Other challenges also continue to hinder Taiwan’s defense modernization. These include limited combat testing of key systems, the absence of stealth capabilities in some platforms, and a critical reliance on Chinese-sourced rare earth materials—an issue it is attempting to mitigate through recycling initiatives and partnerships with international mining ventures. Training and coordination across the armed services also remain underdeveloped, with joint operations and inter-service drills occurring infrequently, reducing overall military cohesion.

Conclusion

Taiwan’s national security landscape is shaped by relentless Chinese pressure across military, economic, cyber, and diplomatic fronts. While defense modernization efforts are accelerating, systemic limitations and heavy reliance on U.S. arms expose strategic vulnerabilities. Strengthening self-reliance and resilience remains key to safeguarding the island’s democratic future.