Recent events in the Middle East have put Türkiye in a geopolitical sweet spot. There have been several changes on the world political scene that has benefitted Türkiye. Starting with the Trump Administration changing the foreign policy of the United States, that lasted 80 years, to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, and the capitulation of the PKK, the balance of power in Asia Minor has changed. These combined events have worked in the favor of Türkiye, reinforcing the geopolitical advantages that Türkiye now enjoys.
The Trump Doctrine Has Alienated Europe
The Trump Administration has upended 80 years of United States foreign policy. At the end of the Cold War, Europe rapidly disarmed and used the savings to create a social welfare state thru subsidies supporting its population with health care as well as other socialist policies. This has left the United States as bearing most of the burden in defending Western Europe. The Trump Administration has changed that.
The Trump Doctrine can be summed up as:
- The United States will no longer be the primary defender of Europe
- If the other members of NATO do not spend enough of its GDP, the United States might not come to that member’s defense.
- If the United States does come to the aid of a country who had not spent enough for its own defense, the United States will expect to be compensated.
Coupled with the public berating of Ukrainian President Kerensky by President Trump and Vice-President Vance on live TV, the European Union held an emergency meeting in London to consult and try to understand the significance of the televised incident. The Turkish Foreign Minister also attended this meeting. With Western Europe finally realizing that President Trump was serious in this alteration of its foreign policy, the members of NATO are bulking up its defense spending. Germany has approved a constitutional amendment that will allow Germany to spend up to $500 billion in debt to dramatically improve its defenses. Poland has announced its intention to increase the size of its military from 300,000 troops to 500,000 troops. France is exploring allowing interest earned on billions of Russian assets to be given to Ukraine to help fend off the Russians. France has recently announced a beefing up its nuclear position by renovating a French air force base to store gravity and missile nuclear weapons. But these measures are not enough. For Europe to succeed in deterring Russia aggression, Türkiye must be a key part of this defensive strategy.
The Collapse of the Assad Regime and the PKK Surrender
The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria benefits Türkiye because Türkiye will no longer need to station significant numbers of troops on its southern flank. Abdullah Ocalan has called for the Kurdish PKK to lay down its arms and accept Turkish governance. By ending its resistance to Turkish governance, the PKK allows Türkiye to reduce its troop strength in the Kurdish area, freeing them up for use elsewhere. Like the Caucuses.
Türkiye’s Geo-Political Interests in the Caucuses
While mostly ignored by the West, the Caucuses is a choke point entrance into the Middle East from Russia. On the other hand, it is an opening from the Middle East into Russia’s southern plains. This is a sensitive area for Russia, as once an enemy is past the mountain passes, there is only flat plains with no natural defensive positions.
Political Instability in Georgia
In October of 2024, the Pro Russian Georgian political party “Georgian Dream” claimed victory for control of the government. There have been numerous accusations of fraud in the election as well as Russian interference. The opposition party called the elections fraudulent with accusations of ballot stuffing, and intimidation of voters at polling places.
In December of 2024, the sitting President of Georgia, Salome Zurabishvili refused to step down because of these allegations of fraud and demanded new elections. However, that was not to be, and Mikheil Kavelashvili of the Georgian Dream Party is now the President of Georgia. He was sworn in on December 29, 2024. Former President Zurabishvili agreed to vacate her residence at Orbeliani Palace but insisted that she is still the legitimate president. While President Kavelashviti has denied tilting towards Russia as the opposition’s parties claim, the current course of the new government clearly is tilting towards Russia.
Since the election and the government’s decision to suspend talks with the European Union, there have been massive protests in the street of the capital Tbilisi. Because of this, in a move designed to tighten its grip on power, Georgia Dream has been pushing a legislative package that has drastically increased penalties for civil disorder, sometimes extending penalties by years. These moves by Russia to extend its influence in Georgia threatens stability in the Caucuses, and this is a direct threat towards Azerbaijan and an indirect threat to Türkiye.
Azerbaijan and Türkiye
Türkiye and Azerbaijan are close allies. The leaders of both countries have often said the Türkiye and Azerbaijan were one country, simply different states. During the second Nagorno-Karabakh war, Türkiye supported Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan was able to ultimately reclaim the territory Azerbaijan had lost during the first Nagorno-Karabakh war.
With Russia once again extending its influence into the Caucuses, Türkiye has the resources to reinforce the Azerbaijanis should Russia attack Azerbaijan to regain to reacquire control of the Caucuses. With the Turkish military in an advantageous geographical position, for now that route for Russia is blocked. By being able to block a Russian advance into the Caucuses, Türkiye solidifies and protects Nato’s extreme left flank. This also prevents Russia from extending its influence into the oil rich Middle East, securing the European Union’s energy supply.
Cultural Issues Facing Türkiye and the European Union.
The stability of a democratic government in Türkiye has always been a cause of disagreement among the European Union members, as to whether Türkiye belongs in the European Union.
As of this writing the Turkish people are demonstrating in the streets protesting the arrest of Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan’s principal opponent for the upcoming presidential election in Türkiye. Erdogan has called out the police, and despite a ban on demonstrations, the Turkish people are clogging the streets.
It is unclear how this political crisis will end. What is known is the Elon Musk has blocked Erdogan’s rivals from using the platform X to communicate with each other. This would suggest that President Trump is supporting Erdogan’s government, though that is just a matter of speculation. While there has been some reaction in financial markets, the Turkish Central Bank has calmed the money markets, at least for now.
