Authors : Silvia Jultikasari Febrian & Afifah Azzahra*
In 2024, China and the Cook Islands signed a strategic agreement that shocked the international community. The agreement covers cooperation in various fields, including infrastructure development, exploration of deep-sea resources, and improving strategic relations in the 2025-2030 period. This bold move is part of China’s long-term strategy to expand its influence in the Pacific region, an area that has historically been within the sphere of influence of Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. By establishing closer partnerships with small island states in the Pacific, China is asserting its position as a major actor in regional geopolitical dynamics. This strategic move opens up new opportunities for China’s economic expansion and strategic interests.
Australia and New Zealand are concerned about a potential shift in the balance of power and China’s increasing influence in the foreign policies of Pacific countries. New Zealand, which has close historical and economic ties with the Cook Islands, was “appalled” by the agreement and concerned about its strategic implications for regional stability. Australia, a key US ally in the Indo-Pacific, is also taking these developments seriously, especially considering that such cooperation could potentially pave the way for a more dominant Chinese presence in the Pacific. The US views this as part of China’s broader strategy to challenge the Western-led international order. China’s growing presence in the region is a contributing factor to the growing geopolitical rivalry between Beijing and Washington, which now includes trade and maritime security.
The application of this agreement to regional security stability is an important issue that must be studied. The Cook Islands stated that this cooperation was economic in nature and did not necessarily grant exploration or mining permits to China. However, some believe that this agreement could pave the way for the expansion of Beijing’s influence in the protection and security sector. Environmental aspects are also a concern, considering that exploration of deep-sea resources contained in this ecosystem has the potential to have a significant ecological impact on the Pacific marine ecosystem.
As the largest archipelagic country in the world with a strategic position in the Indo-Pacific region, Indonesia also needs to consider how this new dynamic can influence its foreign policy. As competition between China and Western countries in the Pacific intensifies, Indonesia must tread carefully, avoiding any involvement in major conflicts of interest in the region. Indonesia’s role in ASEAN and other regional cooperation forums is very important to maintain Indo-Pacific stability. In this context, the question arises about what implications the China-Cook Islands agreement could have on overall regional security. Furthermore, does this geopolitical shift also have the potential to affect Indonesia’s position in regional political dynamics? This paper will further explore these two aspects to understand the broader impact of this agreement on Indo-Pacific stability.
China-Cook Islands Deal: What Happened?
The agreement between China and the Cook Islands, signed on February 14, 2025, marks a new chapter in diplomatic and economic relations between the two countries. The agreement includes the development of dual-use infrastructure, exploration of deep-sea resources, and increased strategic cooperation between 2025 and 2030. The dual-use infrastructure envisaged in the agreement could serve a variety of purposes, both for civilian purposes such as the development of ports and communications networks, as well as potential strategic uses that could strengthen China’s presence in the Pacific region. Exploration of deep-sea resources is also a key aspect of the deal, given that the Cook Islands have abundant reserves of seabed minerals, including cobalt and copper, which are in high demand in the technology industry. With global competition for natural resources increasing, China’s involvement in this exploration has led to speculation about how much Beijing’s influence will expand in the region. Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown stressed that the deal aims to boost the small country’s economy, which faces challenges such as climate change and limited resources.
However, the agreement received mixed reactions from the international community, especially from New Zealand, Australia, and the United States. New Zealand, which has historically had close ties to the Cook Islands as a former colonial nation, was “appalled” by the deal. The New Zealand government believes there should have been more consultation before the deal was signed, given the long-standing close ties between the two countries. Winston Peters, a spokesman for New Zealand’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, expressed concerns about the transparency of the deal and stressed that the public had a right to know the contents of the deal. New Zealand’s stance reflects broader concerns about China’s growing influence in the Pacific, particularly in countries traditionally within Wellington’s diplomatic and economic sphere of influence.
Apart from New Zealand, Australia and the United States are also watching the deal with great caution. Washington and Canberra have long sought to maintain their stability and influence in the Pacific through economic assistance and strategic partnerships with island nations. China’s increasingly dominant presence in the region could change the balance of power, especially if the deal leads to improved infrastructure that could potentially be used for military purposes. Australia and the US see the deal as part of a broader pattern of Chinese geopolitical expansion, in which Beijing is actively pursuing partnerships with Pacific island nations to expand its diplomatic and economic reach.
Meanwhile, in the Cook Islands itself, the agreement has sparked debate and protests from the public. Some groups believe that the government made its decision to sign the agreement without adequately consulting the public. They worry that China’s involvement could lead to excessive economic dependence, which could ultimately threaten the country’s sovereignty and autonomy. Environmental issues are also a top priority, as exploration of deep-sea resources threatens to damage marine ecosystems, which are an important source of income and livelihood for local communities. These protests clearly demonstrate tensions in Cook Islands domestic politics, where economic interests and foreign investment clash with the aspirations of the people, who want policies more oriented towards national sustainability and independence.
The political dynamics of the Cook Islands are closely linked to its relationship with New Zealand. Although the Cook Islands have their own government, many residents hold New Zealand citizenship and depend on economic support from Wellington. New Zealand has been a key partner in the development of the Cook Islands, particularly in terms of infrastructure investment and economic assistance. In recent years, the Cook Islands government has sought to diversify its economic partnerships, exploring options other than continuing to rely on New Zealand, including establishing economic ties with China. The Cook Islands government signed this agreement, in part, because of the potential for deep-sea mineral exploration to generate new revenue.
The agreement between the Cook Islands and China is very important. This agreement impacts bilateral relations between the two countries and has broader implications for geopolitical dynamics in the Pacific region. The Cook Islands government views the agreement as a strategic step to strengthen the economy and national development. However, reactions from traditional partners such as New Zealand and concerns from Western countries suggest that the agreement has the potential to create new tensions in the region. Domestic challenges, such as balancing economic interests with demands for transparency and environmental sustainability, are also reflected in the Cook Islands’ internal protests. The future foreign policy and political stability of the Cook Islands will be determined by the management of its relations with China and its partner countries.
Balance of Power changes?
The Pacific region has long been an arena for geopolitical competition between major powers, especially the United States, Australia, and New Zealand. However, in the last decade, China has aggressively expanded its influence through economic cooperation, development diplomacy, and strategic engagement with Pacific island countries. Agreements between China and several countries in the region, such as the Cook Islands, mark a significant shift in the balance of power in the region. Island countries that previously depended on Western aid now have new alternatives in the form of investment and strategic partnerships with Beijing.
The main implication of this change is increasing tensions between the Western bloc and China. The United States and its allies have long considered the Pacific region as part of their strategic sphere of influence, with Australia and New Zealand as guardians of regional stability. With increasingly close relations between China and Pacific countries such as the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Nauru, there are concerns that this region will become a new point of conflict in global power competition. China’s strategy in expanding its influence in the Pacific has similarities with its steps in the South China Sea, which has raised tensions with ASEAN countries and the US.
According to data from the Lowy Institute, since 2011, China has invested more than USD 1.5 billion in grants and loans to Pacific island countries. With the increasing number of bilateral agreements such as the one with the Cook Islands, the geopolitical balance in the Pacific continues to undergo transformations that could alter the regional security landscape. This shift has become more pronounced with major infrastructure projects and intensive diplomatic efforts from Beijing.
China’s strategy in the Pacific
China is implementing a comprehensive strategy to expand its influence in the Pacific, involving a combination of economic diplomacy, strengthening infrastructure, and engagement in the security and natural resources sectors. This approach can be seen in several main aspects. China is using initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to strengthen its position in the Pacific. Many island nations in the Pacific are experiencing increasing dependence on Beijing due to the economic assistance provided in the form of soft loans and infrastructure investment. Projects such as port development in Vanuatu, highway construction in Papua New Guinea, and renovation of government centers in the Solomon Islands show how Beijing is strategically exerting its influence in the region. This infrastructure not only supports the local economy but also paves the way for China to strengthen its geostrategic position.
In addition, the Pacific region has a wealth of natural resources, especially in the fisheries and deep-sea mineral sectors. China, which has a technology and manufacturing industry that relies heavily on rare minerals such as cobalt and copper, has invested heavily in exploration of these resources in countries such as Kiribati and Nauru. With the latest agreement with the Cook Islands, Beijing further strengthens its position in the global competition for access to strategic resources. Although China emphasizes that cooperation with Pacific countries is economic in nature, many observers believe that there is an implied military dimension. One striking example is the security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands in 2022, which allows the deployment of Chinese security forces to the country. This is a signal that Beijing is not only seeking to dominate the economic sector but also to build a strategic presence in the Pacific.
Strengthening infrastructure that has the potential to support military interests.
Several Chinese-financed infrastructure projects in the Pacific have raised concerns that the facilities could be used for military purposes in the future. For example, the Chinese-financed Port of Luganville in Vanuatu has specifications that allow use by large military ships. The airport in Kiribati, which is being renovated with Chinese funds, also has the potential to become a strategic facility in trade and defense routes in the Pacific. Additionally, undersea communications projects connecting several Pacific countries with China’s technology-based networks could increase Beijing’s intelligence capacity in the region.
Australia and the US have raised concerns that this infrastructure could be used by the Chinese military to increase its presence in the Pacific, which could ultimately challenge Western maritime dominance in the region. This further strengthens concerns that Beijing is establishing a strategic foothold that could be exploited in future conflict scenarios.
New Zealand, Australia, and US response:
New Zealand has close historical ties with Pacific countries, but its diplomatic and military capabilities are limited in the face of Chinese expansion. As a member of the Five Eyes, Wellington relies on intelligence and alliances with the US, but in practice, New Zealand often takes a more moderate stance than Australia in dealing with Beijing. Wellington’s foreign policy prioritized stability and a softer approach to diplomacy rather than direct confrontation. Meanwhile, Australia has increased diplomatic engagement and economic assistance to Pacific countries in response to China’s expansion. Canberra has launched the “Pacific Step-Up” initiative aimed at deepening ties with Pacific countries, as well as increasing investment in regional infrastructure and defense. Australia is also strengthening its alliances with the US and Japan in response to Beijing’s expanding influence.
Washington is increasingly focusing its attention on the Pacific as part of its broader Indo-Pacific strategy. In 2023, the US reopened embassies in the Solomon Islands and Kiribati as a symbolic diplomatic move to counter Chinese influence. In addition, the US has increased military patrols and security cooperation with Pacific countries to ensure that the region remains in the orbit of Western influence. This move shows that Washington does not want to lose its influence in the Pacific and is trying to stem Beijing’s strategic expansion.
Impact on the Pacific Region
With the agreement on the Cook Islands cooperation agreement with China, China’s political influence in the Pacific region will increase. Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown admitted that his agreement with China only revolved around economic issues and educational scholarships without any agreement in the military sector. Even so, China’s strategy is to put forward soft diplomacy as is done in the Cook Islands; it is feared that it could create dependency for Pacific countries. This is what New Zealand feels as a country of free association with the Cook Islands. New Zealand feels threatened by the decision taken by Mark Brown because there is a lack of transparency both to the public and to the New Zealand government regarding the contents of the agreement.
Not only New Zealand, but also Australia feels squeezed by China’s increasingly dominating political conditions. As a western coalition country, Australia will find it difficult to obtain military defense assistance due to its remote geographical location. ASEAN countries as neighbors have also been dominated by China’s political influence, especially in economic terms, making it difficult for Australia to take over the dominant political power in Southeast Asia. Although it is considered to benefit the Cook Islands’ economy, it is feared that the cooperation agreement with China will increase environmental damage so that natural resources will become increasingly fragile in the Pacific region.
Indonesia’s Impact and Response to the Cooperation Agreement
Indonesia, as a country that is not tied to a particular bloc and has an important role in Southeast Asia, continuously encourages stability in the region and peaceful collaboration. Within the framework of the agreement between the Cook Islands and China, Indonesia will probably remain neutral, emphasizing the importance of respecting sovereign decisions while encouraging transparency and dialogue among Pacific countries. This is in line with Indonesia’s commitment to the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, which encourages inclusivity and collaboration rather than competition.
However, China’s increasing influence in the Pacific region could have an indirect impact on Indonesia. China’s increasingly dominant presence in the region could increase geopolitical competition, which has the potential to affect Indonesia’s strategic interests, especially in aspects of maritime security and resource management. As stated by Rizal Sukma, Indonesia’s foreign policy often tries to balance the influence of major powers in order to maintain regional autonomy. A deal between the Cook Islands and China could upset this balance, especially if it fuels increased tensions between China and Western countries such as Australia and New Zealand.
In addition, Indonesia’s economic relations with China, which is its main trading partner, add another dimension of complexity. Even though Indonesia benefits from investment and trade with China, this country must also overcome the possible negative impacts due to China’s expanding influence in the Pacific region. As stated by Warburton, Indonesia’s way of dealing with these kinds of challenges often involves diplomatic prowess and multilateral participation to safeguard its interests.
The agreement between the Cook Islands and China highlights ongoing changes in geopolitical dynamics in the Pacific, with impacts that extend beyond the region. For Indonesia, this progress provides both challenges and opportunities. As a neutral actor focused on regional stability, Indonesia will most likely advocate for dialogue and openness while respecting the sovereignty of countries in the Pacific. However, China’s growing influence in the Pacific could make Indonesia’s strategic situation more complex, especially regarding maritime security and resource management.
Indonesia’s response will likely reflect its more comprehensive foreign policy approach, seeking to balance the influence of great powers while protecting its national interests. By taking advantage of its position in ASEAN and encouraging multilateral cooperation, Indonesia can contribute to reducing potential tensions and supporting the formation of an inclusive Indo-Pacific region. Ultimately, Indonesia’s ability to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape will be determined by its diplomatic dexterity and dedication to comprehensive regionalism.
*Afifah Azzahra is an International Relations undergraduate student (batch of 2021) at the Islamic University of Indonesia.
