US-China relations have been a focal point for economic policies, emerging technologies, and diplomatic strategy for every US administration this century. President Trump’s first term was no exception. Trump’s isolationist attitude, not just towards China, but also strong US allies, has motivated China to re-engage with other Western nations, further expanding its power and influence. His America-First approach may in fact be emboldening the very power he is attempting to curb.
Trump’s America First attitude won the votes of millions of Americans, but it will do him no favours when dealing with Beijing. Instead, President Trump should revisit the tactics he used in his previous career as a real-estate developer and businessman. A deal-making attitude would promote a united Western front to combat China’s growing influence around the world and prevent the opportunity for the nation to take the US’ place in international organisations and initiatives. Sanja Arežina, Counsellor at the Government of the Republic of Serbia, argues this approach is out of character for President Trump given that his first term and campaign focused on prioritising American needs not just within the US but on the world stage as well. Though it is true that such a strategy is what his base has come to expect from him, he has proven in the past to be more open-minded than he is perhaps given credit for.
President Trump’s America-First mindset represents the culmination of years of the US’s lack of willingness to pay the hefty price of maintaining liberal international economic order. Though some promises were never fulfilled, such as a phase-one trade deal forcing China to purchase more American products, other acts severely disrupted the delicate balance previous presidents had attempted to preserve.
In March of 2018, Trump waged a trade war with China, citing unfair trade practices and claiming the country was stealing American intellectual property. Since then, the US has significantly reduced the inflow of Chinese investment in technology, most recently seen with the short-lived ban of TikTok. President Trump also backed the exclusion of Chinese companies from telecommunication networks in the US as well as several of its partners. Tensions rose during the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, for which Trump blamed Beijing.
China, in turn, is increasing tariffs on US products and has deepened its relationships with US allies. In response to its record low GDP growth of 6.6% after President Trump imposed the tariffs, China had to diversify its trading partners. Trump’s tariffs became an opportunity to reengage diplomatic relations with several US allies and tighten its relationship with Russia. Trump’s America-First practices made China more comfortable developing its economic relations with US allies, increasing their dependence on the country. Though the US may take a tough stance on China, Trump’s method of doing so may open other doors for China.
President Biden decided to keep the tariffs Trump levied on China and imposed more on Chinese electric cars and solar cells. In a period of growing conflict, President Biden also reinvigorated the Quad alliance between the US, India, Japan, and Australia. Strengthening of these ties was not a uniquely American idea, with China following suit and improving its relations with these countries as well. Opponents criticised him for building partnerships with “like-minded countries” to counter China’s growing influence when several other domestic and international causes vied for the administration’s attention and funding. Though Trump also hopes to counter China’s growing influence, his policies traditionally look homeward. The backlash against President Biden’s internationally focused presidency has further fuelled President Trump’s America-First approach, but such an isolationist approach carries its own problems.
President Trump’s cabinet choices send a clear message: China is a threat that must be addressed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz are well-established “China hawks” who push for an aggressive stance on China. In his confirmation hearing, Rubio called the country “the most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted.” Regarding economic policy, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, favours tariffs.
Though this tough approach may be embraced by Trump’s supporters, abroad, its repercussions outweigh its potential benefits. China has continued to improve its relations with US allies, welcoming the UK Treasury Chief in January after a six-year hiatus and the Japanese Foreign Minister after a seven-year hiatus. If the US implements tough China policies while simultaneously retreating from the world stage, the floodgates open for US allies to become deeply influenced, or worse, dependent on China. This would make a Western united front to contain China virtually impossible, further isolating the US from its allies in the process. A tough stance of China does not have to be mutually exclusive to not cooperating with allies, depending on the method Trump uses.
There is hope President Trump may be more flexible in his China policy this time around. Trump’s tech allies have significant business interests in China. Hoping to maintain the donations of people like Tesla, X and SpaceX CEO, Elon Musk, he may take a more moderate approach. Seen in his first term, President Trump’s greatest strength and weakness is his own unpredictability. How Beijing prepares for any financial and cultural changes will determine how much hostility the two nations face. President Biden’s national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, said the US should “practise a disciplined approach” to maintain a productive relationship. President Trump should listen to this advice when weighing the short-term benefits of an aggressive approach with the long-term impacts of an isolationist attitude.
Inviting Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration, it appears that the president may want to start fresh. China’s growing global influence must remain a focus of President Trump’s second term. The US cannot afford to overestimate its allies’ loyalties if the world’s most powerful country isolates itself and allows China to take its place.
