Donald Trump’s largely unexpected and striking victory in the US presidential election could significantly change the dynamics of global geopolitical processes. A significant change in rhetoric, vision of the architecture of world politics, and perhaps the Grand Strategy of a powerful state could affect many actors and subjects of international relations. South Asia is fascinating in this regard. The Indian-Pakistani conflict, the dynamics of China’s growing influence and power, the growing tension around Iran – all these are processes that could be influenced by the new and somewhat revolutionary administration in Washington with its non-systemic and anti-establishment president.
The United States has quite developed relations with India and Pakistan. Washington established official ties with the two South Asian republics in 1947, after the collapse of British India and the two countries’ independence. The Soviet Union played a significant role in the decolonization process, supporting the peoples of Asia, the East, and Africa in their struggle against Western colonialists. Initially, the United States had closer relations with Pakistan, which received a significant portion of aid from Western powers. In all Indo-Pakistani wars, Washington and the West supported Islamabad, while Moscow was an ally of India and provided it with assistance.
During the Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1980s, Islamabad and the Pakistani military became the main allies of the United States. It was through them that the bulk of military aid to the Afghan mujahideen passed. This became the basis for the gradual Islamization and radicalization of Afghanistan and the formation of a network of radical Islamist groups there, including terrorist ones. The Pakistani military played a key role in this process, later becoming influential sponsors and mentors of the Taliban, the Haqqani Network, and other radical groups. After the collapse of the USSR and the formation of a unipolar international system, the role of the United States increased. Both India and Pakistan began to seek support from the world hegemon. The tragedy of September 11, 2001, and the support of the Pakistani military for the first Taliban regime (1996-2001) led to a conflict between Washington and Islamabad. The United States sent troops to Afghanistan and Pakistan became simply necessary for the Americans to implement their policy in the region.
After the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan in 2021, the situation began to change. Pakistan lost the significance for America that it had previously had. And the growth of India’s power and wealth began to attract the United States more and more. Moreover, the confrontation between Washington and Beijing has strengthened India’s role in the global geopolitical struggle.
Donald Trump’s election has been met with controversy in many world capitals. Pakistan is closely monitoring developments in Washington, and despite Islamabad’s many diplomatic efforts to reach out to the new administration, there has been no formal interaction between the two sides. Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi was in the US on inauguration day but was not invited to the event. Moreover, efforts by Pakistani elites to reach out to the new administration in Washington have caused some indignation in Beijing.
At the same time, India’s relations with the new administration are much better. For example, India’s influential Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar attended the inauguration in the most honorable place, in the front row, and has already held meetings with senior officials, including the Secretary of State and the National Security Advisor. In response, Pakistan has sought help from Washington lobbying firms and recently sent a delegation led by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari to facilitate talks with the new administration, according to US media. Even Pakistan’s army chief, influential General Syed Asim Munir, has called on the government to establish formal channels with the Trump administration, especially on issues related to defense and security cooperation. However, the Donald Trump administration has yet to show any interest in Pakistan. In addition, individuals close to President Trump have publicly called for the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and expressed concerns about Pakistan’s governance, particularly its civil-military relations.
The relationship between the US and Pakistan has undergone significant changes in recent years, with strategic priorities shifting. This shift was evident during the previous administration of President Joe Biden, who did not directly engage with Pakistani leaders throughout his tenure. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also did not visit Islamabad, despite frequent visits to other regional players, including India.
Another decision affecting Pakistan is the Trump administration’s temporary suspension of the Afghan refugee settlement program. The president’s order suspended the process of issuing special immigrant visas and admitting Afghan refugees for 90 days. There are currently about 25,000 Afghan refugees in Pakistan who are scheduled to be resettled in the United States, mostly individuals who previously worked with the U.S. military and U.S. contractors in Afghanistan. Under a previous agreement with the Biden administration, the resettlement process was to be completed by September 2025. However, the new administration’s review of the policy has added uncertainty to those awaiting resettlement.
The shift in U.S.-Pakistan relations follows broader geopolitical developments, including the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. In recent years, US engagement with Pakistan has shifted from traditional security-focused cooperation to areas such as climate resilience and trade. Under the current administration, the scope of US-Pakistan cooperation appears to be shrinking. Security concerns related to Afghanistan remain pressing, but the US no longer relies on Pakistan for logistical support after the troop withdrawal. Consequently, there is a little opportunity for high-level engagement between the two countries.
