In How States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy, John J. Mearsheimer and Sebastian Rosato argue that states make foreign policy decisions based on rational calculations driven by the need for survival and power in an anarchic international system. The book critiques other theories like liberalism and constructivism, asserting that the core motivation behind state behavior is a logical response to security concerns, rather than moral ideals or cultural factors. This review breaks down the book chapter by chapter to explore its key ideas and arguments.
The opening of 1st chapter ‘The Rationality of States’ lays the foundation for the book’s central argument: states act rationally in their foreign policy decisions. Mearsheimer and Rosato define rationality as the process of making decisions that maximize the state’s national interest, particularly survival and security, in an anarchic world. They argue that, unlike individuals or leaders, states don’t act impulsively or based on emotions but evaluate their environment strategically. The chapter sets the stage for the book’s critique of alternative theories that emphasize human nature or ideologies over pragmatic calculations.
Second chapter i.e. ‘Realism and Its Critics’ introduces the reader to the realist perspective on international relations, which emphasizes the role of power and security in shaping state behavior. Mearsheimer and Rosato outline the key tenets of realism, focusing on its central idea that the international system is anarchic, meaning there is no global authority to enforce order. They also engage with critiques of realism, particularly from liberalism and constructivism. While acknowledging the validity of some critiques, the authors argue that realism remains the best framework for understanding state behavior, as it is grounded in the material realities of security and power dynamics.
Mearsheimer and Rosato explore the international system’s anarchic structure in third chapter, i.e. ‘The Nature of the International System’ arguing that it forces states to prioritize survival and power maximization. They explain that the lack of an overarching authority leads to a situation where states are constantly concerned about their security. This chapter builds on their assertion that international politics is driven by the competitive nature of state interactions, where security concerns outweigh all other considerations. States are motivated by an enduring need to secure them, which often leads to conflict, especially among great powers.
In fourth chapter i.e. ‘The Rational Calculus of Foreign Policy’, the authors dive deeper into how states calculate risks and benefits when making foreign policy decisions. They argue that states weigh potential threats against available resources and consider the long-term implications of their choices. Mearsheimer and Rosato show that states often make decisions based on what is perceived as the most rational course of action for their security, even if those decisions lead to aggressive actions or wars. The chapter uses historical case studies, such as the Cold War, to illustrate how these calculations play out in real-world politics.
Here, in fifth chapter i.e. ‘The Role of Ideology and Norms’ Mearsheimer and Rosato critique the idea that ideology, norms, or values play a central role in shaping foreign policy. While acknowledging that leaders may be influenced by ideologies, they argue that these factors are secondary to the primary goal of securing national interests. The authors challenge liberalism’s belief that democracies are inherently peaceful and constructive in their international relations. They point out that democratic states, like the U.S., have frequently engaged in military actions when their perceived security interests were at stake, which contradicts the liberal notion of a “democratic peace.”
Sixth chapter i.e. ‘Case Studies of Rational Foreign Policy’ brings the theory to life with specific historical examples that demonstrate rational decision-making in statecraft. Mearsheimer and Rosato examine the Vietnam War, the Cold War, and U.S. interventions in the Middle East to show that foreign policy decisions are not driven by ideological factors but by strategic calculations about power and security. For example, they argue that the U.S. intervention in Vietnam was driven by a desire to contain communism and maintain global influence, not by humanitarian or democratic ideals. Similarly, the authors discuss the 2003 Iraq War as a rational decision by the U.S. to secure its interests in the Middle East, even though the war ended in disaster.
In seventh chapter, ‘The Challenge of Global Power Dynamics’, Mearsheimer and Rosato apply their rationalist framework to contemporary geopolitics, particularly the rise of China and the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Russia. They argue that both countries’ actions, while often viewed as aggressive, are rational responses to perceived threats to their security and power. For example, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its actions in Ukraine are framed as a strategic move to secure its sphere of influence, while China’s growing military presence in the Asia-Pacific region is seen as a way to challenge U.S. dominance. The authors suggest that, in both cases, the countries’ actions are driven by a rational assessment of their security needs in an increasingly competitive world order.
Mearsheimer and Rosato in eighth chapter, ‘The Limits of Rationality’, recognize that while states are rational, this rationality has limits. Misjudgments, misperceptions, and underestimation of other states’ capabilities can lead to unintended consequences. For instance, the authors suggest that the U.S. miscalculated the reactions of both Russia and China in its pursuit of global dominance, particularly with its military interventions and its stance on NATO’s expansion. They argue that while rationality guides decision-making, it is not foolproof, and states can err in their calculations, leading to unintended escalations or conflicts.
The final chapter i.e. ‘The Future of Global Politics’ reflects on the future of international relations, emphasizing the ongoing competition between great powers. Mearsheimer and Rosato argue that the world is entering a new era of multipolarity, where several major powers, including China, Russia, and the U.S., will vie for influence and security. The authors suggest that, as long as the international system remains anarchic, states will continue to act based on rational calculations of their national interests. They conclude that this reality will likely lead to continued friction, competition, and, potentially, conflict.
How States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy provides a thorough, rigorous examination of how states make decisions in an anarchic international system. Mearsheimer and Rosato’s central thesis—that states are rational actors driven primarily by security concerns—challenges the more idealistic theories that dominate much of international relations scholarship. Through a mix of theoretical insights and historical case studies, the authors argue that states’ foreign policies are shaped by a clear-eyed assessment of their national interests rather than ideology or emotional impulses.
The book’s critique of liberalism and constructivism is provocative, urging readers to rethink assumptions about international cooperation, democracy, and norms. However, the authors’ realist perspective might be seen as overly deterministic at times, neglecting the role of non-state actors and international institutions. Nonetheless, How States Think is a valuable contribution to the field, offering fresh insights into the forces that shape state behavior and global politics in the modern era.
