December 8. A historic day for the Syrian people. The long 53 years rule of the Assad family had come to an end. The opposition– led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham, entered Damascus without no resistance. Their lightning fast offensive against the regime force– starting from Aleppo, ended with the toppling of the Assad regime. The thirteen years long war between the regime and the opposition, resulted in more than 6,22,000 people’s death. A new caretaker government has been established. The head of the government has been chosen by the HTS– Mohammad Al Bashir, ex-head of the Syrian Salvation Government from Idlib, Northwestern Syria. However, so many stakeholders in Syria were quite anxious about the shift of power and the sudden regime change, unexpected to many, started to deal with the new government.
When one part of Syria is– controlled by the HTS– getting all the attention from the major players, Raqqa and other cities– having a large portion of Kurdish people are still in between a fight. The HTS took the path towards Damascus; whereas, the Syrian National Army– started to liberate Northern Syria. They launched operation Dawn of Freedom. Where the initial objective was to liberate Syrian lands from Iranian militias and Assad’s forces, restoring citizens’ rights to live in dignity, free from persecution. It also seeks to halt the regime’s relentless assaults on freed areas, safeguarding civilian lives and securing their return to peace. The operation started on December 1. And they brought initial results like the HTS in a few days, capturing thirty-three regime forces on the first day. The first major fighting was seen in Manbij. Where the Syrian National Army and the Syrian Democratic Force engaged in fierceful fighting. A ceasefire was mediated by the US between the two portions on December 12.
But why the Kurdish people are in a crisis? Who are the SDF? How did the Turkish military initiate operations in Northern Syria? What’s going to happen to Kurdish people afterwards? Let’s shed a light upon it.
Looking Back at The Kurdish History and Emergence of the SDF
Before seeing the creation of the SDF, it’s important to see the Kurdish people’s position in the Syrian territory. Kurds are the biggest ethnic minority in the Middle East, estimated at thirty million to forty-five million. They mostly are in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. The number of Kurds in Syria is a large number. The Kurdish population of Syria resides in the Euphrates Valley and is restricted to a few districts in Raqqa, where rural residents began to settle in this rapidly growing metropolis in the 1960s. The two biggest cities in the Jazira region, Qamishli and Al Hasakah, are separated into Arab and Kurdish districts. In Al Hasakah, the former are a minority, whereas they make up the majority in Qamishli. Two million of Syria’s twenty-one million residents were projected to be Kurdish in 2011. The other half were in Aleppo and Damascus, while the other half were in their native lands. Due to the rural exodus from Afrin and Kobanî, there were over half a million Kurds living in Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsoud area alone. Kurdish are mostly Sunni muslim. Around ten to twelve thousand Christian used to live in these areas– which deteriorated in one third since 2011.
The uprising against Assad in 2011, which turned into a violent conflict since 2012; until, recently, the Opposition conquered Damascus. But the Kurdish people had to suffer a ton from opposition forces, Turkey backed militia and ISIS. Then in 2015 a new faction was created from the Kurdish region– Syrian Democratic Force. The SDF is a multiethnic coalition of Kurdish, Arabic, and Christian combatants with assistance from the United States. However, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which were founded three years ago, control it. After the civil conflict began, SDF Commander-in-Chief Mazloum Abdi and other PKK veterans returned to Syria and founded the YPG. The SDF’s ultimate goal is to have an autonomous region recognized internationally, much like the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq. However, like Ankara, Damascus and the opposition force remains sceptical about the Kurds– for their nationalist nature. After some time, another breakthrough had been achieved by the Kurdish fighters; that was the creation of AANES–The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), also known as Syrian Democratic Council or Rojava. This council was primarily led by the SDF. In northern Syria, specifically in Kobani, Afrin, and Jazira, they established self-rule through local councils by 2014–2015. With a focus on decentralized government and multiethnic participation, these councils formally became the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria (DFNS) in 2016 and subsequently changed their name to the (AANES).
The SDF was a pivotal ally of the US, to fight against ISIS. They have shown a remarkable level of professionalism and honesty since their founding in 2015. The multiethnic soldiers led the ground campaign against the Islamic State in Syria and freed a large portion of the northeast region from its control. Where the US and SDF coalition made the change. According to Western observers, the SDF has continuously maintained a strong dedication to minimizing civilian losses and providing security and governance to all—Arabs and Kurds, Muslims, Christians, and Yazidis—makes these accomplishments all the more astounding.
The Turkish-Kurdish Tension: Turkey’s Interference in The Northern Syria
The historical context between Turkish and Kurdish dates back to the 80’s. When the Turkish government started to assimilate Kurdish people forcefully, the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) declared armed rebellion against Turkish military force in 1984. The conflict in Syria– complicated the issue in a broader way. Turkish forces often intervened in North-eastern Syria, claiming the PKK’s (designated terrorist organization in Turkey) allied group YPG is using the territory to carry out incursion to Turkey; seeing it as a security threat in Turkey. Attacking into Syrian territory had intensified since 2015.
Following the Islamic State’s loss of territory in northern Syria to the YPG and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Turkey and its affiliated Syrian militias, such as the Free Syrian Army (FSA), began military operations to retake the areas and drive out Kurdish forces. When the city of Afrin was captured in 2018 as a result of Turkey’s offensive, human rights organizations criticized Turkey for civilian deaths, while Turkey accused the YPG of starting the conflict. Tensions with the YPG have arisen because Turkey has frequently directed its military operations against Kurdish fighters rather than ISIS, despite the fact that they are fighting a similar enemy in ISIS. After the YPG asked the Syrian government for assistance in response to Turkish threats, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad dispatched militias to assist the group. After that, Turkish military often operated offensive action in Northern Syria.
On 6th October, 2019–Shortly after President Trump issued an order on October 6th for US forces participating in the Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) to leave the border region, where they had been collaborating with the Syrian Defence Forces on joint security patrols, Turkish military started bombarding Kurdish fighters positions on a larger scale. Turkish aerial bombardment and land invasion began when it was ensured that the invading forces would not fight with its NATO military equivalents in the United States.
In response to the Ankara Bombing in 2023, The Syrian Democratic Forces in Northeastern Syria were the target of a series of air and ground attacks by the Turkish Armed Forces beginning on October 5, 2023. The Turkish government claims that attackers from Northeastern Syria were responsible for the 2023 Ankara bombing.
The Current Situation and An Uncertainty for The Kurdish People in Syria
In order to battle Kurdish forces in northern Syria following the overthrow of Assad, the Islamist organization HTS formed an alliance with Turkey and its militias, such as the Syrian National Army (SNA). The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander issued a warning that another brutal civil war might result from these increasing strikes. An impending invasion is suggested by reports that Turkey’s military and affiliated militias are gathering at the Syrian-Kurdish border.
The Turkish Backed militia Syrian National Army attacked Manbij, one of the Kurdish populated states– which was taken by ISIS in 2014; which, after two years, The Kurdish fighters with the US alliance regained control over the city. The intensified fighting in Manbij went for four days straight, before a ceasefire was mediated by the US. After SDF suggested a “demilitarized zone” to put an end to the fighting, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller announced on Tuesday that a ceasefire between Turkey and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) around the northern city of Manbij has been extended until the end of the week.
One time ally of the US in battling against the ISIS, SDF and other Kurdish factions are facing a security threat– which can stretch to its existential crisis in the new Syria. In 2019, withdrawing the US forces from Northern Syria saw an offensive by the Turkish military. Back then, Donal Trump was the US president. In the new realm, Donald Trump has been elected as the president again– after defeating Kamala Harris in the 47th presidential election. Trump’s “America First” policy might remove his attention from Syria; adding that he openly described Syria as “Not our Friend”. And in Northern Syria, the non-Arab Kurds’ accomplishments are now under jeopardy. It will be difficult for the Kurds to find a position in the new Syria. Because the fight may go on longer due to the Sunni Arab rebels who toppled Assad with crucial assistance from Turkey, a longtime enemy of the Kurds.
The Kurds have been approached peacefully by the Islamic rebels that rode into Damascus last Saturday. However, days after government forces left the eastern city of Deir al-Zour, Kurdish fighters were brutally expelled by the insurgents. With this kind of approach and aggression, the fate of the Kurdish people is completely uncertain. Amassing Turkish troops in the Northern Syrian border is breathing on the neck of SDF, and it’s evident that the fighting might start once the ceasefire ends. The coalition between the HTS and Turkish militias may cost the autonomy that this specific place achieved with hard fighting wars– shedding blood. The largest ethnic minority in the Middle East has always been used as a political chess piece by different leaders, players. And now facing the threat in Syria, can there be a peaceful resolution with the Kurdish people? Time is the biggest answer of this most asked question right now.
