Authors: Kelvin Benny and Amit Binesh*
Abstract: Located in the crossroads of civilizations, the region of Darfur marks the transition from the Sahara to Sahel. Sudan under British colonisation developed as a colonial state apparatus dominated by the Riverine Arab elite in Khartoum. While this sowed the seeds of marginalisation of Darfuris and South Sudanese. In the post independence period, this marginalisation caused more conflict in the region. This was accompanied by the Arabisation and Islamisation policy of the government of Omar Al Bashir which caused conflict in Darfur and South Sudan. The growing aridity and conflict for pastures between Darfur african tribes and Arab militia like Janjaweed caused conflict in Darfur to simmer. Post 2003 with rise of insurgency in Darfur, followed by military suppression by regime of Omar al Bashir and genocide in Darfur. This militarisation of society and the subsequent independence of South Sudan led to loss of oil revenue to Sudan. In 2013 Janjaweed was transformed to Rapid Support Forces under Hemeti. Subsequently RSF made ties with Saudi Arabia and UAE and took part as mercenaries in Yemen. Battle hardened RSF troops led by Hemeti who became rich by gold trade led Sudan to a third civil war in 2020 against Sudanese Armed Forces. The ongoing civil war has ethnic dimensions which can also impact Chad. The ongoing activities of the Russian Wagner group adds to this.
History of Darfur
Darfur, an arid region lies in the cross section of history and various civilizations. It was the region where traders, missionaries and conquerors traversed. It can be considered as a periphery which separates the Arab North African region from Non Arab Africanised Sahel region. It was the region which witnessed Mahdist revolt in the colonial period. Historically it was an independent Sultanate1. Darfur allied with the Ottomans during the first world war. It was by the British , the independence of this Sultanate and Darfur ended. The British annexed the region with their colony of Sudan which was then a condominium under Anglo Egyptian agreement. During the colonial period, the region was avoided by British authorities and in Sudan power was concentrated in riverine Arabs who benefited from colonial education and bureaucracy. This development mirrored what happened vis a vis Sudan and South Sudan later where riverine Arabs from Khartoum marginalised the locals.
Darfur Conflict and Sudan
The basic reasons of the conflict in Darfur lies in ethnic tensions which is related to sharing of limited resources like arable land and it is exacerbated by growing aridity in the region. Historically Darfur is home to african ethnic groups like Zaghawa, Masalit and Fur and it was in the latter the region is named as Dar Fur. It was the drought in 1983 which increased stress over resources like arable land. Subsequent Sudanese government’s have preferred tribes like Rezaqat identified as Arab in sharing resources and power while the African tribes are marginalised from the government machinery which is monopolised by Riverine Arabs from Khartoum. This marginalisation is accompanied by military suppression. In this context the current Darfur conflict started in 2003 when rebels from the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) attacked government installations. This was followed by a brutal government crackdown in the region which affected the common people. Sudanese government allied with notorious militia like Janjaweed engaged in actions that is equivalent to ethnic cleansing and genocide leading to death of 3,00,000 people while the world watched silent. The regional conflict was intertwined with the politics in neighbouring Chad where Zaghawas held much sway. This conflict also had geopolitical implications as despite various condemnations, countries like Russia, China, Iran supported the Sudanese government while there are reports which observed Darfur rebels receiving Israeli and Chadian aid. The regime of Omar Al Bashir (1989-2019) and its policy of pitting Arab tribes against African tribes has caused the conflict to simmer. While South Sudan achieved its independence in 2011 causing Sudan to lose much of its oil revenues. This made the regime find other sources of funding and it led the regime to transform erstwhile Janjaweed to current Rapid Support Forces in 2013. Newly formed RSF found its fortune in enrolling as mercenaries for UAE and Saudi Arabia in the Yemen civil war. This exposure to a war made RSF more battle hardened along with ambitions of its leader Muhammad Hamdan Dagolo aka Hemeti who also had deep stakes in sudanese gold business. This concentration of power and experience in battle made RSF more dangerous. An anti-government protest in 2019 led to the overthrow of Omar Al Bashir. .The moment was captured by the Burhan- Hemeti duo who captured power in Sudan hijacking the popular revolution. This led to sowing seeds of the third Sudanese Civil War which had huge implications for Darfur.
Current political trajectory in Darfur
The current Sudanese civil war between Sudanese Armed forces on one side and Rapid Support Forces on another side has pitted various communities in Darfur as earlier. Darfuri Arabs are allied with RSF and are actively recruited by them. The current war has witnessed some political changes with many Darfuri rebel groups like JEM and SLM going for “Better Evil” that is aligning with Sudanese Armed Forces in order to fight against their immediate tormenters ie RSF. There are reports of military advances made by the Joint alliance of SAF and Darfuri Rebel groups Joint Forces in the state of Darfur. The ongoing war in Darfur have also impacted politics in Chad with Mahmet Deby in power and many of his recent steps which helps RSF being resented by a section in Chadian Armed Forces who keeps ethnic kinship with the Joint Force in Sudan. The recent appointment of General Ali Ahmat Aghabache as Minister of Public Security and Immigration in Chad by Mehmet Deby government is seen as an appointment of a Pro-RSF member in an important ministry which oversees the control of 1400 km Chadian Sudan border. Apart from endogenous factors like ethnic mosaic the major exogenous factor which allows the ongoing civil war to proceed is continuing assistance RSF receives from external patrons like UAE. This is underlined by recent reports that Chad is being used by the UAE to route supplies to RSF. The government of Mehmet Deby has closed eyes or is either unable to prevent recruitment of Chadian Arabs by RSF to its rank. Considering the internal and external factors, conflict in Darfur is expected to linger for long.
Possible Future scenario
Considering the strength and potential source of recruits, the conflict is expected to linger for long with Darfur bearing the brunt of war and ethnic cleansing. The flow of refugees to Chad has increased and this will drag elements from Chad including RSF allied Arabs as well as Zaghawa and Masalit officers allied with Joint forces and in case may lead to sowing seeds of ethnic conflict in Chad for future. As we observe the rising influence of Russia across sahel, Russia may still prefer a working relation with RSF to protect their mining interests in the Central African Republic and another power France which is rapidly declining its influence in Sahel due to Wagner support to military juntas may try its level best to maintain influence in Chad which forms the border of Francafrique in Sahel. The control of Sudan’s international borders with Libya, Chad and Central African Republic make the battles for controlling such regions more important. A scenario in which RSF losing its control of such borders may prove fatal to its logistics and may lead to eventual decline of RSF as a potent fighting force in this civil war. While in reverse, if RSF is able to hold on control of such borders it may attract more recruits causing the instability to spillover to other regions like Chad, Central African Republic, Libya etc.
Importance of Darfur
Located in the Sahel and bordering various countries like Libya, Chad, Central African Republic and South Sudan Darfur is geostrategically very important. This makes the control of the region important in the stability of the wider region. This position makes Darfur a major point in the flow of people and arms attracting interest of various Non State Actors and even groups like Wagner in the region as they have various mining and other economic interests in the neighbouring countries. Post Gaddafi era , Libya has acted as a fountain for illegal arms supplies in the region and this along with nomadic movement across the current westphalian states make control of Darfur a precarious task. In order to stem the flow of refugees across the region Darfur matters. This makes organisations like the European Union interested in the political affairs in Sudan and in Darfur. The ongoing Russia France cold war in Sahel may be impacting Darfur in near future as both sides are trying to expand and maintain their sphere of influence by direct use of force or using intermediaries. The ongoing alliance between SAF and rebel groups like JEM and SLM may take steps for devolution of power and resources as SAF currently recognise the need to include Non Arab ethnic groups to hold on power in the region. Overall the region is expected to be the chess board of grand geopolitics in the wider Sahel region.
*Amith Binesh. Independent researcher. Bachelors in English Language and Literature, Madras Christian College. Areas of Interest: American Domestic and Foreign Policy, Diaspora, Cultural Marxism
