Outer space, being a host to crucial international infrastructure, has become crowded and intense amid competition between global powers, an increased number of space-faring states and private entities. Reforming international space treaties and developing responsible behavior in space to mitigate the risks of inadvertent escalation in the outer space domain has become crucial for these actors. The issue has been extensively discussed in Islamabad Non-proliferation Conference conducted by Islamabad-based think tank Strategic Vision Institute. The growing power contestation in space has resulted from different conflicts on Earth which have been spilled over to outer space. That being the case, the nature of space is that it has always been used for military purposes since the launch of the first satellite Sputnik in 1957 by the USSR and now the great power competition, aspirations of the commercial sector and progress in innovative space technologies have further increased the militarization of space.
In contemporary international infrastructure, the modern militaries are heavily relying on space not only for navigation, communication and intelligence gathering but also for strategic assets such as early warning system of ICBM. The counter-space capability which is also not a new dynamic and has been present since the 1960s, can disrupt strategic and communication capabilities and produce a crisis.
The counter space capabilities have evolved rapidly by including both reversible (jamming and spoofing) and irreversible (kinetic intercepts and proximity manoeuvres) measures. These capabilities, especially proximity manoeuvers which provide attractive options for space-to-space missions, can increase the chances of misinterpretation and lead to further escalation in space. Furthermore, technological advancements have provided a boost to proximity manoeuvers through the deployment of smaller and lighter spacecraft that could get close to other satellites without much assistance. In addition, due to their small size, they can easily remain covert without the fear of detection.
All these developments in spacecraft technology have not only pushed forward the space race through providing fast, manageable and less costly satellites but it has also increased the possibility of miscalculation and misinterpretation. For example, the deployment of a probe or robotic arm for debris cleaning can also be misunderstood as an attack on satellites and other critical systems because robotic arms can also be repurposed to inflict damage on satellites. Therefore, to mitigate the effects of counter-space capabilities, states should adopt responsible behavior in space by reaffirming international space treaties, primarily the Outer Space Treaty 1967 rather than just investing in technology. Responsible behavior is also crucial to manage the accidental disruption through debris which can inflict damage akin to a weapon.
To establish international norms for space, it is imperative that the rules governing human activities in space, which are already out of date, should also be modified and extended to address the dramatic and rapid changes in space dynamics. In this regard, the Outer Space Treaty 1967 which is the foundation of space law should not only be implemented in its full spirit but should also be reviewed to catch up with contemporary developments. OST can help in development of responsible state behavior because it not only prohibits state sovereignty in outer space but also denies the installation of weapons of mass destruction in orbits or on other planets. The treaty also prevents military infrastructure and testing of weapons and manoeuvers. Overall, the main problem with the treaty is that it describes peaceful space expeditions, however, in reality, space is not used for peaceful purposes and it has never been. The civilian uses of space such as scientific explorations, environment monitoring, and navigation are by-products of military uses of space. The other major problem that the international community faces in space is the changing and rapidly evolving nature of space amid the increased installation of satellites. The owners of these satellites are not only countries but also private entities of the commercial sector. Therefore, international space treaties such as the Outer Space Treaty should include militaries and the commercial sector in their addresses. The review of the Outer Space Treaty should also be done on a regular basis which requires cooperation among major space powers: U.S., China, Russia and European countries. These countries need to establish international norms and behaviors regarding issues such as cleaning of space debris, close manoeuvres and the principle of non-interference.
The workable solution to these problems is developing responsible behavior among states that can be established through dialogues and communication exchange on perceived and real threats. Promotion and advocacy of international treaties that can establish rules on proximity manoeuvres and prevention of unauthorized close approaches to satellites should also be considered to build mutual trust. Furthermore, bilateral communication protocols which include pre-launch notification and immediate communication in the case of technical issues or malfunctions can also prevent misinterpretation.
