Donald Trump has yet to assume office as President of the United States, yet his articulated foreign policy agenda is already reverberating across the global stage. It is evident that significant adjustments are expected in the U.S. approach to great power competition, with many of these shifts already being outlined or signaled. However, amidst the focus on recalibrating relations with major powers and regions of strategic importance, one area stands out for its ambiguity—Central Asia. Unlike other regions with vested U.S. interests, where policy directions have been at least partially defined, future American policy toward Central Asia remains an enigma.
This lack of clarity raises critical questions about the region’s position in the broader framework of U.S. foreign policy under the new administration. Central Asia, long sidelined in U.S. foreign policy, has traditionally been viewed through the lens of its utility to American objectives in Afghanistan. The region’s strategic significance was overshadowed by more immediate concerns in Ukraine and the Middle East. Under Biden, the war in Ukraine dominated the geopolitical agenda, leaving little room for meaningful engagement in Central Asia. However, with Trump’s well-documented skepticism toward long-term U.S. involvement in Ukraine and the Afghanistan issue now ostensibly off the table, Central Asia emerges as a region with untapped strategic potential.
This shift could position Central Asia as a pivotal element of U.S. foreign strategy. The region sits at the crossroads of Russian and Chinese spheres of influence, making it a critical theater for great power competition. Its strategic geography, resource wealth, and growing role in global connectivity through the Middle Corridor highlight its importance. Recognizing and acting on this potential could signal a significant departure from previous administrations’ limited focus on the region, setting the stage for a more robust and strategic engagement with Central Asia under a Trump-led administration.
In this evolving scenario, the region’s stability will depend on two critical factors. First, the countries of Central Asia must adopt carefully crafted strategies for cooperation, balancing their relationships with external powers while preserving regional autonomy. Second, consistent and meaningful Western support will be essential. This support must go beyond sporadic engagement or viewing the region solely through the lens of counterterrorism or democracy promotion concerns. Instead, it requires a comprehensive and forward-looking approach that emphasizes economic development, infrastructure investment, and political partnerships to enhance the region’s resilience against external pressures.
Central Asia holds untapped potential for counterbalancing Russian and Chinese influence, but also for advancing Western economic and strategic autonomy. The Middle Corridor, for instance, presents a viable alternative for transcontinental trade and energy transit, reducing dependence on routes dominated by China and Russia. The region’s wealth of resources—ranging from traditional energy reserves to renewable energy potential and rare-earth minerals—offers critical opportunities for diversifying supply chains and strengthening the West’s resilience in critical sectors. Neglecting these opportunities not only undermines U.S. interests but also weakens its strategic posture in an increasingly multipolar world.
The window for the United States and its allies to deepen cooperation with Central Asia is wide open but steadily narrowing. The region stands at a critical juncture, facing pressing vulnerabilities that require targeted investments in economic connectivity, food and water security, and climate resilience. These areas not only represent opportunities for meaningful engagement but also serve as crucial leverage points for stabilizing the region and strengthening its autonomy.
One of the most urgent priorities is the region’s digital transformation. Without significant Western investment, technology, and expertise, Central Asian countries may have little choice but to adopt Chinese digital infrastructure through initiatives like the Digital Silk Road. This shift would further entrench China’s influence in the region, with far-reaching implications. Dependence on Chinese hardware and software could expose Central Asia to cybersecurity risks, compromise data sovereignty, and deepen its technological alignment with China, sidelining Western norms and standards in critical areas.
The stakes are high. If the West fails to recognize Central Asia’s growing strategic importance, the region risks becoming a contested battleground between China and Russia, with all the instability and uncertainty that entails. Conversely, a thoughtful and sustained Western strategy could help Central Asia become a model of pragmatic multilateralism, benefiting not only the region itself but also broader global stability.
