After analyzing the Burma (Myanmar) war both from abroad and on-site for 20 years, this author’s view is that ending the conflict will require official Western recognition of the National Unity Government (NUG) and limited military support. Western backing for a federal democracy that grants autonomy to key ethnic armed organizations could help displace the Tatmadaw. To support this effort, rebels would need weaponry, especially anti-aircraft systems. Once stability is achieved, Burma will need international democratic support to facilitate free and fair elections. Bringing most ethnic regions under a federal system would improve quality of life for the majority, save lives, and prevent Burma from falling into China’s orbit as a vassal state.
The conflict in Burma is a brutal, complex struggle rooted in decades of military rule, ethnic tensions, and persistent demands for democracy, dating back to the country’s independence in 1948. Since then, the conflict has largely centered on armed ethnic organizations (EAOs), representing Myanmar’s 135 ethnic minorities, who have long fought for autonomy against successive military juntas.
The February 2021 coup, which ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy, reignited resistance like never before. Previously, many Bamar (the ethnic majority) and urban residents viewed ethnic resistance groups as terrorists. After the coup, however, the Bamar came to realize the futility of hoping for free and fair elections under military rule, leading many to take up arms by forming People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) or joining forces with ethnic armed organizations.
In just the past three years, this intensifying conflict has claimed the lives of over 5,000 civilians and internally displaced 3.3 million. The total number of Burmese refugees who have fled the conflict may be as high as 4 million, including approximately one million Rohingya in Bangladesh and between 2 and 3 million Shan, Karen, Karenni, and other ethnic minorities seeking refuge in Thailand. Meanwhile, the conflict has devastated Myanmar’s economy and currency, leaving citizens to grapple with severe food
Since gaining independence from British rule in 1948, Burma has endured the rule of at least three military regimes, each of which seized control of the nation while ethnic groups continued their fight for autonomy. Successive juntas have ruled the country with an iron fist, denying fundamental rights such as freedom of speech, press, and assembly to all citizens. These regimes enforced their authority through arbitrary detentions, torture, and murder. While repression affected the entire population, ethnic minorities faced even harsher conditions, as they reside in resource-rich regions bordering Thailand and China.
Various juntas, including the current State Administration Council (SAC), have relied on trade and investment from China to fund their military operations and stabilize the economy. This dependence on resource revenue placed the ethnic minorities in direct conflict with the juntas, as both sides sought control over valuable trade routes and resources. Over time, ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) such as the Karen National Union (KNU), Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and Shan State Army emerged, dedicated to defending their communities from military encroachment.
In 2011, Myanmar appeared to be on the path toward democracy, with reforms that led to the release of political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, who later became the de facto civilian leader. However, the 2008 constitution allowed the Tatmadaw to retain substantial control, holding key ministries and security forces. Although there were hopes for a new democratic era, the government operated as only a quasi-democracy, with the military controlling enough parliamentary seats to block the National League for Democracy (NLD) from enacting significant reforms. Additionally, ethnic minorities were largely excluded from participation in this new government. As a result, longstanding ethnic conflicts continued, especially in resource-rich border areas, as these groups persisted in their fight for autonomy and the Tatmadaw (government army) continued fighting for control of resources and territory.
On February 1, 2021, the Tatmadaw overturned Myanmar’s 2020 election results, in which the National League for Democracy (NLD) had won by a landslide. They seized control of the government, arresting opposition leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi and other NLD members. The coup ignited mass protests nationwide, marking the start of the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM). Civil servants launched widespread strikes, and citizens took to the streets in the “Spring Revolution,” demanding a return to democracy.
In response, the military cracked down brutally, killing hundreds and arresting thousands. The junta used live ammunition, tear gas, and mass arrests to suppress dissent. By mid-2021, fear of reprisals had silenced the streets, but the resistance had shifted to guerrilla tactics. Civilians across urban and rural areas began forming local militias, known as People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), which coordinated with the National Unity Government (NUG)—a parallel government established by NLD members and other democratic leaders in exile, including, for the first time, representation from ethnic minorities.
Before the coup, a number of the EAOs had been in ceasefires with the government, but several reactivated after the coup, and several have switched sides from the junta to the pro-democracy movement. Many PDFs now operate alongside Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), and several EAOs have expressed varying degrees of support for the National Unity Government (NUG). Equipped with small arms and improvised explosives, the PDFs and EAOs face a heavily armed Tatmadaw, which is supplied with weapons from China and Russia and financially supported by China.
The unity among resistance forces has transformed the conflict compared to previous decades. The involvement of college-educated Bamar has introduced new tactics and technologies, including the use of homemade and modified civilian drones, which have become some of the most effective tools in the fight for democracy. Coordinated attacks among various groups are also yielding greater success. A notable example is Operation 1027, an offensive launched on October 27, 2023, by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BTA)—comprised of the Arakan Army (AA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).
This alliance launched attacks on key positions in northern Shan State, capturing multiple towns and over 300 military positions near the China-Myanmar border. By securing these strategic areas, the 3BTA disrupted vital trade routes and weakened the junta’s hold in northern Myanmar, significantly impacting the Tatmadaw’s operational strength in the region. Operation 1027 has placed unprecedented pressure on the junta, which has had to rely heavily on airstrikes and artillery due to losses on the ground. According to David Eubank, head of the Free Burma Rangers, a frontline aid organization, most resistance casualties are now due to airstrikes. Until the resistance can acquire anti-aircraft capabilities, such as Stinger missiles, victory remains a distant hope. Unfortunately, the resistance lacks means to counter the Tatmadaw’s Chinese and Russian aircraft, leaving them vulnerable to airstrikes.
Although the rebels lack the capacity to counter airstrikes, they have recaptured roughly 70-80% of the country’s territory. According to Karenni Army leaders, “The Tatmadaw are like prisoners now. They cannot leave their bases.” David Eubank echoed this assessment, explaining that any junta troop movements now require division-strength support with air cover to avoid ambush and potential casualties. In Karenni State, and likely across most rebel-held regions, the junta can no longer resupply by land and is forced to rely on supplies delivered by aircraft.
Western countries, including the United States, the European Union, and Canada, have imposed targeted sanctions on Myanmar’s military leaders and businesses linked to the Tatmadaw. While the U.S. and some allies have provided limited non-lethal aid to the National Unity Government (NUG), they have yet to recognize the NUG as Myanmar’s legitimate government and have not committed to any military intervention. With both Russia and China holding seats on the U.N. Security Council, a U.N.-sanctioned intervention remains out of reach.
China seeks stability in Myanmar to protect its investments and ensure the continuous flow of resources but does not want a Western-aligned democratic government on its border. Without a cut in China’s financial and military support to the junta, the conflict could continue indefinitely, leaving millions more lives destroyed in its wake.
The conflict could be resolved through a U.S. or international military intervention or by the U.S. recognizing the NUG and providing the rebels with the necessary resources to counter Tatmadaw aircraft. A selective supply of Stinger missiles, weapons, and logistical, communications, and targeting support via Starlink along with shared satellite intelligence could empower the pro-democracy forces to oust the junta and hold general elections. There is considerable speculation that various EAOs, such as the Shan State Army South (SSA-S) and the United Wa State Army (UWSA), may resist conceding territory to a national, democratically elected government. However, many ethnic leaders have expressed willingness to agree to a federal system granting autonomy to ethnic regions. This compromise could make democracy achievable in up to 70% of the country—a substantial improvement over the current situation, where life is unbearable for much of the population.
