Following the ‘India First’ policy, Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih adeptly cultivated robust economic and strategic bilateral relations with India, enhancing cooperation across various sectors. His administration placed a strong emphasis on India’s importance as a key ally, especially in the areas of development and security. But when Mohamed Muizzu, a prominent leader of the People’s National Congress Party, became president following a quick ascent propelled by the populist “India Out” campaign, this course was drastically altered. A growing resentment against perceived Indian dominance in the archipelago was reflected in this ad, which struck a deep chord with some parts of the Maldivian population.
With his election, Muizzu marked a significant shift from Solih’s pro-India position and a turning point in Maldives-India ties. Approximately 80 Indian army soldiers were in the Maldives to service two military helicopters and a Dornier 228 aircraft that India had supplied. The Muizzu government ordered them to leave the country immediately after taking office as president. Nonetheless, the Muizzu administration appears to have changed its stance on India throughout the months. As reported by Indian media outlet NDTV, analysts claim that the Maldivian president has made a diplomatic reversal on the India issue. Mohamed Muizzu has long been known as China’s closest companion. When he went to China right after becoming a power and signed several deals, India’s worries increased. Since then, the Maldives and China have gotten closer. However, he stated that his government would not let any disruption to India’s security when he visited the country on a bilateral visit a few days ago, his first time as president. Though, he traveled to Delhi four months ago as a guest to witness Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third swearing-in ceremony. Anyway, what might be the cause of the Maldives’ diplomatic reversal suddenly?
The Maldives is on the verge of a financial breakdown. The state of the economy did not significantly improve even after Muizzu took office. Two other people, including Maryam Sheuna, the minister of the Maldivian government, also disparaged Modi during his visit to Lakshadweep. As a result, the Indian Parliament reacted negatively to the Maldives. Every year, a large number of Indian visitors travel to the Maldives. As a result, calls for a boycott from India caused financial losses for the Maldives, which rely heavily on tourism. After expressing regret, the three ministers were removed from their positions. Nevertheless, not much has changed in the Maldives’ relationship with India.
The Maldives’ foreign reserves have been sharply declining during the past few months. The most recent statistics indicate that their reserves have barely grown to $44 billion. The Maldives will be able to pay for imports for a month and a half with this amount of money. Since the nation must import nearly everything from oil to rice, wheat, and pulses from overseas, this is unquestionably a serious dilemma. Furthermore, the Maldives’ credit rating was lowered by the international agency Moody’s last month, citing a sharp rise in the nation’s “default risk,” or the chance of defaulting on outstanding foreign debt.
During his visit to India, Muizzu held discussions with S. Jaishankar, the Indian Foreign Minister, followed by meetings with President Droupadi Murmu and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In an interview with the Times of India, he remarked on India’s importance as a key ally for the Maldives, highlighting that their friendship has been fostered through cooperation. While the Maldives engages with a variety of foreign nations, it maintains that no Maldivian initiatives should threaten India’s security.
Muizzu asserted that the Indian Army’s withdrawal shortly after he assumed power was a domestic matter for the Maldives, reflecting the directives of its citizens. He maintained that the exit of Indian troops would not negatively affect India-Maldives relations. Following a biweekly meeting at Hyderabad House in Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized that both nations engaged in substantial discussions aimed at enhancing cooperation across various sectors, including addressing economic challenges, improving connectivity, and fostering cultural ties. After the meeting, President Muizzu affirmed that the Maldives and India will perpetually remain partners, united by their mutual dedication to fostering regional economic development and ensuring peace.
“India is a key partner in the socio-economic and infrastructure development of Maldives. and has stood by the Maldives during our times of need. We look forward to concluding the free trade agreement with India which will enable us to harness the full economic potential between our countries and to increase Indian investments in both our tourism and various sectors of development.”
-Mohamed Muizzu
In a pivotal meeting, the Government of India announced a substantial financial assistance package of $50 million to the Maldives, aimed at bolstering its economy. Additionally, the two nations agreed to a significant currency swap arrangement amounting to $30 billion, facilitating transactions at the island level. Indian officials also revealed plans to support a major infrastructure initiative in the Maldives by introducing the RuPay card, issued by the National Payments Corporation of India, which is expected to enhance economic transactions and tourism.
President Mohamed Muizzu expressed profound gratitude to India for this generous financial aid, highlighting its critical role in alleviating the mounting pressure on the Maldives’ foreign reserves. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs further noted that next year marks the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between India and the Maldives, a milestone celebrated as a Diamond Jubilee. In a gesture of goodwill, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has accepted President Muizzu’s invitation to visit the Maldives later this year, signaling a renewed commitment to strengthening bilateral ties.
The evolving trajectory of India-Maldives relations is garnering considerable attention, particularly regarding the anticipated reactions of China, South Asia’s hegemonic power. Notably, following his inauguration in November of last year, President Mohamed Muizzu prioritized visits to Turkey and China, marking a significant departure from the traditional diplomatic norm where newly elected Maldivian leaders first engage with India. His January visit to China was perceived as a deliberate slight towards India, further exacerbated by the Maldives’ decision to permit a Chinese research vessel to dock at its port in February. This incident raised alarms in New Delhi, as Indian authorities suspected the vessel of being involved in intelligence-gathering activities that could bolster Chinese military operations in the region.
President Muizzu has openly embraced a pro-China stance, which aligns with his administration’s broader strategic pivot. The implications of this shift are profound, as it not only signals a recalibration of Maldives’ foreign policy but also poses challenges to India’s longstanding influence in the archipelago. The recent developments underscore a critical juncture in regional geopolitics, where the Maldives is increasingly positioning itself within China’s sphere of influence, potentially reshaping the balance of power in the Indian Ocean.
Observers assert that despite President Mohamed Muizzu’s earnest endeavors, the Maldives has not reaped substantial economic benefits from its burgeoning relationship with China. This disillusionment compels President Muizzu to confront a sobering reality: the necessity of seeking assistance from India, a historically steadfast ally. The Maldives, strategically positioned in the Indian Ocean, has long been a focal point of geopolitical interest. The recent pivot towards China, marked by ambitious infrastructure projects and economic partnerships, has not yielded the anticipated economic prosperity. Instead, many analysts contend that the Maldives finds itself ensnared in a cycle of debt and dependency on Chinese investments that have yet to translate into tangible benefits for its populace.
Furthermore, the collaborative initiatives between India and the Maldives aim to bolster various sectors, including tourism, agriculture, and infrastructure development. The establishment of an Agricultural Economic Zone and enhancements in air connectivity are indicative of a strategic framework designed to unlock the full potential of Maldivian resources while fostering sustainable development.
