The developments in Bangladesh have again shifted the attention of the world towards instability of the South Asian region. The crumbling of relatively stable Bangladesh has sent shockwaves in the entire region. India being the biggest economy and the only country in the region to have a stable democratic setup needs to rebalance its manner of engagement with its neighbours. In the last five years, India’s neighbourhood had witnessed several developments starting from coup in Myanmar where junta continues to rule, Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, Sri Lankan economic crisis and subsequent replacement of Rajpakshas with Wickremesinghe, Imran khan led PTI’s movements and protests in Pakistan, Nepal’s rotating chair of prime ministers and now Bangladesh regime change and the taking over of caretaker government under the military surveillance. These instances have exacerbated the prevenient tensed environment of the region. India’s ambitions of being the major power is now being challenged in its own backyard. It is now important to look closely to all the developments and their impact on India’s security and foreign policy.
EASTERN FLANK
Indian eastern flank has now been heated up in last few years. The porous border and illegal migration from Myanmar and Bangladesh to India has been a long-standing issue but since last couple of years the intensification of Junta’s assertiveness against the rebels of Myanmar has compelled a lot of them to take shelter in the Eastern states of India while Bangladeshi nations often enter India illegally in search of better opportunities and most of them being the persecuted minorities. India shares 1643km of border with Myanmar and as of 2023 , around 74,600 refugees from Myanmar are living in India and as per estimates 54000 of them fled to India after military coup in 2021. Since the civil war continues in the Myanmar and the rebels consisting of various ethnic groups keeps on fighting, it remains difficult for India to engage in the country. Rebel groups in Myanmar controls a large chunk of territory and are engaged in severe conflict.
Sheikh Hasina provided the stability to Bangladesh and kept moving economic integration with India. But with her removal from power, it is largely expected a reset in the Indo-Bangladesh ties. India’s reluctance to criticise autocratic rule of Sheikh Hasina and hasty acceptance of election results despite the opposition boycotting it was largely seen as an endorsement to her and this did not go well with the civil society and the opposition. There are some genuine anti-India sentiments on the streets of Dhaka. From Boycott India movement to the attacks on the minorities especially Hindus are being attributed to these sentiments. Now the caretaker government has taken form under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus seems to engage with the Indian leadership. The situation remain uncertain regarding the new rulers of Bangladesh as caretaker government needs to conduct the elections in free and fair manner. Illegal migration from Bangladesh border has always remain a concern for the security agencies of India. In 2016, Minister of state for home affairs informed the parliament that there are around 20 million illegals Bangladeshi migrants residing in India.
WESTERN FLANK
US withdrawal from Afghanistan was a setback to India’s efforts and since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan there has been no formal engagement with the regime. Though apprehension of the return of violence with the Taliban have not yet proven true and now rulers in the Taliban are showing no signs of expanding their war to the region at large. Despite this the situation in Afghanistan remains precarious and concerning for the region as it has been the centre for the opium production all over the world. Since, Taliban has been cut off from the formal mechanisms of economic structure, it is important to be vigilant to stop becoming it a hub of narcotics. Rights of the women remains a concern for the world while dealing with Taliban apart from Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for terrorist organizations.
Pakistan struggling with its own developed problems starting from military dictating political decisions and subsequent protests after the removal of Imran khan from power amidst the allegation of collusion between army chief General Bajwa and the opposition. Despite being in prison, Mr. Khan’s supporters were able to get a large chunk of vote share and the prior protests of May 9,2021 showcased the volatility of the situation where even military installations were targeted by the protestors and these slogans were raised against the army. Protests are expected to intensify as the trial of Imran khan moves ahead. Pakistan is fighting on many fronts, skirmishes with Taliban, against the resistance of Balochis through BLA, against the terror of TTP, protests of people of Gilgit against Pakistani state, protests in Gwadar, Sindh and Karachi. Terror outfits in hands with the authorities do exploit this state for their recruitment and collection of funds by radicalising the youth.
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN CONFUSION
Nepal in the north is grappling with the political uncertainty and the revolving chair of the prime ministers. Since 2008, Nepal has seen power transfer around thirteen times and no government has yet completed its tenure. The longest tenure was of KP Sharma Oli from 2018 to 2021 of 3 years and 88 days. With the political uncertainty in Nepal, there remains a challenge for India to engage constructively with the rulers.
Economic crisis of Sri Lanka also exposed the volatility of the region where India stood up as a first responder to it. Presidential elections of Sri Lanka are due next month which has already been delayed by a year. Easter bombing and Covid 19 had a devastating impact on the economy and the stability is important for the recovery.
REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS
Events taking place in these countries have regional impact. Similar visuals were seen in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh when protestors stormed in to the presidential palaces in Sri Lanka, Sheikh Hasina’s residence and the residences of top military officers of Pakistan. The democratic setup is not taking off in the region and is mostly engaged in the internal conflicts. This region hosts more than 1.5 billion people. States like Afghanistan and Myanmar are in a anarchic situation where there is very little respect for human rights where various ethnic and tribal groups are fighting against the regimes operating in those areas. This has the potential to spill over in to larger domain which we witness in India’s northeast from Myanmar. Dire economic and political challenges tend to push youth towards extremism and that remains a challenge for India to tackle the rising Radicalization in India as well as in the region.
India needs to reassess its manner of engagement with the neighbours. It needs to have a robust policy to engage with all the stakeholders of the polity in the neighbouring states. As it was seen in the case of Maldivian People’s National Congress and Bangladesh Nationalist party and Communist party of Nepal under KP Sharma Oli as political parties where there are some anti- India sentiments. India needs to have communication and engagements with all the stake holders including civil society members, army generals and leaders of ethnic and tribal groups.
