India needs to reassess its strategies in Myanmar by learning from the experiences in Bangladesh

When student-led protests in Bangladesh got out of hand, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was suddenly forced to resign, leave her country and take refuge in India.

When student-led protests in Bangladesh got out of hand, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was suddenly forced to resign, leave her country and take refuge in India. In Bangladesh, where the youth unemployment rate stands at 15.7%, according to the World Bank, the idea of reinstating a quota system that would allocate 30% of government jobs to families of those who fought for independence from Pakistan in 1971 was not accepted by many students. Protesters’ clashes with police and pro-government activists escalated into violence, leading to the deaths of more than 300 people.

Bangladesh Army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman has dissolved parliament and met the demand of student leaders to name Nobel laureate and economist Muhammad Yunus as the country’s transitional leader until elections can be held.

This is a significant blow to India’s Act East Policy. The nation was strengthening its relations with Bangladesh under Hasina’s Awami League government. During her tenure, India found a government that was focused on anti-terrorism, friendly towards it and crucial for the development of its Northeast. Thus, New Delhi preferred her to stay in power.

Regardless of which government comes next, India’s relations with it are unlikely to be as warm. The opposition parties in Bangladesh harbour some resentment towards the Indian government. They have accused India, the world’s largest democracy, of interfering in Bangladesh’s political landscape for its own benefit. Moreover, India has not made substantial efforts to have relations with other political parties in Bangladesh.

Currently, as Hasina seeks refuge in India, the country is cautious about overtly supporting the ousted leader, as doing so could complicate its relationship with the next government in Bangladesh.

Hasina won her fourth consecutive term in a controversial election on 7 January 2024. The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), boycotted the election, alleging unfair practices such as the imprisonment of opposition politicians, the suppression of dissenting voices and electoral manipulation.

This serves as a lesson for India: when democracy in a neighbouring country appears to be under threat, the focus shouldn’t solely be on the current leaders in power. The real question is whether India will learn from this situation and adjust its strategies and diplomatic approach towards Myanmar. Similar to Bangladesh, India also shares its border with Myanmar.

The country formerly known as Burma is now gripped by civil war. In 2021, Myanmar’s military toppled the civilian government in a coup. Since then, revolutionary armed organisations and resistance forces have gained control of significant areas.

Battlefield advances made by rebel groups in Myanmar against the military junta have effectively halted a critical US$484 million transport project financed by India. The military junta lost control over the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport (KMTT) project which seeks to link India’s landlocked northeast to the seaport in the Rakhine State capital Sittwe. It is a crucial part of India’s Act East Policy.

A large area in Rakhine state and southern Chin state has been taken over by the Arakan Army, an ethnic armed organisation in Myanmar. An Indian delegation led by the upper house was sent across the border on 29 February 2024 to hold talks with the rebel group. The KMTT project’s legal status is uncertain as the Arakan Army is a non-state actor, despite its military gains.

Since the coup, India has adhered to a strict policy of officially engaging only with the Myanmar junta. At the same time, India has cultivated below-the-radar contacts with rebel groups, including the National Unity Government (NUG), which is composed of elected lawmakers and members of parliament ousted in the coup. Despite these efforts, India has done little to formalise or strengthen these relationships. In April, during an interview with the Indian news website Wion, Zaw Kyaw, spokesperson for the NUG’s Office of the President, urged India to reassess its engagement with the military junta and consider formally engaging with the NUG.              `

On the other hand, China’s diplomatic strategy in Myanmar has been multifaceted, aiming to maintain stability and safeguard its interests. In January of this year, the NUG issued its first formal policy statement on China, pledging to protect Chinese economic investments and enterprises. The NUG acknowledged China’s status as a global superpower and affirmed that Myanmar remains committed to upholding its obligations under any treaties or agreements, including boundary treaties, signed between the two countries before the military coup.

In recent years, China has significantly increased its presence around India, causing concern in Delhi. South Asian countries have gradually leaned towards China, with Nepal now governed by a regime more aligned with Beijing’s interests. Similarly, the Maldives replaced its pro-India leader with one favouring China and Sri Lanka continues to be heavily influenced by Beijing. The fall of Hasina’s government in Bangladesh could further tilt the region towards China.

Ruchika Saini
Ruchika Saini
Ruchika Saini is a journalist from India who currently lives in the UK and writes about global affairs, international diplomacy and human rights. You can reach her at ruchika.sainikv[at]gmail.com.