Led by the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, a congressional hearing in June 2024 on Dr Anthony Fauci and the origins of COVID-19 revived the unpleasant memories of the pandemic. Initially intended to be bipartisan, the hearing unsurprisingly devolved into partisan conflict, with Republicans attacking Fauci and Democrats defending him.
Although China was merely background information during the hearing, closer examination reveals that the Republican Party (GOP), with an eye on the 2024 presidential election, is strategically linking China’s negative image to the so-called wrongdoings of the Democratic Party, thereby turning China into a partisan issue.
As the Biden administration continues to frame the US-China relations as a “strategic competition,” the GOP finds it increasingly difficult to accuse Democrats of being too soft on China to gain political points. Given the Democrats’ reluctance to investigate the pandemic’s origins, focusing on this issue remains one of the most effective ways for Republicans to criticise Democrats and bring the China issue back to the forefront of the US foreign policy debate.
Linking the Biden Administration’s Accountability to China
Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984 and President Biden’s chief medical adviser since January 2021, has been accused by the GOP of involvement in gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which Republicans widely believe to be the origin of COVID-19.
In 2023, when the GOP launched its investigation into the origins of the pandemic, Republican Representative James Comer, chairman of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee, stated that Republicans would “follow the facts” and “hold US government officials who took part in any sort of cover-up accountable”. They also sent letters to Dr Fauci and senior Biden administration officials, including National Intelligence Director Avril Haines, asserting that their investigation would cover “executive branch policies, deliberations, decisions, activities, and internal and external communications related to the coronavirus pandemic”.
By linking the origins of COVID-19 in China with Fauci and other government agencies under the Biden administration, Republicans aimed to accuse Democrats of covering up the lab leak theory for the Chinese government. This tactic is not new to them. During the 2022 midterm elections, one of the widespread right-wing conspiracy theories claimed that the Omicron variant was part of a coordinated scheme by Democrats to win elections.
The Timing of Playing the “China Card”
Yet, the pressing question remains: why did the GOP choose to play the “China Card” now, despite China not being an immediate concern? The answer lies in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Typically, the “China Card” is strategically wielded for partisan gain as elections draw closer. To ensure its effectiveness, the China issue must be salient.
However, debates about China in America often notably subside whenever the United States faces a significant foreign policy challenge. For instance, the vocal congressional debate over China policy abruptly ceased following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, and Congress remained relatively silent about China throughout the US Desert Shield and Desert Storm operations. Similarly, the 9/11 terrorist attack on America subdued the China debate within the United States, which was then primarily focused on the threat posed by a rising China to US interests.
Today’s United States is mired in debates over the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and the Ukraine-Russia war, both of which show no signs of imminent resolution. Despite continuous Republican critiques of Biden’s handling of these conflicts, the Biden administration has yet to make any significant missteps that could be exploited by the GOP. On the one hand, Biden has been proactive in providing aid to Ukraine, framing his effort as the defence of bulwarks of democracy against authoritarianism. On the other hand, despite mounting opposition from within the Democratic Party regarding his Gaza policy, he has remained steadfast in supporting Israel’s right to self-defence.
Biden’s careful management of the two ongoing foreign crises has left China the most viable option for the Republicans to exploit. However, historical patterns suggest that the China debate typically resumes several months after the resolution of urgent foreign events. At this juncture, waiting until that point would coincide with the final days of the election, a politically risky move for the GOP.
Moreover, the anti-China momentum in Washington has begun to wane following the political departure of key GOP China hawk leaders such as Kevin McCarthy and Mike Gallagher. Therefore, it is imperative for the GOP to elevate the salience of the China issue sooner rather than later. Revisiting the origins of COVID-19 could serve as a strategic move to redirect attention towards China, lending credibility to their attacks on the Democrats.
The COVID-19 Origins in the 2024 Election and U.S.-China Relations
Another crucial factor behind the GOP’s decision to use the COVID-19 origins to attack Democrats is Donald Trump. With Trump emerging as the GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee, Republicans are leaving no stone unturned to ensure his successful advancement to the general election in November. Trump’s widely criticised handling of the pandemic would undoubtedly be used against him during the election, as seen during the first presidential debate. Therefore, shifting blame onto Fauci and emphasising the lab leak theory serves as a diversionary tactic to deflect attention from the former president’s perceived failures in managing COVID-19.
Moreover, while recent polls indicate a rise in favorability among Republicans towards Trump following his guilty verdict in the New York hush money trial, it nonetheless dealt a significant blow to the GOP on the legal front. With half of Americans supporting Trump’s conviction, Republicans needed a more substantial moment to offset the negative impact. The debate over COVID-19 origins, with its implications of questioning the Biden administration’s governance and accountability, appeals strongly to the right-wing base while also being acceptable to moderates and undecided voters.
A broader implication is that the GOP’s push for further investigation into COVID-19 origins could ignite a new disinformation conflict between the US and China. At the height of the pandemic in 2020, Chinese officials, despite lacking evidence, suggested that an American service member who participated in a military sports event in Wuhan might have brought the virus to China. In response, the US military, under the Trump administration, launched an anti-vax campaign by creating fake online accounts to counteract these claims. China retaliated by advancing the conspiracy theory that the virus originated from a US Army research facility at Fort Detrick, Maryland, and created its own network of fake social media accounts to spread this narrative.
If Trump were to win the 2024 presidential election, it is likely the lab leak theory would be vigorously promoted, given that his administration was a major proponent of it initially. His return to the White House would undoubtedly energize Republicans keen to validate the lab leak theory. Meanwhile, although the Chinese government has scaled back its “wolf warrior” diplomacy since abandoning its Zero COVID policy, its authoritarian pivot in recent years suggests it might not hesitate to engage in another disinformation battle with the US if needed.
As the situations in Gaza and Ukraine remain stagnant, the approaching election is poised to further politicise the China issue compared to the past two years. The debate over COVID-19 origins is one of the few areas where Republicans can exploit without significant backlash. Anticipating this, Biden has responded by adopting a strategic approach: adjusting US-China relations without pursuing significant systemic changes.
This allows him to present himself as a pragmatic leader appealing to both domestic China hawks and international actors advocating for a stable Sino-American relationship. Hence, it is expected that the two nations will experience a period of détente marked by intermittent disputes. Substantial changes in the relationship are more likely to occur after the election.
